There are two huge stories in the baseball world this Monday. The Diamondbacks are calling up the next great strikeout hurler while the Red Sox shipped out of town one of the faces of their franchise.
BAUER TO GET CALL
Trevor Bauer will make his big league debut in a few days for the Diamondbacks. In fact, he’ll start this Thursday against the Braves due to the injury to Joe Saunders (strained shoulder). Here are the facts with Bauer.
He is 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA in 16 starts at Double and Triple A.
He leads all minor league hurlers with 116 strikeouts.
Does this mean he will have success immediately?
“Is he ready? How do you know?” manager Kirk Gibson said. “There are certain things he does great. We all know he has great stuff. His last two starts, he has had 100 pitches in five innings.”
That last point is one I’d like to hit on again (as I did a few weeks ago). The stuff is outstanding, no one doubts that, but he’s nowhere near efficient with his pitches now, and just like Gibson said, there have been times where he has failed to go deep into games because of a rapidly increasing pitch count (it should also be noted that the club has tried to keep his pitch count under 100 in each game, and there is some thought as well that the club might limit his overall innings this seasonas well). In eight starts at Double-A Bauer walked 4.84 batters per nine innings, and in seven starts at Triple-A that number was 4.29. If he’s walking four and a half batters per nine in the big leagues, success may be more difficult to attain.
Before we go too nuts here, one little bit of addedc perspective. The D’backs have a full rotation when Saunders is healthy. Given that he’s likely to be back before the All-Star break, what will the team do at that point? Will they run with six starters? Highly unlikely. Will the demote Saunders to the bullpen? It’s certainly possible given that Bauer has better stuff and an appreciably higher upside, but don’t overlook a few salient facts. (1) Saunders has made 174 big league appearance and they have all been starts. (2) Saunders is no great shakes, but over his last 46 starts he has a 3.62 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, not set the world on fire numbers but also not awful. (3) There is always a chance that the club could demote Bauer for some more seasoning. Look, I know you don’t want to hear that after you’ve been sitting on Bauer for months, but it’s still possible, especially if he has a couple of rough outings.
I think Bauer should be added in pretty much every format out there on the off chance that he hits the ground running and dominates like he has been in the minors. At the same time, I’m not certain that he will be able to live up to expectations (see Matt Moore this year with the Rays).
YOUKILIS DEALT TO WHITE SOX
The Kevin Youkilis era in Boston is over. Here’s the deal that went down on Sunday.
Obviously the Red Sox just felt it was time to move on from Youkilis with Middlebrooks proving his worth on the field and Youkilis looking pretty lost (he’s hit .163 since June 2nd). Stewart and Lillibridge are nothing more than AL only options, that didn’t change with the trade, but what about Youkilis? You cam here for my thoughts, so you’re going to get them.
The deal from Boston to Chicago is not a magic elixir that will lead to success. Do I think the move will have a beneficial impact on Youkilis’ psyche? I absolutely think that is possible. At the same time I can’t quantify that. Who’s to say that he won’t put more pressure on himself to prove that the Red Sox made a mistake or to prove to the White Sox that he is still an elite level player (I hate to invoke his name here, sorry all, but remember what Adam Dunn did last season in his first year in Chicago)? There’s no way anyone can know (I’ve already seen so many people banking on Youkilis being an All-Star caliber player tomorrow simply because of the trade, and that’s sheer folly). I’m also not convinced that Youkilis is totally healthy anyway, and that isn’t going to change just cause his jersey will have a different color on it.
This brings up the main point of contention with Youkilis. Is he merely in a slump? Is he hurt? Has he someone lost his skills overnight?
Youkilis has always known how to work the strike zone. In addition to being a .287 career hitter, his OBP sits at an impressive .388 as he is no stranger to the walk. There shouldn’t be a reason that at 33 years of age he’s lost his strike zone judgment. For his career Youkilis owns a 12.4 percent walk rate. That number has been at least 13 percent each of the past three years as well. This season, it’s down at 8.5 percent, the worst mark he’s ever had. He’s compounded that oddity by also striking out more frequently than ever before with a 23.6 percent K-rate (career 18.3 percent). As a result his 0.36 BB/K mark is about 50 percent of his normal (0.68). I have to think that all of this improves as it’s totally out of line with his career.
I am concerned by the massive ground ball increase he’s show this year. A lifetime 36 percent ground ball fella, that mark has shot up to 50 percent this year, an unheard of level for a player who had never been to even 42 percent in any of his seasons. I’d have to think this is a sample size issue with Youkilis, but it is also possible that he’s been dragging the bat through the strike zone a bit either because of age or injury, and that has contributed to the trend. I kind of discount that though given that his line drive rate is less than a percentage point off his normal pace while his HR/F ratios is actually a point above his normal rate.
