Update: The A’s took a Vanderbilt pitcher at No. 18 and Ross went to the Padres at 25, before the Giants had their chance at 29. … So much for my theory.

I will not profess to be a Major League Baseball Draft expert. If you want real analysis, call on someone much more qualified — like Jonathan Mayo or John Sickels or Baseball America‘s Jim Callis and John Manuel. (My first name doesn’t even start with a J, so how could I possibly be an expert?)

But the Draft is nearing — tune in Monday evening for the first round — and none of these Kiperian guys are really giving you an A’s-only angle on things, am I right? They have too much on their plate to go into detail for all 30 clubs.

Getty.

Well, you’ve got me. And while I am no expert, if you’ll settle for a conspiracy theorist, then you’re in the right place. I have a theory (that involves a conspiracy) and it has to do with with who the A’s (or, potentially, Giants) will pick in round numero uno. Here goes…

In April and May I worked on a feature of Oakland-area high school pitcher Joe Ross for my employer, MiLB.com. Ross is a pleasant young man with a college commitment to UCLA but has the obvious dream of playing pro ball, and playing it soon. While you can read the story for more of the background, I’ll mention here that Ross is unlike many prep prospects. He can walk away from first- or second-round money because a) he is very bright and b) he and his family are set financially. And that’s not even because Ross’ older brother — you know Tyson, right? — is already a Major Leaguer.

So to the conspiracy: In the course of reporting this story, multiple  A’s front office members declined to speak with me, which is unusual — even for me. So one of the conclusions I draw is that the club hopes to pick Tyson’s little brother at No. 18 overall. The family is close with multiple people (I count at least one scout and at least three Major League coaches).

Tyson, for one, would love this scenario. Read this selection (which did not appear in my MiLB.com piece):

Many before Ross have transitioned directly from within or just outside the city limits of Oakland to the farm towns of the Minor Leagues, as preps have been ripe for the picking since the inaugural 1965 Draft. Count Hall of Famers Rickey Henderson and Dennis Eckersley and modern stars Jermaine Dye, Jimmy Rollins and Dontrelle Willis amongst those hailing from the East Bay’s epicenter. There is also Ross’ older brother. Tyson was projected as an early-rounder – some estimated the third – after a senior season in 2005 at [Bishop] O’Dowd, where he finished with a 12-1 record and 0.71 ERA.

Because the Ross family had hosted many of the 15-to-20 scouts who showed up at Tyson’s games (though they only came initially to see his Foothill High counterpart and now Baltimore Oriole Brad Bergeson) everyone was sure he’d be grabbed and grabbed early. Tyson even received a phone call at about 6 a.m. the morning of the Draft from a team that had multiple first-round picks. The voice on the other end asked, “If we pick you, would you sign?”

There wasn’t a call back. Tyson ended up playing three seasons for the Golden Bears. The oldest of three all born in Berkeley – soccer-playing sister Frankie was an academic All-American at Portland State – he became Cal’s undisputed ace. “The Draft was a crap-shoot really, out of high school,” says Tyson, who in 2008 was the A’s second-rounder. “I didn’t really know a whole lot about it. I thought I was going to get picked at some point.

“It would have been nice to have an older role model to look up to. It’s incredible that [Joe] has so many sources he can reach out to [about] signing right out of high school.”

It would be a storybook ending if Tyson and Joe end up pitching one day (2015?) in the same big league rotation. Here’s why it won’t happen: According to Sickels, one of the aforementioned experts, the A’s are looking for a college bat in the first round. This makes more sense, given that the organization already has a rotation to build around but is lacking any real All-Star position player.

So — and unfortunately this is where my conspiracy ends — the younger Ross is more likely to go to the Giants at pick No. 29. Sickels has said Ross would be a top 15-pick in a normal Draft (this year’s pool of elite players is especially deep), and most mocks don’t have Ross getting past the first 30 picks. We’ll see where he ends up this coming week, but my guess is that he’ll be sticking in the Bay Area.

Other Oakland-only pre-Draft thoughts:

• Do any of you baseball fans actually tune into the Draft? Commish Selig has tried to increase its exposure with the primetime-TV slot, but won’t it always be difficult to really care when the teens and 20-somethings being plucked from nowhere won’t be getting somewhere for, at minimum, two to three years? What’s so interesting about the NFL’s selection process, is most first-round picks are expected to play (if not start) on Day 1. Selig and MLB will never be able to match that immediacy factor.
• Even if you don’t tune in — I don’t either — it’s not difficult to gather that the A’s haven’t had a load of success the last five years picking position players. While it’s too early to weigh in on their 2009 and 2010 hauls, this evidence below isn’t promising:

2006: Third-rounder Matt Sulentic and fifth-rounder Jermaine Mitchell are still in Double-A and don’t appear to be Major League regulars.

2007: Comp. picks Sean Doolittle (injuries) and Corey Brown (traded in Josh Willingham deal) as well as second-rounders Greg Desme (turned to the cloth) and Josh Horton (bench player-in training) don’t appear to be Major Regulars.

2008: First-rounder Jemile Weeks is likely a futre a starting second baseman, but will he be an All-Star caliber player? Second-rounder Petey Paramore can catch behind home plate but has yet to hit in the Minors.

Reach the writer at apentis@gmail.com, or visit his website, andrewpentis.wordpress.com. Also, visit his buddy’s great Bay Area sports site, eastBaymode.com.