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Fantasy Baseball 2011: The Stolen Base.

Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011

In recent years we have seen a decline in the amount of homers hit. Most people attribute the decline in homers to the crackdown on performance enhancing drugs (PED’s), bur regardless of the reason the simple fact is that less homers are being hit. Here is the data for the 21st century.

2000: 5693
2001: 5458
2002: 5059
2003: 5207
2004: 5451
2005: 5017
2006: 5386
2007: 4957
2008: 4878
2009: 5042
2010: 4613

So you might be asking yourself what the heck does this information have to do with the title of this piece? While homers have gone down in recent years – especially last season, stolen base totals haven’t regressed at all, in fact, they are going along at a tremendous clip. Here is the stolen base data for the past 11 years.

2000: 2923
2001: 3103
2002: 2750
2003: 2573
2004: 2589
2005: 2566
2006: 2767
2007: 2917
2008: 2799
2009: 2970
2010: 2959

While that data should make you feel comfortable in knowing there are steals to be had on draft day, let’s take a look at bit deeper and see how many players stole 20 bases or more in each of the past 11 years.

2000: 42
2001: 44
2002: 33
2003: 26
2004: 27
2005: 27
2006: 36
2007: 42
2008: 37
2009: 46
2010: 35

If we remove the years 2003-05, there have been at least 33 men each season who have swiped 20 bases in the 21st century. That gives us a fair baseline to work with in terms of evaluating how many players are likely capable of being difference makers in that category.

Let’s do a little more digging.

In 2006-07 there were 23 men who stole 20 bases in each season.
In 2007-08 there were 24 men who stole 20 bases in each season.
In 2008-09 there were 22 men who stole 20 bases in each season.
In 2009-10 there were 19 men who stole 20 bases in each season.

Which men will belong to the club from 2010-11?

What about three year snap shots?

2006-08: 14
2007-09: 16
2008-10: 12

How about we extend it out to four years.

2007-10: 10

Here are their names: B.J. Upton, Ryan Theriot, Bobby Abreu, Rajai Davis, Juan Pierre, Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford and Shane Victorino.

The one name there that sticks out is likely Theriot. A nice little player, he is an excellent option late in drafts if you are looking for help in the steals column. He won’t erupt for 40 thefts, but 20 seems like the floor, and don’t overlook his ability to also score runs as he has recorded at least 72 runs in each of the past four years as well.

Now that I’ve laid the ground work about the historical production in the homer and steals categories, lets add the two together and see what we an see.

POWER AND SPEED

We are all looking for 5×5 players on draft day – those guys who can contribute in all the categories. Alas, those guys go quickly on draft day at a premium. It’s then a scramble to piece together a group of guys who can contribute in the homer and steals categories. Looking back at 2010…

There were 44 players who had 10 homers and 10 steals last season.
There were 20 players who had 15 homers and 15 steals last season.
There were seven players who had 20 homers and 20 steals last season.

It’s conceivable that all of the 20 guys who went 15/15 will be drafted in the top-10 rounds of a mixed league draft. What about those 10/10 players? Here are some guys to keep an eye on.

Roger Bernadina (11 HR, 16 SB in 2010): Bernadina showed up to camp in great physical shape, and appeared on the sleeper list of yours truly from two months ago. Alas, it looks like the Nationals may not give Roger full-time work, at least early on. Jayson Werth and Mike Morse will play the corners with Rick Ankiel, Bernadina and Nyjer Morgan vying for time in center. If Bernadina can match last years 414 at-bats, he should be able to best his total from last season.

Ian Desmond (10/17): The guy is an outright butcher with the glove, but he is an effective offensive player. At the same time, he isn’t likely to ever hit 20 homers so there is a ceiling there, but the steals could continue along at a good clip if he can maintain, or slightly improve upon, his 78 percent success rate from last season.

Stephen Drew (15/10): Drew has already hit 21 homers in a season (2008). As for the steals, last year was the first time that he ever swiped more than 10 bases. Still, the guy has a lot of speed, and is smart on the bases. New manager Kirk Gibson said that he is going to turn Drew loose on the base paths, and that could lead to Drew doubling his steal total from ’10.

Franklin Gutierrez (12/25): Gutierrez gave back six homers from 2009 (18 to 12), but he added nine steals to make up the difference. He’s not a homer hitter, and his home park does him no favors, but he seems to have settled in as a guy who could push 15/25. Make sure of his health though – he’s been dealing with a lot of stomach woes which have hampered him all spring.

