Six pitchers going in all different directions are the focus of this article. Which ones should you be buying, and which should you be selling?

Tommy Hanson is up to 9-4 on the season after his latest victory Wednesday night. Hanson has won each of his last four decisions, those have come in his last five appearances, and the last 10 times he’s taken the hill he’s allowed more than two earned runs just three times. His fastball velocity is still two mph down, but he’s showing he can be an effective hurler even at less than 100 percen though the loss of heat has led to a loss in the strikeout column, his K/9 rate is 7.67 compared to a career 8.30 mark, and his walk rate is also at a career worst at 3.50 per nine. Clearly he still has room to improve as he’s also allowed a whopping 15 homers in 16 starts leading to a 1.46 HR/9 mark, light years above his career 0.91 mark. I’ll say this. He clearly isn’t operating at 100 percent efficiency but totally opposite than a guy like Chad Billingsley or Ricky Nolasco, even when he isn’t “right” Hanson can still be effective.

Tim Lincecum dominated a Dodgers club Wednesday that was without Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier who was injured in the contest (oblique). Normally that would have been expected. However, this season it’s been rare that he has been able to dominate anyone without having that one big meltdown leading to a bunch of runners crossing the dish. After allowing three runs to the Athletics in six innings in his previous start, Lincecum tossed seven scoreless against the Dodgers to drop his ERA to 5.60 and his WHIP to 1.49 (I can’t believe I used those two numbers with joy). Man has he been awful this year huh? Still, he’s walked one or two batters in three of his last five starts, and that is a marked improvement from his often out of control ways this season. I continue to preach that Lincecum is a nice buy low option given that his K/9 of 9.90 is a 3-year high and that his GB/FB ratio of 1.40 is just a hundredth off his career rate, not to mention the fact that I simply fail to believe, after three years of having his line drive rate in the 19′s, that he’s going to finish the year with a 24.8 percent mark. Better times lay ahead.

Jonathon Niese is far from a superstar, even though he pitches in New York, but it’s high time that people sit up an and start to take notice of his work on the bump. Niese has a solid 3.55 ERA and 1.27 WHIP on the season, and his skills point to there being the potential for slightly more from the lefty. The skills I speak of are an 8.63 K/9 mark, a 2.83 K/BB ratio an a 1.81 GB/FB ratio. Those are numbers that, if maintained over 30 starts, will lead to an awfully high level of success. The once outstanding factor right now is an HR/9 ratio of 1.32 which is far too high for a guy who has a 51 percent ground ball rate. Basically, every time he’s leaving a ball up in the zone it’s getting pounded into the seats. Don’t expect his current HR/F rate of 19 percent, almost double his 10 percent mark of last season, to be something that continues through the duration of the campaign.

Jarrod Parker and Dwight Gooden. Those are the only two hurlers since 1980 to allow one or fewer earned run in nine of their first 13 career starts (one last year for the Diamondbacks for Parker). How do you like them apples? That amazing run of consistency this season has led to a fantastic 2.57 ERA, but the rest of his fantasy line doesn’t really show off that success. Though Jarrod has been as consistent as any young hurler in the game, the Athletics anemic offense has allowed him to go a mere 4-3 on the year (remember, eight of 12 times zero or no earned runs have scored against him this year and he’s got four wins). He’s flat out dominated batters to the tune of a .205 batting average against so you’re left asking yourself – how on earth is his WHIP 1.21? It’s all those flipping walks. Parker has issued 36 free passes, “good” for a 4.40 BB/9 mark, which has led to a poor 1.61 K/BB ratio (the league average is about 3.10 walks and 2.10 for the ratio). If he keeps walking this tightrope and issuing all those free passes, there’ no chance he’ll be able to keep his ERA even within a run of where it currently is. Keep that in mind if you’re thinking of targeting the righty.

Ricky Romero was shelled in his last start for eight runs in just three innings to drop his ERA to 4.94 and his WHIP to 1.43. For a pitcher who posted marks of 3.73 and 2.92 in the ERA column and 1.20 and 1.14 in the WHIP column the past two years, 2012 has been an abysmal failure to this point. Romero is still keeping the ball on the ground with his customary/exemplary 55 percent ground ball rate, but that’s about all the good that is going on here. His K-rate is down more than half a batter at 6.41 per nine. That alone wouldn’t be cause for too much concern, but when coupled with him adding a full batter to his walk rate, it spells doom. Romero is currently issuing 4.76 free passes per nine innings doing his best to impersonate Francisco Liriano. The game really isn’t that complicated most of the time. Throw quality strikes and you have success. Miss your target up and/or out over the plate, and big league batters will make you pay. Given his nearly season long struggles making a move to add Romero could pay off in the second half as you’ll likely be able to acquire his services for dirt cheap – but he has a lot of ways to go.

Anibal Sanchez had a 2.56 ERA on June 1st. Now his ERA sits at 3.94 after a month that he would like to forget. In five June starts Sanchez went 1-3 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Admittedly, when a pitcher pulls a “Lincecum” there is certainly a reason to be concerned. I get that. At the same time, I’d like to think we’d cut that guy some slack if his overall production is the type of stuff we were expecting. Let’s compare his 2011 effort to what he has done so far this year.

2011: 3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.26 K/9, 3.16 K/BB, 1.24 GB/FB
2012: 3.94 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.16 K/9, 2.90 K/BB, 1.48 GB/FB

A little up, a little down, but overall pretty much the same, right? He’s also seen his BABIP go down a wee bit from .310 to .290, and his line drive rate has taken a similar dip (from 20.2 to 18.8).

Look, I’m not going to sit here and say that everything is perfect with Sanchez, he did blow chunks in June, but if you look at the entire package you will still see a solid pitching line that should be right in line with what expectations were coming into the campaign. See if you can buy him at a discount, though make sure not to overpay given the recent hiccup.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

This entry was posted on Friday, June 29th, 2012 at 2:34 pm and is filed under Fantasy Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.