(Dolphins Strengths) – The Dolphins defense has been outstanding this year, with the top rush defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 3.4 yards per carry, and the 10th best pass defense in the league. Andrew Luck will struggle agains the fierce pass rush lead by Cameron Wake. Regardless of who starts for the Dolphins, be it Tannehill or Moore, they will be facing a Colts defense without corner Vontae Davis. Moore performed well last week, so the quarterback situation isn’t a worry. The Dolphins would be more favored with Tannehill though, as he can make plays with his legs, and he isn’t afraid to pull the trigger.
(Colts Strengths) – Andrew Luck had one of the best days of his young career last week against Tennessee, and that was on the road where he has struggled. At home, Luck has been fantastic, and he will need the home field advantage this week against a tough Dolphins defense. Donald Brown and Vick Ballard won’t be factors, so the Colts will rely on the arm of their rookie. Coby Fleener is missing this game, so Dwayne Allen could be the favorite target of Luck’s today if Reggie Wayne gets blanketed.
Key Matchup: The Dolphins pass rush versus the Indianapolis offensive line is the most important matchup, due to the Colts reliance on Andrew Luck. If they can keep Luck upright throughout the afternoon, the Colts offense will be able to move up and down the field, but if Luck gets rattled, he will make some rookie mistakes, and he can’t afford them against this defense.
(Bears Strengths) – The Bears are extremely talented on both sides of the ball, and have a defense that scores as much as some of the worst NFL offenses, but they have their struggles. They struggled against a weak Detroit Lions team, and a weak Carolina Panthers team, and both games they almost gave the game away. If not for a poorly thrown Cam Newton pick six last week, they would have lost. But the Titans will not give them much trouble defensively, as they have given up almost 100 yards rushing in every contest, so Forte and Bush must be excited. Not to mention the safety play of the Titans has been horrible, so expect Marshall and Cutler to play backyard football all day.
(Titans Strengths) – Chris Johnson is going to have trouble against this defense, although he has been having success lately. Hasselbeck will have to throw the ball more, and get out of his comfort zone. He has been playing extremely careful football lately, and the Titans need him to throw more to win this game. The Titans will be able to disrupt the Bears offensive line with their improved pass rush led by Derrick Morgan.
Key Matchup: The Bears offensive line versus the Titans defensive line will ultimately be the key, because if Cutler is given time in the pocket, he will be able to pick apart the Titans secondary with ease, but if he is constantly picking himself up from off the ground, he will be forced into some Cutler-like mistakes, and give the ball up.
Mike’s Pick – Bears
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 5* TITANS / BEARS OVER 43 (BUY THE HOOK)
NFL Picks Week #9
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Giants (Pick #3) Vegas Line: Giants -3.5 Vegas Total: Steelers/Giants O/U 47.5
Mike’s Lowdown
(Steelers Strengths) – The Steelers defense is not the same without Troy Polamalu, and it has shown mostly in their run defense. The Steelers defense has not been up to snuff this year, and Big Ben will have to make up for it’s shortcomings. He has been great this year, and is likely to have another great outing against a Giants secondary that has been pitiful. In general the Giants defense has been bad, 23rd in the league against the run, meaning the hard running Jonathan Dwyer will get some lanes, and get the tough yards.
(Giants Strengths) – The Giants, like the Steelers, rely on their offense, and their clutch quarterback to win football games. Eli Manning and his duo of elite wide receivers are tough to stop. The Giants will likely run the ball a lot against a weak Steelers rush defense to take the pressure off of Manning, then go to the play action that they run so well. The front four of the Giants has been heating up lately, especially last week after a Jason Pierre-Paul pick six. The Steelers offensive line has not been good, but the ability of Roethlisberger to escape in the pocket has led to only 13 sacks being allowed. The Giants will have to capitalize on opportunities that the Steelers give them.
Key Matchup: The key matchup in this game will be Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz versus the Pittsburgh secondary. The Giants offense is a vertical one outside of the run game, and these two wideouts are tough to contain. Hakeem Nicks catches everything thrown his way, while Victor Cruz has the breakaway speed to burn elite corners and safeties. If the Steelers can limit big plays and force Manning into a dink and dunk offense, they will be able to shut down the run game as well.
Mike’s Pick – Giants
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 8* STEELERS / GIANTS OVER 47 (BUY THE HOOK)
NFL Picks Week #9
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints Vegas Line: Saints -3 Vegas Total: Eagles/Saints O/U 51.5
Mike’s Lowdown
(Eagles Strengths) – The lack of touches that LeSean McCoy gets week to week is quite the head scratcher. How does he not receive 20-25 touches a week, and about 5-6 receptions? Andy Reid just loves to throw the football, and speaking of that, he has decided to roll with Michael Vick one more week at quarterback. Luckily for Vick, he will get to play the league’s worst defense, a defense that made Matt Cassel look competent. The pathetic Saints defense will not be able to contain DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, and due to their horrible pass rush, Vick will be able to stand in the pocket and find them downfield. They also possess the 31st run defense, so if McCoy gets a decent amount of carries, he will find huge lanes.