Chase Headley (11/17): Headley stole 14 bases in his first 247 games, so you have to wonder about whether or not he can repeat the steal total from last year. He added muscle this offseason, reports suggest 15 lbs., to help him to drive the ball better. The ballpark won’t do him any favors, Petco is death on power hitters, but if Headley can up his HR/F mark bat to around nine percent he could see a 50 percent increase in his homer total (his HR/F mark dipped to just 6.4 percent last year).

David Murphy (12/14): Arguably the best fourth outfielder in the American League the past few years, Murphy could get even more work this season since the Rangers are apparently souring on Julio Borbon because of his poor defense. Murphy is sneaky on the bases, but he only swiped 16 bags in 2008-09. However, add together his career best in homers (17) and steals (14) and you’d have yourself a pretty serious producer.

Will Venable (13/29): Venable stole 14 bases in 69 games in the first half and then 15 in his last 62 games. He’s been working with Davey Lopes, and the goal has been set for Will – 40 steals in 2011. Even if he doesn’t make it there, if he stays healthy he will run a ton and that should allow him to be a nice end game grab in mixed leagues.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at baseballguys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

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Fantasy Baseball 2011: 1B Player Rankings

Monday, March 21st, 2011

1. Albert Pujols (STL): Pujols is hands down the best fantasy player entering the 2011 season. Some may say his contract talks with the Cardinals may interfere with his production but I disagree. The Cardinals didn’t make any major moves this offseason that would hamper his production so 2011 should be more of the same form him. Expect to see another 40+ home run season, while contributing across the board except in the stolen base category.

2. Miguel Cabrera (DET): When you thought he couldn’t get any better, Cabrera turned in a career-year in 2010 becoming one of the best fantasy players in the game. He finished the season with 38 homers, 126 RBIs, 111 runs supporting a .328 batting average. He has now permanently placed himself in the elite category of fantasy players and can be drafted with confidence in the top five selections. Expect at least 38 homers and 120 RBIs from Cabrera in 2011.

3. Adrian Gonzalez (BOS): Coming off of a 40 home run season in 2009 Gonzalez was able to basically match his production in 2010 while raising his batting average from .277 in 2009 to .298 in 2010. Now a member of the Red Sox Gonzalez has the potential to out-produce his three-year averages in a loaded offense. If he can hit 30+ homer in a pitcher’s friendly ballpark the sky is the limit for Gonzalez having Fenway as his home field.

4. Joey Votto (CIN): Votto produced an MVP season in 2010 collecting the award over perennial All-Star Albert Pujols. He displays a rare combination of hitting for average, power and has the ability to steal bases on a regular basis. Although I don’t think he will repeat his breakout 2010 season, I think he will be a solid centerpiece for fantasy teams. If you plan on taking Votto you will need to likely use a late-first round or early-second round pick on him so be prepared.

5. Mark Teixiera (NYY): Teixiera’s 2010 season was rather disappointing to his standards, but he still finished with 33 home runs and 108 RBIs. He showed improvement in the second half of the season, which will hopefully carry over to the start of this season. If his splits continue to look like this, Teixiera will be more valuable in Rotisserie leagues rather than head to head leagues. Keep that in mind while drafting but either way he should give owners good enough production to use a second round pick on him.

6. Prince Fielder (MIL): Coming off of a monster season in 2009 in which he hit 46 home runs and 141 RBIs Fielder failed to repeat in 2010. The power was still there, but lack of base-runners limited his RBI production. Going into 2011 Fielder will hopefully have more opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position under a more run-happy manager. Look for Fielder to hit 35+ homers and drive-in 100+ RBIs putting him back in the top five at his position by season’s end.

7. Ryan Howard (PHI): For the first time in four years Howard failed to hit 40+ homers and failed to reach 130 RBIs. This diminished his stock going into this offseason and is now considered to be on the decline. While no one thought he could hit like that forever, no one expected a fall off this magnitude. We may has seen his last 40+ home run season in 2009, but he should still get at least 30 homers in 2011 making him worth a shot in the third round.

8. Adam Dunn (CHW): Dunn finally landed in the American League where he can be used primarily as a designated hitter. He will hit in the middle of a loaded White Sox lineup that should result in at least 40 homers and at least 100 RBIs. If he can control his strikeout rate and walk rate this may be one of the beast seasons in Dunn’s career.

9. Kendrys Morales (LAA): After a breakout 2009 season, Morales was off to a hot start before his season was cut short due to injury after just 193 at-bats. The early reports indicate that Morales will be ready for Opening Day, but that could change at any moment. He has the upside of 30 homers and 100 RBIs, but be sure not to reach for him due the injury risk associated with leg injuries.

10. Justin Morneau (MIN): Like Morales, Morneau was off to an MVP-like season before a head injury cut his season short. Last season wasn’t the first time he failed to play a full season so that is something to keep an eye on going forward. In a short-season he did however his 17 home runs while producing a .344 batting average so the potential is there. Be sure to check his status prior to draft day to make sure he is on track and ready for Opening Day.