So let’s talk brass tacks here.
Youkilis, in this correspondents opinion, still has the talent to be a high level producer at the big league level. There are certainly some warning signs and concerns with how has performed in his 165 plate appearances this year so it’s not all sugarplums and lollipops. There’s also the fact that, after playing in an average of 143 games a season from 2007-2009, that he appeared in an average of just 111 games the past two years and just 42 of the 72 games the Red Sox have played this season. That’s obviously a trend that should, at bare minimum, raise some eyebrows. Still, I’m a believer. I was recently called out on Twitter for my continued support of Youkilis but the facts as I see them lead me to that conclusion. To summarize, I don’t think the move to Chicago will all of a sudden transform Youkilis into his All-Star self, but I’m also not willing to let him waste away on the waiver-wire because I truly believe that he has within him the talent to be a top-10 fantasy third baseman the rest of the way, even if the risk of him doing is pretty darn high.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
44. Jason Vargas (SEA)–6/26 vs. OAK (Blackley), 7/1 vs. BOS (Matsuzaka)
45. Anthony Bass (SD)–6/26 @ HOU (Lyles), 7/1 @ COL (Outman)
46. Christian Friedrich (COL)–6/26 vs. WAS (Gonzalez), 6/30 vs. SD (Volquez)
47. Jeff Francis (COL)–6/25 vs. WAS (Strasburg), 6/29 vs. SD (Marquis)
48. Liam Hendriks (MIN)–6/30 vs. CWS (Floyd), 7/1 vs. KC (Chen)
49. Tommy Hunter (BAL)–6/26 vs. LAA (Wilson), 7/1 vs. CLE (Masterson)
50. Josh Outman (COL)–6/27 vs. WAS (Zimmermann), 7/1 vs. SD (Bass)
51. Erasmo Ramirez (SEA)–6/25 vs. OAK (Milone), 6/30 vs. BOS (Doubront)
*All matchups as of June 22, 2012 and are subject to change due to injuries, postponements and managerial decisions.
Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at matthewbeck@rotoinfo.com. Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information.
Statistical Nuances from the Nomad is an extension of our weekly Rotoinfo.com Fantasy Nomad Show, (which you can download on iTunes or listen to on the RotoInfo.com homepage using the Blog Talk Radio widget near the bottom), where I highlight some stats that I feel help paint a better picture of a player’s performance and/or projected performance. As the title suggests, this week’s focus turns to Dillon Gee
Photo from CBSSports
When your teammates are a former CY Young winner, who pitched your team’s first ever no-hitter in team history and this season’s front runner for the CY Young Award, it is easy to get lost in the mix. While Johan Santana and R.A. Dickey get most all the recent headlines, Mets’ starting pitcher Dillon Gee has quietly pitched his way into a solid Fantasy option in all formats.
Years
W
L
G
GS
IP
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
2010
2
2
5
5
33
2.18
1.21
4.64
4.09
2011
13
6
30
27
160.2
4.43
1.38
6.39
3.98
2012
5
5
14
14
95
4.27
1.24
8.24
2.48
 In only his second season, Gee is already proving to be a workhorse type pitcher that can go deep into games as he has 10 quality starts, (tied for 10th in the NL for total number of Quality Starts), and has a quality start in his last seven straight starts.
Gee’s ERA is over 4.00 this season, but wtih a 3.34 xFIP, a 3.23 SIERRA, and a GB/FB rate of almost 2.0 it suggests that with some help from his team Gee could finish the season with an ERA under 4.00 and possibly a win total equal to, or higher than he achieved in almost a full season last year.
The spike in K/9 is not unexpected as Gee averaged 7.9 K/9 in five seasons in the minors, including a 9.2 K/9 in 161.1 IP (28 GS) at Triple-A in 2010 before getting a late season call up to the big league club.
As of Saturday June 23rd Gee had a K/9 average that ranked in the top 10 amongst National League Pitchers who have pitched 90 plus innings this season, ahead of such players as Madison Bumgarner and Jordan Zimmerman.
The National League HR/FB average is usually around 10%, so hopefully Gee’s16.1% HR/FB will show some regression closer to the mean as the season goes on, or at least to the 11.1% HR/FB rate he finished with in 2011
Dillon Gee just turned 26 years old at the end of April, and as his stats suggest, Gee is just now tapping into his potential, thus more good, to great starts appear to be on the horizon for a player that is available in almost 97% of ESPN and 82% of Yahoo leagues.