(Saints Strengths) – On the other side of the ball, Drew Brees is still playing tremendously. Not to mention the Eagles defense hasn’t been that much better lately. Nnamdi Asomugha has been invisible lately, and they will need him to slow down Marques Colston. Jimmy Graham will also be at an advantage due to matchups, so expect those two receivers to get plenty of looks. The Eagles are almost on par with the Saints at the pass rushing department, so Brees will also get plenty of time.
Key Matchup: This game is going to be a shootout, and the key matchup will be the turnover battle. Whichever quarterback turns the ball over more, or team in general, that team will lose. Its as simple as that in this game. The Saints defense is so bad, that the offense is always playing catchup. And the Eagles have been shooting themselves in the foot all year with turnovers, and have failed to rally as an offense after giving them up.
Mike’s Pick – Eagles
INCARCERATED BOB’S PICK – 20* SAINTS -ML (-135)
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Mike & Incarcerated Bob’s “Fantasy Sleepers” (Week 8)
For those keeping score…from last week, 3/5 of my sleepers scored over 12 points.
1) Titus Young, Detroit Lions – Titus Young had his best day as a pro last week against a tough Seattle defense. The way the Lions offense seems to be running is that Calvin Johnson is a redzone decoy, and Stafford utilizes Young and Broyles. Young will once again benefit from Megatron taking all the attention, and not to mention he is playing the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars.
2) Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles – You know that defense every year in fantasy that you start every player that plays them? Yeah this year that is the Saints, and expect Maclin to have a great day. Nobody on the Saints is talented enough to keep up with him or Jackson.
3) EDIT: Isaac Redman, Pittsburgh Steelers – Jonathan Dwyer has been placed on the inactives, and with Mendenhall out, Redman gets the start by default. Going against a weak run defense, and in a dink and dunk Todd Haley offense, Redman could get a fair amount of touches.
4) Ben Tate, Houston Texans – The Buffalo Bills are one of the worst 3 defenses in the league, and the Texans have the best rushing tandem in the league. Foster will get his points, but I can see Tate getting a touchdown and a fair amount of carries against a porous defense.
5) Darius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders – Carson Palmer loves throwing deep balls to his speedy receivers. Heyward-Bey had one catch last week, but it was for a 40 yard score. This week he goes up against a terrible Buccaneers secondary, so I see him and Denarius Moore taking advantage of the opportunity.
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Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (Pick #1)
Vegas Line: NY Jets -2
Vegas Total: Jets/Dolphins O/U 38.5
Mike’s Lowdown
(Dolphins Strengths) – Ryan Tannehill surprisingly has been very good this year with the very questionable receiving corps he has to throw to. Brian Hartline has been a nice story for them, becoming the number one receiver in Brandon Marshall’s departure. The Dolphins won’t need to rely on throwing the ball though, because before his injury against the Jets last time, Reggie Bush was gashing the Jets, rushing for 61 yards on just 10 attmepts before he had to leave the game. The Dolphins will likely rely on Bush early and often in this game, because the Jets rush defense has become a shell of its former self. They are 25th in the league against the rush, and Bush will take advantage of this. The Dolphins aren’t facing a high powered passing attack, with the number one receiver being Jeremy Kerley. The only thing they need to worry about is Shonn Greene, because he has been running very well as of late. If the Dolphins force the game into Sanchez’s hands, it will likely result in disaster for the Jets.
(Jets Strengths) – The Jets took their divisional rivals, the Patriots, to overtime last week and lost due to a boneheaded fumble by Sanchez while taking a sack. They played well though against a weak Patriots defense, capitalizing on the mistakes from the Patriots special teams. Sanchez is still making decisions that make you shake your head, such as taking a sack on 3rd down on a drive to tie the game. He completed 46 percent of his passes in the contest, something that will need to improve against a better Dolphins secondary. The Jets will need to run the ball to take some pressure off of Sanchez, and Shonn Greene has been on a hot streak lately. A big strength for the Jets this week will be their pass rush, due to rookie Coples playing very well, and going up against a struggling Dolphins offensive line. The Jets could harass Tannehill all day, and tip the game in their favor.