11. Paul Konerko (CHW): While everyone throughout the fantasy world was ready to write-off Konerko in 2010 he proved all his doubters wrong finishing the season with 39 homer and 111 RBIs. On top of that he showed great discipline at the plate producing a .312 batting average. Although I don’t expect a reappear in 2011 he should be a solid contributor in the power categories and is a prime example of why you can wait on power for a corner-infield slot.

12. Billy Butler (KC): Some may say I have Butler ranked a little low, but his lack of power at times moves him down the ranks of mainly power-hitting position. He does hit for average, which is a plus, but his 15 home runs in 2010 were rather low for someone in a first base slot. Looking ahead to 2011, Butler should bat over .300 once again but don’t expect over 20 home runs especially in the Royals lineup.

13. Aubrey Huff (SF): Nobody saw Huff coming in 2010 as he finished the season with 26 home runs and 86 RBIs for the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants. His huge resurgence indicates that he still has the ability to produce at a high rate, but his age (34) is now starting to work against him. Huff should be drafted as a solid utility player or corner-infield player for the 2011 season.

14. Derek Lee (BAL): Despite being able to stay healthy for a full season, Lee owners endured major declines across the board in 2010. He is now headed to Camden Yards, which will be friendly to his hitting-style. Expect to see a bounce-back year from Lee in 2011 as he should increase his batting average while hitting around 20 home runs for the Orioles.

15. Adam LaRoche (WAS): LaRoche is often overlooked due to playing a deep fantasy position, but year-after-year has been one of the most consistent power-hitting first basemen in the game. He has hit 25 homers each of the last three seasons while changing teams four times. In 2011 LaRoche will now be a member of the Nationals where he will be looked at the drive-in a lot of runs so if you need a solid source of power looks LaRoche’s way.

16. Ike Davis (NYM): Davis hit 21 homers in his first full season for the Mets, but will need to raise hit batting average before being considered a solid fantasy player at his position.
17. Carlos Pena (CHC): the power is there, but a .198 batting average 2010 is a bad sign of things to come.
18. James Loney (LAD): Although Loney is very consistent he doesn’t produce the power numbers to make his a great fantasy option.
19. Michael Cuddyer (MIN): Cuddyer’s value depends on the health of Justin Morneau, but that could be a good thing for him if Morneau can’t battle back from his head injury.
20. Gaby Sanchez (FLA): Sanchez played well in his first full season of work and can be a solid backup option if he can increase his power production.

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Fantasy Baseball 2011: Ace Relievers Few And Far Between.

Friday, March 18th, 2011

Everyone knows the names of Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner and Mariano Rivera and the dominating runs they have had in the 9th inning…

You’re forgiven if you are reading this in a bit of a fog. After all, if you weren’t at least a little hazzy then you didn’t rock it all night in honor of St. Patrick’s Day, and that would be a shame. Since you’re likely not 100 percent focused, I thought I would launch into a discussion of sabermetrics today. I’m just kidding. I’ll try to keep things fairly straight forward today since I don’t want anyone to have to run for a pot of coffee after my article caused a headache.

Earlier this week I talked about Starting Pitching in Ready For The Journey Fantasy Baseball 2011: Therefore, it only seemed natural for me to talk about relief pitching today.

ACE RELIEVERS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN

Everyone knows the names of Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner and Mariano Rivera and the dominating runs they have had in the 9th inning. Of course only one of these ace closers is still pitching while the other two have ridden off into the sunset. Honestly, we’ve been spoiled by their greatness at the end of games to the point that some people fail to understand just how volatile the 9th inning can be. Some examples of the volatility follow.
How about we use the simple number of 20 as the baseline for a quick review of relievers.

29 relievers had 20 saves last year.
20 relievers had 20 saves each of the last two years.
12 relievers had 20 saves each of the last three years.
Eight relievers had 20 saves each of the last four years.
Six relievers had 20 saves each of the last four years.

If we up the mark to 30 there have only been five relievers who have hit that baseline each of the past three years. Face it folks, saves come from a myriad of sources and consistency is elusive at best. It’s not like 20 is a big number either, so I didn’t exactly set the bar very high.