Pitchers are the bane of the fantasy leaguers existence. Just when a guy seems like he’s figured it all out he goes out and lays a series of stinkers (see Zambrano below). There are also hurlers who are humming along but they seem to hit an injury wall which raises concerns (Kershaw). There is also the fact that at any point any single pitch could spell doom for a hurler (Paulino, Worley). We’re also left to deal with the residual memory that is often lingering in our minds as we remember an ace-like arm, even when the results are far from that (Matsuzaka). There are often unfair expectations placed upon young arms so even when they pitch well they are looked at as disappointing (Moore). Finally, there are always a handful of guys that vault themselves from relative obscurity into the realm of becoming a household name (McDonald). All of these situations will be discussed in this piece because, frankly, I’m a really nice guy who wants to inform my readers. I’m such a wonderful human being.
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in his foot, it’s like everyone lose their minds with Kershaw (you should have seen some of the trade questions that were floated my way the past couple of weeks from people). Admittedly Kershaw’s on the field performance wasn’t quite up to par – he allowed 15 runs over four starts – but let’s not lose our perspective here. After seven innings or one run ball against the Athletics Thursday Kershaw lowered his ERA to 2.73 and his WHIP to 1.01. His career marks are 2.86 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. His K/9 rate is down at 8.36, the mark is 9.23 for his career, but he’s also kept his walk rate down at 2.20 per nine leading to a 3.80 K/BB ratio that is a batter better than his career rate and it would be only the second time in five years that the mark was over 2.65. It’s just not fair to compare Kershaw to what he did last year. He’s been terrific, and will continue to be so, foot issues and all.
In 2010 Dice-K went 9-6 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.37 WHIP as he was limited to 25 games due to injury.
In 2011 he tossed just eight games before Tommy John surgery was needed. He posted a 5.30 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 1.13 K/BB ratio in eight games.
In three starts this year he is 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA.
So why is it that I still get nearly daily questions about him?
My guesses.
(1) He pitches for the Red Sox.
(2) People remember his 33 victories in his first two seasons.
(3) People can’t let go of the past. Consider this. Over his last 36 outings Dice-K is 12-11. He has a 4.91 ERA. His WHIP is 1.37. His K/9 mark is 7.55. His K/BB ratio is 1.71. The strikeouts aren’t bad, bu that is about as boring an effort as you’re going to find and it should relegate him to AL-only leagues.
James McDonald, Pirates
Turns out that you can teach an old dog new tricks. The 27 year old McDonald had sporadic success over his first four big league seasons, but everyone knew there was an extremely talented arm lurking in the Long Beach born righty. Consider that arm on full display. McDonald tossed his first career complete game Thursday against the Twins along six hits, no walks and just one run to lower his ratios to levels one never thought would be associated with McDonald’s name – 2.19 ERA, 0.95 WHIP – thanks to seven of nine outings in which he has allowed one or zero earned runs. McD has also done a rather impressive job throwing strikes as he’s walked two or fewer batters in 10-straight outings. Obviously there is regression coming, but the consistency that he has shown to this point of the season points to the landing being a soft one.
Matt Moore, Rays
Fourteen starts into the 2012 season many would say Moore has been a disappointment. He’s 4-5, his ERA is 4.13 and that WHIP is 1.38, so it’s understandable how people might be frustrated. Still, the power lefty has 85 Ks in 80 innings bringing his brand of heat and hammer curves to batters. He’s also been pretty darn consistent of last allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts as his ERA has come down from 5.20 to 4.13. He needs to cut the walks, 40 in 80.2 innings isn’t acceptable, but he’s rounding into form quite nicely.
Felipe Paulino, Royals
So much for a breakout fantasy campaign.
It was announced, totally out of nowhere might I add, that Paulino hurt his arm during his minor league rehab outing on Wednesday and that the injury is to his UCL. That means Tommy John surgery is probable ending what was shaping up to be a great 2012 season as Paulino had a 1.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 39 Ks over 37.2 innings. If he does undergo TJ surgery he’ll likely miss not only the rest of the 2012 season but most if not all of the first half of next season.
Vance Worley, Phillies
Pitching with a loose bone chip in his elbow, Worley has been quite effective in four June starts since returning from some time on the shelf. Worley has hurled 24 innings this month, and though his K-rate is way down (16 in 24 innings), he’s allowed only one home runs and six earned runs leading to a 2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP (slightly better than his season long 2.78 and 1.25 marks). There’s obviously concern about his arm, that bone chip could move and cause problems on any pitch he throws, but for now he continues to operate as a pretty impressive right handed arm that may not be getting the credit he deserves.
Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
You would have to say that Big Z’s first 14 starts in a Marlins uniform have gone well, even though things have take a turn for the ugly, and I’m talking like someone has been beating with the ugly stick about the head for weeks, over his last three starts (0-2, 14 earned runs in 9.1 innings leading to a 13.50 ERA and 2.79 WHIP). How can I call his effort to date a positive one? (1) He’s avoided any blow ups. Gatorade coolers rejoice. (2) He’s taken the ball every five games. (3) His WHIP is 1.30, a mark that would be a 4-year low. (4) Even with nosedive-tastic efforts the last two weeks, his 4.01 ERA is still more than three quarters of a run better than the 4.82 mark he posted last season. He hasn’t been great, but as an NL-only option he’s been passable.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
When the weather gets warm some players really turn up the heat. That is definitely the case for second basemen Aaron Hill, who has now connected for home runs in three straight games and four out of the last six. Some may have forgotten, but Aaron Hill hit a total of 62 home runs in 2009 and 2010 when he was still a member of the Toronto Blue Jays, but hit a rough patch in 2011 which caused him to go unnoticed in most of standard mixed leagues this year.
Hill, who was traded to Arizona before the trade deadline in 2011, is adjusting nicely to his new home, hitting a whopping .368 at Chase Field with seven home runs and 20 RBIs. While his road splits are a bit suspect (.210 BA 3 HR/11 RBI/22K), there is no way his batting average stays that low for the remainder of the season. To prove that point if you research his last road trip in Texas and Los Angeles, Hill compiled three multi-hit games including a game in which he hit a three-run home run.
Since returning from the Diamondbacks last road trip Hill has been on fire, hitting for the cycle on Monday night and compiling eight hits over his last three games. As the heat continues to rise across the United States, there won’t be a ballpark that can contain Hill’s ability to hit the long ball.
When looking at the Diamondbacks upcoming schedule, they are at home against the Cubs for three games and then off to Atlanta for three games and Milwaukee for three games before heading home to start a seven-game home stand to end the first half of the season. All of these upcoming series are favorable matchups for Hill, so expect him to continue his hot streak up until the All-Star break the second week of July.
If Hill is already owned or he doesn’t fit the needs of your team, below are a few other pitchers to target on the waiver-wire:
Brandon Moss, 1B, OF (OAK)–Moss has been on fire since joining the Athletics on June 6 hitting seven home runs and driving in 12 RBIs in that span while sporting a .279 batting avearge. The one down fall to Moss is that he strikeouts a lot, which could hurt you in points league so in standard leagues he has more value. He has just one RBI since June 15, but with regular playing time he should be able to swing his way into everyday lineups in AL-Only and deep mixed leagues making him a solid pickup in those formats.
Cody Ross, OF (BOS)–Ross returned from the disabled list on Tuesday and immediately contributed to the Red Sox offense. He hit a home run in his first game back and flowed hit up with a three-RBI performance on Wednesday night against the Marlins. While he is more of a hitter that will only get you one hit a night, he usually finds a way to make the best out of it. Ross will continue to get regular playing time moving forward as long as he can stay healthy, and if he does expect he so be a solid asset to fantasy lineups.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP (BOS)–Despite taking losses in each of his first two starts this season Matsuzaka is a pitcher that should be targeted in AL-Only and deep mixed leagues. He has given up just seven hits and four walks total in his first two starts, which is below average for him, while averaging a strikeout per inning so far. The downside is that those seven hits turned into seven runs, but that luck will likely change as he continues to rack up innings over the rest of the season. While I don’t think he will ever become the pitcher he was thought to be when the Red Sox signed him, I think he is definitely serviceable in fantasy leagues.
Joaquin Benoit, RP (DET)–With the recent injury to Jose Valverde, which looks to be somewhat serious, Benoit will now step in and be the team’s primary closer until he is ready to return to action. Benoit has had little experience in the role so far in his career, but he has the weapons to be successful. Especially if you are a Valverde owner it would be a good idea to target Benoit on the waiver-wire for security. Valverde is expected to start throwing again on Sunday, but if it doesn’t go well Benoit could have an extended stay in the ninth inning role.
Prospect Watch
Anthony Rizzo, 1B (CHC)–Rizzo has been on an absolute tear all season long in Triple-A and the Cubs will not be able to hold him back much longer without promoting him to the big leagues. The Cubs have already started playing Bryan LaHair in the outfield, which can only mean the time for Rizzo will be soon. He has been hyped on fantasy site for the last few months so he may have already been stashed, but if he is still available in your league be sure to take a long look at adding him because his time will be soon.
Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at matthewbeck@rotoinfo.com. Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information.
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