Key Matchup: Reggie Bush versus the Jets defense will be the key matchup today. Before the Jets knocked Bush out, he was having a great day against them, and it looked to be a 150 yard day, but ended up with only 60. Bush will be able to find similar running lanes against the Jets unless they can stack the box and force the Dolphins to throw. If Bush can establish his presence in this game, it will be a long day for the Jets.
Mike’s Pick – Dolphins
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 5* NY JETS -2
NFL Picks Week #8
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (Pick #2) Vegas Line: Detroit Lions -2.5 Vegas Total: Lions/Seahawks O/U 42
Mike’s Lowdown
Are the Lions returning to the Lions we all grew to love? Last week’s performance against the Bears was nearly unwatchable. I swear they’re cursed still, 2 fumbles inside the Bears 20, Calvin Johnson dropped a wide open 30+ yard reception, and he also dropped a touchdown. If the Lions want to crawl back into the ridiculously difficult NFC North race, they need this win.
(Seahawks Strengths) – The Seahawks have won games because of their defense, their ability to run the ball, their defense, and Russell Wilson coming up clutch. I said defense twice, because that is the main reason, and it isn’t even close. Russ Wilson has been solid, although the Seahawks are 31st in the league for passing, he has won games with late touchdown (or touchception) throws to Golden Tate against the Packers, and Sidney Rice against the Patriots. Marshawn Lynch has been awesome as usual, he has rushed over 70 yards in every single game this year except 1, and that was against the Patriots. The Seahawks have an intimidating defense, with the two top press corners in the league; Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. Sherman, dubbed himself Optimus Prime to go up against Calvin Johnson, and that is a very intriguing matchup.
(Lions Strengths) – The Lions have struggled offensively and defensively this year, but lately it has been offensively. Who could have guessed that Stafford would regress this much? Last year he threw 41 touchdowns, this year, he has 5 touchdowns in 6 games. The Lions run game has been average at best, so Stafford will need to return to form in this game if the Lions want a chance to win.
Key Matchup: The Seattle secondary versus Calvin Johnson will be the top matchup in this game, because Johnson in the key to a Lions victory. Sherman and Browner will be the top corners that Johnson has faced this year, and he has the ability to out muscle them, but Sherman is a tough press corner, he will be all over Johnson from the snap to the time Stafford throws him the ball.
Mike’s Pick – Seahawks
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 5* DETROIT LIONS -2.5
NFL Picks Week #8
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (Pick #3) Vegas Line: NY Giants -2 Vegas Total: Cowboys/Giants O/U 48
Mike’s Lowdown
(Giants Strengths) – Victor Cruz is making a case for one of the best in the league, especially after last week’s 73 yard score against the Skins to answer RG3. The Giants passing attack has been great this year, but the rushing attack will be very important in this game. Stud linebacker Sean Lee is out for the season for the Cowboys, so Ahmad Bradshaw will be able to take pressure off of Manning. Hakeem Nicks is still hobbling, so Cruz will be the most reliable receiver, and he can’t have the same outing that he did last time against Dallas.
(Cowboys Strengths) – The Cowboys have played the Giants 4 times in their last 11 games, and every single game has had over 60 points scoring. This game will be Romo vs. Manning again, and Romo needs to step up big like he did in the kickoff game this year. Dez Bryant is doing his usual thing, which is being unreliable, so Miles Austin and Kevin Ogletree will be the primary targets for Romo. Witten is getting better each and every week, so he will be a factor in this contest. The run game has been a huge question mark, even when Murray was in the lineup. Even Brandon Carr has been struggling lately for the Boys on defense. This will be an offensive shootout.
Key Matchup: Tony Romo against the Giants secondary will be the primary matchup in this game. The Giants have been very suspect this year in the pass defense, 30th in the league. Romo threw for 307 and 3 scores last time these two teams met, so if the Giants can slow down Romo, they will be able to take control.
Mike’s Pick – Cowboys
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 5* GIANTS/COWBOYS UNDER 48
NFL Picks Week #8
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (Pick #4) Vegas Line: SF 49ers -7.5 Vegas Total: 49ers/Cardinals O/U 38
Mike’s Lowdown
(49ers Strengths) – Contrary to popular belief, the 49ers defense is not playing as well as they did last year. They only have 11 sacks this year, and they are giving up an average of 4.5 yards per carry to running backs. Their offense is not the same if they play from behind, but if Frank Gore runs like he did last week against Seattle, it won’t matter. Gore has been great lately, and he is still the key to the 49ers offense. Last time the 49ers played John Skelton, he threw 3 touchdowns in one of their 3 losses on the year. I bet this outcome will be very different.