Let’s go back a few years. Here a top-10 list of closers entering the 2008 season.
J.J. Putz
Jonathan Papelbon
Joe Nathan
Francisco Cordero
Mariano Rivera
Bobby Jenks
Brad Lidge
Jose Valverde
Huston Street
Billy Wagner

Heading into 2011…

Putz is trying to reestablish himself after arm injuries.
Papelbon is coming off his worst season.
Nathan is coming back from Tommy John surgery.
Cordero had a 7.31 K/9 last year, almost two batters below his career mark.
Rivera, well, he’s still a star.
Jenks is now a setup man for the Red Sox.
Lidge is all over the map – as usual.
Valverde has produced only 51 saves the last two years.
Street is successful – when healthy.
Wagner is retired.
The point should be clear: the position is wrought with peril. One of the main reasons for that is the fickle nature of managers. Too often managers are trigger happy and start panicking when their closer tosses back-to-back poor games. The temptation to yank a guy from the role is always present, especially because when a closer blows the game the team often loses (compared to a reliever stinking up the 7th inning which still leaves his team two frames to try and catch up).
Another issue is the fact that clubs often want to have a “veteran” work the 9th inning. What this means is that frequently teams deploy their best reliever, skills wise, in the 8th inning leaving the 9th to the “veteran” closer. Look no further than Philadelphia where Charlie Manuel continues to turn to Brad Lidge in the 9th even when there is little debate that Ryan Madson is the better pitcher. Just take a look at their numbers the last three years.
B.Lidge: 3.99 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.62 K/9, 2.20 K/BB
Madson: 3.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.83 K/9, 3.60 K/BB

Seems pretty obvious, if we are talking about skills, who the better hurler has been in recent times. Still, Madson continues to work in the 8th inning.
Given the uncertainty of how managers choose which hurlers to use in the ninth inning, coupled with the fickle nature of the role, how should you go about targeting relievers to draft for your squad in fantasy baseball. I’ve got a few tips for you.

Make sure you are looking at the right skills when you draft. Don’t pull a “rookie” mistake and look only at ERA and saves. That’s the surest way to come out at the bottom of the dog pile. ERA and saves are, traditionally, a very poor way to attempt to understand the value of pitchers. What measures should you look at when discussing relievers and their ability to help aide your fantasy squad in the coming season? I’d suggest a couple of categories.

First, a pitcher’s K/9 rate. A reliever comes into the game needing to get outs while limiting hits. The best way to accomplish that is to simply not let batters put the ball in play.

Second, a pitcher can’t come into a game and start issuing free passes. Therefore, keeping the walks in control is essential.

Third, pitchers that are fly ball prone generally don’t make the best late inning targets. A homer in the 9th inning can lose a game, while guys that keep the ball on the ground will likely have to give up multiple hits to allow a team to come back.

What are the actual numbers you should target when you are looking at relievers? For more on that give  How To Evaluate Relievers a read.

One last note. Which pitching line would you prefer?

Pitcher A: 15 wins, 2.88 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 230 Ks in 225.1 innings
Pitcher B: 21 wins, 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 219 Ks in 250.2 innings

Pitcher B is Roy Halladay.
Pitcher A is Luke Gregerson, Matt Belisle and Arthur Rhodes.
Keep this in mind – rostering the right relievers can net you a bounty of production that could match the production of some of the elite talents in the starting pitching game, so choose those bullpen arms wisely.

ROOKIE RELIEVERS

There was a great article written by Seth Livingstone of USA Today this week about Young Closers . Here are some of the highlights of that piece.

(1) Only one pitcher in the top-35 for career saves posted more than 12 saves as a rookie – Todd Worrell in 1986 had 36.

(2) Only one reliever in the top-10 all-time in saves had 12 saves in his rookie season, and that was Rollie Fingers in 1969.

(3) There have been 14 rookies who have recorded at least 20 saves in a season since 1995.

(4) Seven rookies have recorded 20 saves in a season in the last six years which seemingly signals that clubs are more willing to give youngsters a shot in the 9th. Still, you would be advised that history doesn’t support the belief held by many that youngsters like Craig Kimbrel and Drew Storen will have big save seasons in 2011.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at baseballguys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the twitter.com/BaseballGuys.

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Fantasy Baseball 2011: Outfield Player Rankings.

Friday, March 18th, 2011

1. Ryan Braun (MIL): For the fourth season in a row Braun’s home run total dropped, but not enough to move him out of the No. 1 rank in his position. While this may be a concern to some prospective owners, it should be noted that he still finished with 25 home runs and 103 RBIs with a .304 batting average in his worst season for the Brewers. I would those down-year numbers any day. Carl Crawford is a close second behind Braun but he should still be taken at the end of the first round.

2. Carl Crawford (BOS): In a contract year Crawford set career-highs in home runs (19) and RBIs (90) while maintaining a .307 batting average in arguably his best season in the Majors. His production landed him a huge contract with the Red Sox and will now be a part of arguably the best offense in baseball. We know he is going to finish with at least 40 stolen bases but now calling Fenway Park home he has the upside of 20+ home runs. He is a safe pick in either the late-first round or early-second round this season.

