Its Friday which means Im going to take full advantage of my poetic license. Ill touch on some players who are surging, some who are shrinking, one who you should immediately sell high on, and then give you my thoughts on how to rank players the rest of the season.
Three weeks ago this guy was likely on waivers if you are in a 12 team mixed league. However, thrust into a starting role due to injury, heâ€™s come out bashing with five homers and 14 RBI in his last 10 games. Heâ€™s also posted a hit in each outing, and in fact he is currently working on an 11-game hitting streak. Oh yeah, in those 11 games only two times has he failed to produce at least one extra base hit as his SLG has gone from .351 all the way up to .518. That man is Mike Morse.
Morse does have pop, he blasted nine homers in spring training and hit 15 last year in 266 at-bats, but what he is doing right now boggles the mind. Owner of a career .296 average, youâ€™d have to think it would be hard for him to reach that level, let alone sustain his current .319 mark, if he continues along with such a poor walk (six) to strikeout ratio (34). Still, heâ€™s as hot as they come right now, so start him with confidence.
Here are some other hot performing hitters the last 30 days.
The major league home run leader is not Jose Bautista (he does lead the AL with 11 bombs). The leader is Jay Bruce with 12. Bruce is also the only player in the game with more than 26 RBI the past 30 days. He has a whopping total of 33.
Matt Joyce, against all odds, continues to hum along with a .380 batting average the past 30 days. Amazingly though, that total merely places him third in baseball behind Jhonny Peralta (.387) and John Jay (.384). Let me round out the top-6 by adding three more names you would never expect to see at the top of the league in batting average â€“ ever: Brendan Ryan (.372), Jose Bautista (.364) and Greg Dobbs (.346).
There have been four men who have swiped double-digit bases the past 30 days. Three of them are pretty obvious in Jacoby Ellsbury (12), Michael Bourn (11) and Elvis Andrus (10). The fourth man though is a bit of an outlier given that he set a career best last season with 22 steals. This year Erick Aybar already has 14 stolen bases including 10 of them the past 30 days.
ON CHILL MODE
These guys have seemingly forgotten that weâ€™re about to summer time as they continue to perform as if they are somewhere on the frozen tundra in a deep freeze.
Itâ€™s time to give up on Sean Oâ€™Sullivan, even if you are in a deep AL-only league. Over his last six outings heâ€™s not only gone 1-4 and heâ€™s allowed more runs than innings pitched with a 9.19 ERA. Moreover, his total of 33 earned runs allowed over the last 30 days is more than double the total of 14 that the AL ERA leader, Josh Beckett (1.80), has allowed all season.
Fausto Carmona has gone 0-3 in his last five starts with an ERA of 6.54. You can blame two things right off the top. Heâ€™s allowed 1.42 homers per nine innings and posted a left on base percentage of 48.8 percent. Carmona is never a strong option in mixed leagues, he doesnâ€™t miss enough bats, but he should return to the level of usefulness in an AL-only situation once his performance normalizes. Given that he owns a career 0.81 HR/9 mark with a left on base percentage of 68.9 percent, itâ€™s fair to postulate that the turnaround should happen pretty quickly.
Brandon Morrow is both hot, and cold. Over his last six starts his ERA is 5.51 and heâ€™s walking 4.41 batters per nine innings. Numbers like that normally get you sent to the bullpen or the minors. However, there are few men in the game with a bigger arm than Morrow. Over those last 32.2 innings of overall poor performance, Morrow has still been able to rack up a gaudy 11.30 K/9 mark. When you strike out that many batters itâ€™s nearly impossible to loose your spot in the starting rotation. See if his owner is frustrated, and if he is, make an offer to add the power righty who could, maybe, possibly, turn things around and be a dominating pitcher moving forward.
Josh Collmenter: 3-1, 1.49 ERA, 21 Ks, 0.69 WHIP in 36.1 IP
There have been few pitchers in baseball that have performed better than Collmenter the last month. However, allow me to rain on your parade. I donâ€™t mean some showers either, Iâ€™m talking a downpour.
Itâ€™s all smoke and mirrors, all of it.
Collmenter has never been viewed as an elite level prospect. First off he simply doesnâ€™t own the stuff. Second, his minor league performance does not, at all, back up what we have witnessed so far.
In his entire minor league career heâ€™d never been a true standout. His career numbers reveal a 3.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, solid numbers to be sure, but nearly all of the goodness was at A or AA ball. Last year in Triple-A he posted a 5.77 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 1.50 K/BB ratio in 10 starts (he made one more start at Triple-A this season).
As for his work in the bigs this year, itâ€™s hallow. The ratios are superb, amazing really, especially when you break down his performance.
(1) His 5.20 K/BB ratio is nearly two batters below the big league average.
(2) His 0.99 BB/9 mark is unsustainable. Just look at his 3.1 career mark in the minors.
(3) Batters are hitting .163 against him. Certainly his delivery might be causing batters some grief, it is a bit unorthodox, but it doesnâ€™t explain the average. Just look at our old friend BABIP â€“ itâ€™s currently at .163. Considering that (a) the big league average is about .300 and (b) that Collmenter posted a .304 mark last season at Triple-A, does the word â€śtimber!â€ť mean anything to you?
This is as good as it gets with Collmenter. You already knew that though. What you might not be aware of is the fact that this could all go horribly wrong, very quickly. In a mixed league do yourself a favor and see what you can get for him. Even if youâ€™re in an NL-only league, it would be smart to float his name out there and see if you can lure anyone in to overpay for a hurler who weâ€™ll likely have forgotten about in three months.
Finally, for those of you wondering how you should be evaluating players moving forward, hereâ€™s a peak into the mind of a mad scientist. Youâ€™ll be able to find my thoughts on all the positions at the following links. What am I ranking? Iâ€™m ranking players the rest of the season. I took a little bit of my own thoughts, added in some early season trends and analysis, and tried to come up with my most educated of guesses as to how I would rank the players moving forward. Wonder how I didâ€¦
Rest of the Way Rankings – HITTERS
Rest of the Way Rankings -PITCHERS
Tags: Baseball, Fantasy, Fantasy Baseball, Mike Morse, Player Rankings, Rotoinfo, weekly rundown