(Cardinals Strengths) – The Cardinals offensive line is horrible. Thats all you can really say. They give up 5+ sacks every single week. John Skelton is lucky he is still playing, as Kolb was knocked out two weeks ago. This o-line play has led to an average of 2 turnovers a game for the Cardinals offense. The only bright spot is LaRod Stephens-Howling, who just rushed for over 100 yards against the number 3 rush defense, the Vikings. The Cardinals will need to play outstanding defense, and get the ball out of Skelton’s hands as quick as possible in order to move down the field.
Key Matchup: Larry Fitzgerald against the San Francisco secondary will be the most important matchup because he will be Skelton’s security blanket all day. Along with tight end Housler, Fitz will be getting stared down all day long by his quarterback. If the 49ers can shut down Fitz, the Cardinals will be pathetic on offense.
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Mike & Incarcerated Bob’s “Fantasy Sleepers” (Week 8)
For those keeping score…from last week, 3/5 of my sleepers scored over 12 points.
1) Rob Housler, Arizona Cardinals – Housler is a very interesting play this week. He has been consistent this year, and is developing into the tight end the Cardinals wanted. He has been a security blanket for Skelton, and with no offensive line, he will get a lot of checkdowns.
2) Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars – Many owners scrambled to pick up Rashad Jennings, but this game will not be one based on the run. The Packers will be leading early, and depending on who starts at quarterback, they will need to air it out. Shorts has been the big play receiver for the Jags this year, and I won’t be surprised if he finds the endzone again.
3) James Jones, Green Bay Packers – Jennings is out, Nelson might not play, so Cobb and Jones would be the top two receivers. Even if Nelson plays, Rodgers will spread the ball around with ease in this contest. Expect Jones to be a red zone target for Rodgers.
4) Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns – 3 scores in 3 weeks, but the only thing that worries me is his receptions. His highest reception total was 3. But what excites me is he is playing a terrible Chargers secondary, and his chemistry with Weeden is improving week to week. I see Gordon getting into the endzone for a 4th straight week.
5) Ryan Broyles, Detroit Lions – He had his coming out party last week against the Bears, and he will move up the depth chart due to Nate Burleson’s broken leg. I expect Broyles to be a new favorite target of Stafford, and he will take advantage of Johnson and Young taking the main pressure away.
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A game that would have featured two of the best linebackers in the game is without those two stars; Ray Lewis & Brian Cushing. Not to mention the other huge hits the Ravens have taken on defense, this will be a test for them.
(Ravens Strengths) – Even with Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata at 100%, the Ravens rush defense has been a shadow of its former self, as Jamaal Charles and the duo of DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones torched them for over 150 yards a piece. Without the leadership of Ray Lewis, and Ladarius Webb at corner who has been playing great football, it will be interesting to see where this defense stands. And what a test for them, facing Arian Foster and the Texans, who undoubtedly will be out for revenge after the embarrassment they were handed by the Packers last Sunday. The Ravens will have to rely on Joe Flacco and Ray Rice in this game, because the Texans defense is suspect now as well. They missed Brian Cushing last week, and this will leave a gaping hole in the middle, and Jonathan Joseph has been on a cold streak lately. If the Ravens want to win this game, the vertical passing attack will need to be of high priority, especially involving Torrey Smith. The Ravens have the tools on their offense to win this game, but the question is, will the defense show up inspired to win without their leader?
(Texans Strengths) – The media is blowing the loss to the Packers out of proportion, calling it the exposure of the Texans. Aaron Rodgers came out fast and didn’t slow down, and the Texans shot themselves in the foot 3 times, costing themselves 21 points instead of 9. They will be more disciplined this week, and facing a weak run defense, they will go back to what they do best with Arian Foster and Ben Tate. When the run game works for these guys, their play action is unstoppable, and with no Ladarius Webb to cover Andre Johnson, the field will open up for the tight ends. If the Texans take an early lead and go back to what they do best, they could cruise through the Ravens.
Key Injuries – I can’t stress enough how important Ray Lewis is to the Ravens, even more as a leader than a player. Webb might be the more talented player at this stage, as he has developed into a shutdown corner. Terrell Suggs may be back for this game, but his impact will not be huge. Haloti Ngata and Ed Reed are both playing through injuries. This defense has faced so much adversity this year, and this will be a wake up call for the Ravens.
Key Matchup: The key matchup in this game will be the Ravens defense against Arian Foster and the Texans rushing attack. The Ravens have struggled against high caliber runners such as Jamaal Charles and DeMarco Murray, but have yet to face a top 2 running back. Now here is their chance to prove that without Ray Lewis that they can hold the stereotypical defense of the Ravens true. If they cannot stop Arian Foster, and let him rip off 7-8 yards a carry, this offense will be nearly impossible to stop.