3. Carlos Gonzalez (COL): Some people across the fantasy world may have had Gonzalez ranked atop the outfield rankings, but with a small sample size it is a safe bet to think that he will finish among the top three fantasy outfielders in 2011. In 2010, Gonzalez finished with 34 home runs, 117 RBIs, 111 runs, 26 stolen bases with a .336 batting average landing him in the top 10 by season’s end. He had a ridiculous season, which will make him overvalued in most fantasy drafts. It is hard to even project a player that had that kind of year, but 30 homers and 100 RBIs to go along with 20+ steals is not out of the question.

4. Matt Holliday (STL): Year after year Holliday continues to produce outstanding fantasy value without taking a hit in any one category. He finished the 2010 season with 28 home runs and 103 RBIs while maintaining a .312 batting average. His batting average took a hot for the fourth season in row but it has been as a very low rate so that shouldn’t be too much of a concern. Draft Holliday with confidence because you know what you are going to get out of him.

5. Josh Hamilton (TEX): After winning the 2010 American League MVP Award you are probably wondering why he isn’t higher on my list. The problem with Hamilton is that he always finds a way to miss time due to injury, which should be a red-flag when evaluating him come draft day. I do not doubt his talent, but he needs to prove he can stay healthy for more than one season at a time before he gets looked at as the No. 1 option among fantasy outfielders. With that said he still should be drafted in the second round despite all the negatives that come with drafting a high-risk high-reward player like Hamilton.

6. Nelson Cruz (TEX): Like Hamilton, Cruz has overwhelming talent that can carry a fantasy baseball team. Also like Hamilton, Cruz can’t stay healthy. He has the upside of 40+ homers and 100+ RBIs if he can get the at-bats. In 399 at-bats in 2010 Cruz finished with 22 home runs and 78 RBIs to go along with 17 stolen bases and a .317 batting average. So the five-tool skill-set is definitely there and could benefit those who take a gamble on his health this season.

7. Shin-Soo Choo (CLE): For the second straight season Choo finished the season with a .300 batting average with at least 20 home runs and at least 80 RBIs. He also contributed to his value on the base paths stealing over 20 bases for the second straight year. When players start displaying this type of consistency it makes it easier to accurately project their next season. Expect at least 20 homers, 80 RBIs and 20 steals from Choo this season.

8. Matt Kemp (LAD): Going into the 2010 season Kemp was a border-line first round pick and thought of a great source of production in all categories. The season started out good for Kemp, until a slump came in the second half that really brought down him overall production. What concerns me the most about Kemp was his lack of steals in 2010 (19) compared to his steal in 2009 (34). His power seems to still be there, but he is in danger of falling out of the top 10 among outfielders if his base-blunders continue into 2011.

9. Jayson Werth (WAS): Werth put together his third-straight quality season as a five-tool threat in fantasy baseball. In 2010 Werth finished with 27 homers and 85 RBIs while maintaining a .296 batting average. He is sneaky-fast as well once he gets to first base, totally 53 steals over the last three seasons (13 in 2010). The move to the Nationals may mean decreased production in a lesser offense, but in the end expect much of the same from Werth that he has shown the last three seasons.

10. Alex Rios (CHW): In his first season playing for the White Sox Rios proved to his doubters that he can still produce at a high quality level. He finished the 201 season with 21 home runs, 88 RBIs, 34 stolen bases with a .284 batting average making him one of the top all around fantasy players. The 2010 season proved that 2009 was just a down year and what he did last season seems to be his normal production. Others may still have him ranked outside of the top 10 so be sure to capitalize on his five-tool skill come draft day.

11. Justin Upton (ARI): Upton failed to repeat his breakout 2009 season finishing with 17 home runs, 69 RBIs, 18 stolen bases with a .273 batting average. Although his 2010 numbers aren’t extremely bad, he still declined in every major category and will now have to prove he can return to the top 10 of fantasy outfielders. Upton should be able to rebound with a healthy season, but he is still a risk after last season.

12. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS): After three very productive seasons, Ellsbury suffered a rib injury that limited him to just 87 at-bats in 2010. He never seemed to be able to shake off the injury, but with the majority of the 2010 season off Ellsbury should be fully healthy come draft day. Be sure to check his progression throughout Spring Training.

13. Andrew McCutchen (PIT): In his first full season as a starter McCutchen repeated his 2009 season finishing with 16 homers, 56 RBIs and 33 stolen bases. McCutchen is only going to continue to get better from here as he matures into an elite-level fantasy player. His ability to flash both power and speed along with a healthy batting average makes him a great addition in any fantasy format and he will come at a reasonable price after the top tier of outfielders.

14. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA): Year after year Suzuki puts up consistent fantasy value despite entering the 2011 season at the age of 37. He finished the 2010 season with a .315 batting average and 42 stolen bases. His 42 stolen bases were up from 26 stolen bases just a year prior, which is a sign that his age is not catching up to him. The Mariner lineup is going to have its troubles this year but Suzuki should be a solid contributor despite the lack of support around him.

15. Shane Victorino (PHI): Victorino set a career-mark in home runs in 2010 in which he hit 18 homers to go along with a career-high 69 RBIs and 34 stolen bases. His stolen base totals met his career average while the increases in power numbers were most likely a direct effect of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley missing time due to injury. While I don’t expect Victorino to repeat his home run totals in 2011, I still think he is a great pick as a No. 2 outfielder in most fantasy formats.

16. Mike Stanton (FLA): Stanton struggled at times after an early-season call up inserted him into the Marlins starting lineup. In 359 at-bats Stanton hit 22 home runs and 56 RBIs but struggled with his batting average on regular basis. His splits from 2010 suggest that he can produce consistent production, which should amount in 30+ home runs and 100+ RBIs with a full season of at-bats in the Majors. Especially in keeper leagues be sure to target Stanton, but don’t over pay based on the hype around him this offseason.

17. Hunter Pence (HOU): For the third season in a row Pence hit 25 homers while hitting at least 72 RBIs for the Astros. He set a career-high in RBIs in 2010 with 91 and cross the plate for 93 runs scored. He quietly put together a great all around season that didn’t get much notice in fantasy circles. He has shown great consistence over the last three seasons and is a great No. 2 outfielder in most fantasy formats.

18. Jason Heyward (ATL): Heyward was able to live up to the hype in 2010 as he won a spot in the Braves outfield in Spring Training and never looked back. He finished the season with 18 home runs, 72 RBIs while maintaining a .277 batting average. Although he struggled at times he still proved why he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball. This season Heyward should take yet another step into becoming a superstar player and could become a top 10 fantasy outfielder by season’s end. He is going early in most fantasy league so be sure not to overpay because he will likely still have some growing pains.

19. Corey Hart (MIL): After a terrible 2009 campaign, hart bounced-back in a big way. He finished the 2010 season with 31 home runs and 102 RBIs with a .283 batting average. Although the huge just is a concern Hart seems to have figured out the problems that haunted him throughout 2009 and moved on. However, his stolen base totals have dropped each of the last three seasons and now is more of a four-tool player rather than a five-tool player.

20. B.J. Upton (TB): Upton once again failed to live up to expectations in 2010, failing to halt his falling batting average that has decreased every year since 2007. He finished the season with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs with 42 stolen bases. The stolen bases have been consistent for the last three years so that is nothing to worry about. If he could improve his plate discipline his stolen base totals could go up even more, but don’t count on it.

21. Andre Ethier (LAD): Ethier was off to a monster season before a finger injury slowed him down in May and still finished with 23 homers and 82 RBIs. He did go through a minor slump in the second half of the season that resulted in a .057 slide in batting average, but that shouldn’t be of much concern. He has showed he has the skill set to hit for both power and average so look for Ethier to be a solid contributor in most fantasy formats.

22. Vernon Wells (LAA): Wells bounced back in a major way in 2010 increasing his output in all categories including swiping 17 steals, which was a three-year high. He hit over 30 home runs for the first time since 2006 while maintaining a respectable .273 batting average. Although Wells is now a member of a better all around team, he will most likely take a hit in the power categories due to his home ballpark in Los Angeles. Don’t expect a repeat of 2010, but 25 home runs and 80 RBIs is not out of the question.

23. Chris Young (ARI): After being up and down between the majors and the minors the last few seasons Young was able to secure his spot in center field putting up huge numbers in terms of fantasy. He finished the 2010 season with 27 home runs, 91 RBIs, 28 stolen bases and a .257 batting average, which is great for Young. The increase in batting average indicates that maybe he has finally put it all together and has learned to be patient at the plate. If he continues this trend we may be talking about him in the top 10 amongst fantasy outfielders next season.

24. Jay Bruce (CIN): Bruce was able to increase his batting average by .058 to .281, which helped him hit resurrect his diminishing fantasy value. In 2009 he only helped fantasy teams in the power categories, but with his newly found patience at the plate he is now a contributor in batting average and runs scored in 2010. Although I think he is still a year or two away from reaching his full potential, he would make a great No. 2 or No. 3 outfielder in most formats.