In a battle of the NFL’s two most surprising teams, one will walk away a contender, and the other will be dubbed “pretender”. The Cardinals travel to a hostile environment, to face Jared Allen and the Vikings stout defense, while also having the task of containing Adrian Peterson and MVP candidate Percy Harvin.
(Cardinals Strengths) – The Cardinals sitting at 4-2 atop the NFC West with the 49ers at 5-2 is not a mistake. They played some great defensive football over the first 4 weeks of the year, shutting down Michael Vick and Tom Brady. The weaknesses of this team have started to rear their ugly head in the last 2 weeks, in the loss to St. Louis and Buffalo. They Cardinals have little to no run game with the losses of Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, and they are going up against a Vikings defense that has not allowed more than 63 yards rushing to opposing running backs. The loss of Kevin Kolb may or may not be a positive for Arizona. Kolb is more safe, he takes more check downs and short passes, while Skelton will take deep shots to Fitzgerald. The downside to Skelton, is that he stares down receivers and stands in the pocket for too long, leading to sacks and turnovers. The Cardinals will need to win this game on defense, but injury has decimated this unit. They went from 10th against the rush to 20th after the loss to Buffalo, mostly due to the loss of Darnell Dockett, who will be tasked with stopping Adrian Peterson while hobbling with an injured hamstring. Patrick Peterson will need to take matters into his own hands, in the return game especially.
(Vikings Strengths) – The Vikings have won games because of the accuracy of sophomore quarterback Christian Ponder, and the great play of Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. Ponder has played great football this year, being more careful with his turnovers, and looking downfield. This is due to the improved offensive line led by Matt Kalil and John Sullivan. The Cardinals will be focused on stopping Percy Harvin, and Patrick Peterson will prove to be a tough test for Harvin. The Vikings have other weapons though, obviously Adrian Peterson, but the tight end Kyle Rudolph who leads the league in tight end touchdowns with 5. Jerome Simpson will return this week as well, who in his only game with the Vikings forced 60 yards of defensive pass interference and caught a game-clinching first down. The Vikings will run the ball early and often to test this defense, and it is unlikely that they will look back.
Key Matchup: Percy Harvin versus Patrick Peterson will be a very exciting matchup in this game. Harvin is a legitimate MVP candidate, as he is utilized in every aspect of the game, while Peterson is the best corner he has faced this season. If Peterson can slow down Harvin’s productivity, the Cardinals will be able to focus on slowing down Adrian Peterson, and forcing Christian Ponder to make plays downfield.
Mike’s Pick – Vikings
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 4* VIKINGS / CARDINALS OVER 40.5
When you think Jaguars and Raiders, there aren’t many interesting matchups to think about, but one is the battle of Bryan Anger and Shane Lechler, the punters of their respective teams. Rookie Anger leads the league with a 51.3 average, and Shane Lechler who is the best punter of the era who is sixth in the league right now. When the battle of the punters is the most exciting rivalry, you really feel for the fans of these two teams.
(Jaguars Strengths) – Blaine Gabbert has been awful lately. He has shown no improvement from last year to this year, because he is still a shell shock quarterback. He is afraid of getting hit. The good news it, he is facing a team who is playing their 4th and 5th string corners, and everyone on the Jaguars offensive line is finally healthy! Thats a plus, right? Not really, considering Justin Blackmon has been horrible, Laurent Robinson hasn’t been worth the money he was signed for, and Mercedes Lewis has been underperforming. The only bright spot in this offense is Maurice Jones-Drew, who can, and will carry this offense against a very suspect Oakland Raiders defense.
(Raiders Strengths) – The Raiders have the advantage in nearly every aspect of this game, except for secondary. When you are starting a couple of no-name receivers from the practice squad, you know you’re in trouble. They may not need to worry though, because Darren McFadden is going to run all over this defense. Carson Palmer has not been horrible either, and his receivers, especially Denarius Moore, have been great. The Raiders will win this game on offense, and will not need to worry about the impact of Jones-Drew.
Key Matchup: Darren McFadden against the Jaguars defense will be the most important matchup in this game. The Jaguars have no pass rush whatsoever, and are ranked 25th in the league against the run, allowing 130 yards a game. If the Jags want any chance to win this game, they will need to stop McFadden and get some pressure on Palmer.
Mike’s Pick – Raiders
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 6* OAKLAND RAIDERS -6
NFL Picks Week #7
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (Pick #4) Vegas Line: Bears -7 Vegas Total: Lions/Bears O/U47
Mike’s Lowdown
(Lions Strengths) – When will the real Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson show up for a full game? Honestly, Stafford was a shell of his former self for the first half against Philadelphia last week, but showed signs of his return in the second. Him and Megatron finally started hooking up for over 100 yards, and still no score. Jahvid Best has essentially been given a death sentence for football, his concussions may force him to retire early, so the run game rests on the shoulders of Mikel Leshoure. The Lions strength though, obviously is the pass game, and Stafford needs to step up. The Bears defense has been amazing, limiting teams to under 59 yards rushing, and held Aaron Rodgers to one passing score. If Stafford doesn’t snap this funk he has been in, he will struggle all night.
(Bears Strengths) – The Bears defense has been nothing short of spectacular, scoring 4 touchdowns in 2 games. They have shut down the run and the pass, most of the time without Brian Urlacher. The Bears will be able to take shots downfield with the weak Lions secondary that they are facing, but the key will be stopping Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh. If the Bears offensive line can’t stop these two, Cutler will be forced into some bad decisions. Forte and Bush could also have a run game, facing a Lions rush defense that is ranked 6th in the league. The game will be on Cutler’s shoulders, and if he gets time to throw, expect him to rack up the yards with ease.
Key Matchup: Bears offensive line against the Lions defensive line will be the most important matchup, because Jay Cutler is not the best quarterback to rely on making quick decisions when flushed out of the pocket. Cutler is at his best when he gets time to sit in the pocket and look downfield, especially with new weapons Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery at his disposal. If the Lions can disrupt Cutler enough, they will be able to take advantage of the turnovers he will more than likely give them.
Mike’s Pick – Bears
INCARCERATED BOB’S PICK – 10* DETROIT LIONS +7
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Mike & Incarcerated Bob’s “Fantasy Sleepers” (Week #7)
For those keeping score…from last week, 3/5 of my sleepers scored over 12 points.
1) Montario Hardesty, Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson is unlikely to see much action against the Colts this week due to a rib injury, so Hardesty will likely see around 20 carries. The Colts run defense is nothing to be desired, and Hardesty will be used in goal line situations.
2) Philip Tanner, Dallas Cowboys – I understand Felix Jones is the big pickup this week due to DeMarco Murray’s injury, but Felix Jones is not a red zone back, and not a between the tackles rusher. If the Cowboys get down to the red zone, I expect Tanner to get goal line duties. I could even see Jones and Tanner splitting carries against a weak Panthers defense.
3) Kevin Walter, Houston Texans – With Ladarius Webb gone for the year, and Jimmy Smith covering Andre Johnson, Walter gets the honor of being covered by Cary Williams, who has been terrible this year. He has allowed 427 yards off of 33 receptions, and 3 touchdowns. Walter will be looked at often in this game.
4) Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans – Since Hasselbeck has taken over, Cook has been the 6th best fantasy tight end. They are facing a Bills defense that on average, allows 100 yards to tight ends. Cook will get a lot of looks in the red zone in this game with Chris Johnson still a question mark.
5) Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – If you have been watching the NFL at all this year, you know the Saints defense is horrible. Josh Freeman and Mike Williams have been in sync the last two weeks, combining for 220 yards and a touchdown. Against a terrible Saints secondary, he will reap the benefits.
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Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (Pick #1)
Vegas Line: JETS -3.5
Vegas Total: JETS/COLTS O/U44
Mike’s Lowdown
The come from behind emotional win against the Packers last week will carry over into this game, giving the Colts an emotional edge against a team that is regressing rapidly.
(Colts Strengths) – The loss of Chuck Pagano to leukemia resulted in an emotional rally behind Andrew Luck in the second half against the Green Bay Packers, and that is a huge strength coming into this game. Reggie Wayne had his best day as a pro, coming up clutch with 212 yards and a score. The Colts are facing a weak Jets defense that has lost All-Pro Revis, and has a lackluster pass rush. Luck will have trouble facing Cromartie who will be on Wayne, so he will have to look elsewhere. The key to this game for the Colts is establishing the run game with rookie Vick Ballard against a weak Jets rush defense.
(Jets Strengths) – Believe it or not, the Jets showed some fight against the Texans in a game they were supposed to be tossed around like a high school JV team. Sanchez and his group of scrappy receivers didn’t look completely helpless, but Joe McKnight and Antonio Cromartie were the MVPs of that game, with a kickoff return touchdown and an interception respectively. The Jets are not facing a tough defense, so Shonn Greene could be more utilized than he was last week, he has been pedestrian so far at best. The key to this game for the Jets is the ability to keep a hot streak going on offense. Rex Ryan and Sparano have the uncanny ability to pull players when they get into a rhythm. Be it Tebow or Sanchez, they offense has to stick with a gameplan.
Key Injuries – The injury to Darrelle Revis can’t be stressed enough, but I think the biggest injury in this game will be one to Santonio Holmes. The Jets might have Dustin Keller back this week, but the fact that they have the most pedestrian wide receiver corps in the NFL still holds back this team. Even against a weaker secondary like Indianapolis, the Jets will struggle.