25. Curtis Granderson (NYY): Granderson had a rough start to his career in pinstripes last season, batting just .226 through the first half of the season. He was able to salvage what was left of the season after the All-Star break connecting for 17 home runs and 45 RBIs making him one of the top fantasy outfielders in the second half of the season. His batting average has dropped each of the last three seasons and continues to struggle with left-handed pitching so until he gets that figured out he will be a mid-tier fantasy outfield option.

26. Colby Rasmus (STL): For the third season in a row Rasmus was able to increase his production in all categories cementing his place in the Cardinals outfield. He finished the 2010 season with 23 home runs and 66 RBIs while maintaining a .276 batting average. If his trends continue going in the right direction he has the potential to hit 25 home runs this season, which is a great value in the middle of most fantasy leagues.

27. Delmon Young (MIN): It took almost five seasons for Young to finally breakout in the way that he was supposed to coming up through the Rays farm system, but it happened in a big way in 2010. Young was finally worked into the starting lineup for the Twins and was able to contribute with consistent at-bats. In 570 at-bats Young hit 21 home runs and 112 RBIs while keeping his batting average right around the .300-mark for the whole season. This production is just the start of good things to come and as long as he can stay healthy expect to see an even bigger season from him in 2011.

28. Bobby Abreu (LAA): For the first time in five seasons Abreu failed to reach 100 RBIs, but was still a solid contributor across the board. He finished the season with 20 homers and 74 RBIs to go along with 24 stolen bases and 88 runs scored. His batting average was rather low (.255 BA) for a player of his caliber and may be a sign that he is now on the downside of his career. Looking forward to 2011 Abreu will likely be used as the team’s primary designated hitter which will benefit him in the health category. Other than that he should be a solid selection for a No. 2 or No. 3 outfielder in most formats.

29. Juan Pierre (CHW): After being stuck in a timeshare system in Los Angeles for two seasons Pierre signed with the White Sox and was given a full-time role and paid dividends to those who took the risk on him in 2010. He finished the season with just one home run and 47 RBIs, but with 68 stolen bases made him a solid fantasy outfielder. He really only benefits owners in the stolen base category so only draft him if you are in need of steals.

30. Carlos Beltran (NYM): For the second straight season Beltran failed to play a full season and gave fantasy owners headaches throughout the season. In 220 at-bats Beltran hit seven home runs and 27 RBIs and was dropped in most leagues. He is now entering a contract-year and we all know what happened last time he was playing for a contract. With that being said I would expect a little more form Beltran this season as he tries to increase his value to earn a big check next offseason.

31. Jason Bay (NYM): Bay had a terrible year in his first season for the Mets hitting just six home runs and 47 RBIs in about half a season of work. Like Justin Morneau, Bay suffered a concussion early in the second half that cut his season short. While he will likely never hit like he did in 2009, he is a prime candidate for a bounce-back year in 2011 as long stays off of the injury report.

32. Nick Swisher (NYY): Swisher has settled in nicely each of the last two seasons in New York rewarding his fantasy owners. With 29 home runs and 89 RBIs he increased his fantasy value after a few poor seasons for the White Sox. He is most likely going to hitting in the No. 2 slot for the Yankees this season which should result in another good season for Swisher. At worst expect 20 home runs and 75 RBIs and use him as a No. 3 outfielder in most formats.

33. Nick Markakis (BAL): Usually a very consistent source of fantasy value Markakis entered the 2010 season as a top 20 outfielder and failed to live up to expectations. He finished the 2010 season with 12 home runs and 60 RBIs with a .297 batting average. While his batting average increased form a year prior, all of his power stats decreased in a drastic way recording 41 less RBIs in 2010 than in 2009. With the additions of Derek Lee, Mark Reynolds and Vladimir Guerrero the Orioles won’t need Markakis to supply the power anymore so look for more of a role-player role for him in 2011.

34. Michael Bourn (HOU): Bourn is one of the fastest players in all of baseball which results in high stolen base totals each year, but it is the other categories that keep him from being ranked higher on this list. He has hit a total of 10 home runs over the last three years while never going over 40 RBIs in his major league career. His solid production on the base paths has given him value and should be considered in the same category as Juan Pierre just on a worse team.

35. Drew Stubbs (CIN): Stubbs was finally given a full season of major league at-bats and paid off in a major way for those who picked him up off the waiver wire in 2010. He finished the season with 22 home runs and 77 RBIs with 30 stolen bases, missing the 30/30 club by just a few home runs. His batting average is a major concern, especially when trying to project his stole base totals. If he can show more discipline at the plate he has the potential to be in the 30/30 club by the end of the season.