Key Matchup: How the Jets use Tim Tebow will be the key matchup of this game. He almost completed a 60 yard bomb against the Texans, and if the receiver has been somewhat talented he would have caught it. Tebow needs to be utilized in this game, or his talents are being put to waste.
Mike’s Pick – Colts
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 3* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4 (BOUGHT HOOK)
NFL Picks Week #6
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles Vegas Line: Eagles -3.5 Vegas Total: Eagles/Lions O/U47.5
Mike’s Lowdown
Is it just me, or does it feel like the Eagles have a losing record? They are one of the most inconsistent teams in the league, and all of their big money free agents are underperforming. Same could be said about the Detroit Lions and underperforming.
(Lions Strengths) – The Lions still have Calvin Johnson, and they still have Matthew Stafford. Unfortunately for them, they don’t have much after that. The duo that combined for over 1500 yards are 16 touchdowns has combined for 1 score in 4 weeks. Teams are figuring them out, especially after week 4 against the Vikings; Johnson was rocked in the endzone, dropping a potential touchdown, and he was shut down. The positives, reside in the emergence of Mikel Leshoure, who ran all over the weak Tennessee Titans, and received all of the carries versus the Vikings. The defense still struggles to defend the big play, but that was never the strength of this team, Stafford and Megatron need to get back on the same page.
(Eagles Strengths) – This team is one of the most talented in the NFL across the board, on paper. It has been 21 games since they made the splash in free agency by grabbing Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Cullen Jenkins, Jason Babin and much more, and it still hasn’t translated to a dominant team. Michael Vick gives the ball away like candy on Halloween, and he leads the NFL in fumbles and it isn’t even close. Andy Reid’s boneheaded play calling is bringing this team down, and most of that relates to limiting McCoy’s carries. If Reid gives McCoy the ball more frequently, and Vick limits mistakes, the Eagles will be able to control the game.
Key Matchup: The matchup to watch in this game will be the Eagles secondary against Calvin Johnson. If Megatron gets going like he can, the rest of the Lions offense will follow, but if Megatron becomes one big decoy, Stafford will struggle.
Mike’s Pick – Eagles
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 3* DETROIT LIONS +4 (BOUGHT HOOK)
NFL Picks Week #6
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers (Pick #3) Vegas Line: Niners -7 Vegas Total: Niners/Giants O/U46
Mike’s Lowdown
(Giants Strengths) – The word has been that Hakeem Nicks is going to return, and that would be great for the G-Men in this game. Their offense has been great since the return of Bradshaw, rushing for 200 yards last week, but Nicks is the last cog in the machine. If he plays, he will take the pressure off of Cruz. The 49ers defense is in a class of it’s own, no doubt, but this is the first talented team they are playing since the Vikings in Week 3. Eli Manning is having a great year, and he will test the struggling 49ers safeties. Bradshaw will be slowed down and won’t be much of a factor, putting the game once again on Eli’s shoulders. The defense on the other hand has been average at best, allowing Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson to combine for 400 total yards of offense and an 17-7 lead in the 1st half. Alex Smith has been playing lights out under Jim Harbaugh’s tutelage, so don’t expect him to struggle like Weeden did down the stretch.
(49ers Strengths) – This team has been nearly unstoppable since they lost to the Vikings, and it hasn’t been close. They have scored 79 points and allowed 3 in two games, then again that was against the weak Bills and Jets, but impressive numbers nonetheless. Jim Harbaugh has taken Alex Smith under his wing and turned him into the best game managing quarterback in the NFL. The receiving corps has been outstanding, Manningham and Crabtree especially. The defense does not need explanation, because besides the hiccup in Week 3 against Minnesota, they have been nearly perfect. They have allowed 3 points in 2 games, but will face a tougher test this week. They will win this game on offense, and the injury ridden Giants defense will find it hard to stop this high powered rushing attack, and the talented receivers that Harbaugh will utilize.
Key Matchup: The Giants defense versus Frank Gore & the Niners rushing attack is the key matchup in this contest. Harbaugh has been impressive in his play calling, using Kaepernick, Gore, Hunter, and even Kyle Williams to run all over the Jets and the Bills. The Giants are injury ridden, Rocky Bernard, Chase Blackburn, Corey Webster and Kenny Phillips all missed practice on Wednesday. Their replacements against the Browns really struggled against Trent Richardson, so imagine this 3 headed monster coming at them, and I didn’t even mention Brandon Jacobs.