36. Jason Kubel (MIN): He had relatively even splits in 2010, but playing time is a major concern with the breakout season from Delmon Young.
37. Rajai Davis (TOR): Davis is a speed-demon and should be drafted for that reason; just don’t expect much more in the other categories.
38. Austin Jackson (DET): Jackson was one of the luckiest batters in all of baseball last season when it came to batting average on balls in play so don’t expect him to repeat.
39. Angel Pagan (NYM): Pagan took advantage of the injuries endured by Carlos Beltran, but now he will likely be starting in right field so the adjustment may interfere with his offensive production.
40. Jose Tabata (PIT): Tabata quietly put together a solid fantasy season and has the chance to one day reach 50 stolen bases if he continues in this manner.
41. Brett Gardner (NYY): Like Jose Tabata and Rajai Davis, Gardner is a monster on the base paths, but doesn’t have stand out production in any other categories.
42. Carlos Quentin (CHW): Quentin suffered from lingering injuries in 2010 and needs to stay healthy in order to be a consistent fantasy player.
43. Denard Span (MIN): A down year dropped Span significantly in the rankings, but look for a bounce-back season from him since he is now in his prime.
44. Adam Jones (BAL): Back-to-back 19 home run seasons in a plus, but he has failed to reach his full potential and opportunities will be limited with upgrades in the Orioles lineup.
45. Dexter Fowler (COL): He has displayed great abilities on the base paths and will be fighting for a starting job so keep an eye on him throughout Spring Training.
46. Raul Ibanez (PHI): Ibanez’s home runs took a serious hit in 2010, which was his main category on contribution so draft with caution.
47. Carlos Lee (HOU): A major dip in batting average led to a slow start for Lee, but a bounce-back year is in line for this All-Star power hitter.
48. Alfonso Soriano (CHC): Soriano increased across the board in 2010 and should be able to repeat his production this season.
49. Desmond Jennings (TB): Jennings will be competing for a starting job this spring and if he wins a job he is a younger version of Carl Crawford so expect big things from him.
50. Coco Crisp (OAK): Crisp failed to play a full season once again in 2010, but still has plenty of fantasy value based on his small sampled sizes he produced the last two seasons.

Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at matthewbeck@rotoinfo.com.  Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information.

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Fantasy Baseball 2011: Relief Pitcher Value Pick

Wednesday, March 16th, 2011

The presence of Aroldis Chapman in the Reds bullpen has fantasy players shying away from Francisco Cordero is early mock drafts this season. Despite recording 40 saves last season, which was a three-year high, he is going off the board outside of the top 15 amongst closers. A sign of concern could be his eight blown-saves in 2010, which was a five-year high, but he still should be able to get the job done. His average draft position (ADP) is currently 218.16 which displays just how long fantasy owners are of Cordero this season. Whether you are a believer in Cordero or not the closer role is his job to lose entering the 2011 season so be sure to draft him with confidence despite the presence of Chapman.

The Twins are expecting to have closer Joe Nathan back for the start of the season in 2011 coming off of Tommy John Surgery which held him out of the 2010 entire 2010 season. So far through the beginning of Spring Training Nathan looks to be healthy enough to regain a spot as a top 10 fantasy baseball closer. Currently, Nathan has an ADP of 241.53, which is extremely low for what he has done in the past. Obviously coming off of major surgery fantasy players should be skeptical, but to be drafted outside of the top 20 closers is outright wrong. Expect Nathan to have a solid season in his first year of action back from injury making him a solid value pick in the later rounds of drafts this season.

The Pirates have named Joel Hanrahan as their starting closer for the 2011 season, which gives him solid value as a late-round pick in this year’s drafts. Formally a member of the Nationals, Hanrahan was looked to be their future closer at one point, but hasn’t surfaced as being a closer in a few seasons. Currently, Hanrahan is only being drafted in 75 percent of mock drafts and has an ADP of 276.05. Being able to draft him that late in drafts makes him a prime candidate to outperform what you paid for him. His only competition if he falters in Evan Meek, who best suited as a setup man so his job looks safe for at least the beginning of the 2011 season.

After blowing a few saves early in the 2010 season, Frank Francisco lost his starting job to Neftali Feliz who went on to with the American League Rookie of the Year Award. Now a member of the Blue Jays Francisco will once again have the chance to close out games making him a solid pick to fill out your pitching staff this season. Francisco currently has a ADP of 297.34, which is an absolute steal and will pretty much guarantee great value. However, there are a few other guys on the Blue Jays bullpen that could take over the ninth inning role if he fails to convert saves early on in the season. Either way, he is definitely worth drafting in the later-rounds if you need a No. 2 or No. 3 closer in most fantasy formats.

*All average draft position data courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at matthewbeck@rotoinfo.com.  Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information.

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