Mike’s Pick – 49ers
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 5* NY GIANTS / 49ERS OVER 46
NFL Picks Week #6
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers Vegas Line: Broncos -PK Vegas Total: Chargers/Broncos O/U47
Mike’s Lowdown
(Broncos Strengths) – Wow, Peyton Manning has to be pissed with his receivers. Demaryius Thomas fumbled in the red zone after a huge completion, and Willis McGahee fumbled on 4th and 1 during a drive they needed to keep the game competitive, and dropped a wide open screen pass on 4th and 1 later. The Broncos have been shooting themselves in the foot, not to mention against tough teams. This cannot happen in a divisional matchup against San Diego, especially one that is after revenge following last weeks collapse against New Orleans. The San Diego pass rush has been solid, so Willis McGahee needs to establish the run early, and often to get the pressure off of Manning. If Manning’s receivers can hold on to the ball, the Broncos will be able to control this game.
(Chargers Strengths) – Finally Ryan Mathews breaks out, and had a good night against a weak Saints defense. The Chargers need Mathews to have a big day in order for things to open up for Rivers. This shouldn’t be too much to ask, considering the Broncos couldn’t contain Stevan Ridley or Brandon Bolden. The Broncos secondary hasn’t been spectacular, so Rivers will look to exploit the weaknesses, especially Antoine Cason and Atari Bigby. The one thing that will make things tough for the Chargers offense is the pass rush of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. The Chargers offensive line needs to keep Rivers from getting rattled if they want to keep up in this potential shootout.
Key Matchup: Ryan Mathews against the Broncos defense will be the matchup to watch in this primetime affair. Rivers doesn’t have the greatest offensive line in the league, so he needs a running game established. Mathews finally broke out last week against the Saints, and against a Broncos defense that has been under performing, he should be perfectly capable.
Mike’s Pick – Broncos
INCARCERATED BOB’S PICK – EMAIL FOR INFO ON THIS 10* #IBN GAME OF THE YEAR PLAY!!!
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Mike & Incarcerated Bob’s “Fantasy Sleepers” (Week #6)
For those keeping score…from last week, 3/5 of my sleepers scored over 12 points.
1) Andre Roberts, Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are facing the 30th ranked Buffalo Bills defense, and have been demolished through the air lately. The Bills will be so focused on stopping Fitzgerald, that Roberts will reap the benefits. Expect a red zone touchdown from Roberts.
2) Vick Ballard, Indianapolis Colts – With Donald Brown sitting the next few weeks out, the rookie Ballard will receive the bulk of the load against the weak Jets. The Colts love to establish the run, and Ballard is a hard runner.
3) Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns – Believe me, I’m surprised to have a Brown on here as well, but the matchup is extremely favorable. The Bengals defense has been under performing recently, and the Browns have been losing all of their wide receivers to injury, leaving Little (who can’t catch), Cribbs (who just had a concussion), and Gordon. Not to mention, Gordon broke out last week for a 60 yard touchdown.
4) Jeremy Kerley, New York Jets – Kerley saw a fair amount of targets against the Texans, and caught a few long passes. Being the only talented receiver besides Stephen Hill, Kerley could get a ton of looks against a week Indianapolis secondary.
5) Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings – He is one of the most accurate passers in the league, and has two of the most talented offensive weapons at his disposal. Whats not to like? The Washington Redskins have a terrible defense and simply can’t matchup with Harvin, Simpson, and Rudolph. Ponder will spread the ball around and rack up the yards.
**All NFL Lines are from 5Dimes (5Dimes.com)**
**My Strength Of Bets Are Rated From 1-10 Stars**
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INCARCERATED BOB’S PICK – HOUSTON TEXANS / NY JETS OVER 40 (BOUGHT HOOK)
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Mike & Incarcerated Bob’s “Fantasy Sleepers” (Week #5)
For those keeping score…from last week, 3/5 of my sleepers scored over 12 points.
1) Alex Smith, SF 49ers - Coming off a quiet game vs Jets where the Niners mostly ran the ball, expect a big performance at home against a suspect Bills secondary.. I look for some deep balls and maybe a Randy Moss big play. START EM!
2) Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers – All he does is catch TD’s and this week against the Eagles i expect Big Ben to look for Heathhhhhhh in the red zone, get him in the lineup he will catch a TD and put up some solid #’s. START EM!
3) Jeremy Kerley, NY Jets - He is pretty much the last man standing on the Jets offense (WR Position) so by default he will catch some balls and Kerley has that big play ability in open space. Jets may have trouble scoring against Texans but if they do expect JK to be involved. START EM!
**All NFL Lines are from 5Dimes (5Dimes.com)**
**My Strength Of Bets Are Rated From 1-10 Stars**
Follow All Incarcerated Bob’s **Breaking Sports News**
