Which pitchers should you be considering giving up on, and which should you continue to have confidence in?
Roy Halladay has looked pretty sharp over his last six outings as he’s posted a 0.87 WHIP over 39 innings. His ERA is a wee bit elevated at 3.46 in that time, but the 36 Ks an a mere four walks suggest that he’s pretty much back on track. I have to admit to being concerned with Halladay given his health setback this year and terrible month of May (6.11 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), but he’s still sporting a 5.11 K/BB ratio for the season and his 1.05 WHIP is more indicative of his performance than his 6-7 record or 3.80 ERA.
Brandon McCarthy had a 3.32 ERA and 1.13 WHIP last season, his first year with the A’s. Unfortunately, as has long been the issue with Brandon, injuries limited his workload and therefore overall fantasy value (he made 25 starts covering 170.2 innings). Injuries have again conspired to sap his fantasy value as he’s made only 14 starts, and with 90.2 innings on the year he has no chance to match even that moderate 170.2 inning total from last season. Still, he’s been just as impressive as he was last year with a 2.68 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the year. Moreover, his last five outings have resulted in a 3-1 record with a 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. As long as he is out there you can have confidence in starting McCarthy. Unfortunately, you can’t have any confidence in his ability to avoid injury the rest of the way.
Wandy Rodriguez hasn’t exactly been the boon that the Pirates hoped he would be when they made the move to add him to their rotation. Wandy allowed 10 hits and five runs Wednesday night to lower his record as a Pirate to 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Wish I could say it was bad luck that led to those numbers, but I really can’t. I know he’s generating more grounders than ever before, but 12 Ks in 24.2 innings just isn’t going to be good enough to get her done. Over his last 10 outings he’s only allowed less than three runs one time as hie season long ERA has gone from 3.52 to 4.06. He’s tough to trust in mixed leagues right now.
Ricky Romero won 29 games the past two years. He’s won eight, while losing 10, this season (he’s picked up a loss in nine of his last 10 outings). Romero posted ERA’s of 3.73 and 2.92 the past two years. This year that mark has nearly doubled to 5.47. His 1.29 and 1.14 WHIP marks have skyrocketed to 1.52 this season. A K-rate of over seven per nine innings has fallen to 6.25 this year. A BB/9 rate of about 3.50 has added a whole batter at 4.75 this season. It’s all bad here folks. About the only thing that he continues to do well is generate grounders as his GB/FB ratio is impressive at 2.03, slightly above his 1.96 career mark. Romero has actually tossed three straight quality starts heading into his last outing, but after he regressed to six runs in six innings against the White Sox hopes of a turnaround have been dashed.
Ervin Santana has been nearly as bad as Romero if you judge him by his yearly marks (6-10, 5.59 ERA, 1.34 WHIP). He’s been so uneven of late that the Angels damn near removed him from the starting rotation. Maybe it’s a good thing that they didn’t. It’s only been a four game turnaround, and that certainly doesn’t wipe out the horrible numbers he posted in his first 19 outings, but things are actually looking up. Santana has walked one batter in each of his last four outings showing much better control than he flashed earlier in the year. He’s also posted a 3.70 ERA and an impressive 0.90 WHIP in those four starts. So how has his WHIP been under one yet his ERA so high? It’s those damn long balls. Santana has allowed five homers in his last four outings, and seven in his last five. On the year Santana has allowed 28 homers, already a career worst. He’s also averaging 1.86 homers per nine innings, and that’s light years ahead of his 1.21 career mark. He’s also got a HR/F mark of 19 percent, nearly double his career rate of 10.5 percent. There’s just no way that this can continue. Sooner or later the homers will dry up. It might not happen this year, it might, but eventually those long balls will start to avoid the outfield bleachers. Until then, Santana remains a dicey start-to-start play.
Max Scherzer is one of the more annoying owns in fantasy baseball. He’s got a massive arm that has led to 178 Ks in just 140.2 innings. That strikeout total leads baseball. At the same time he’s also sporting ratios that are worse than the league average (4.41 ERA, 1.39 WHIP). Unfortunately, those ratios mirror his work last season when he had a 4.43 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. However, Scherzer has started to pitch a bit better of late going 4-1 with a 3.74 ERA over his last seven starts. Still, that WHIP is above his yearly mark at 1.41 in those seven outings. For whatever reason Scherzer is starting to seem like one of those pitchers, think Ricky Nolasco for years, that always seem to have better skills than the results would suggest. You simply cannot turn away from Scherzer since he legitimately has the stuff to be a top-20 starter, but you had better be sure you’ve got other arms to help you manage the ratios because no matter how talented Scherzer is he’s just never been able to dial up the old consistency.
Stephen Strasburg was again impressive against the Giants in his last outing allowing just two runs, while striking out seven batters, over six innings. Up to 14-5 on the year with a 2.91 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, the Nationals are intent on shutting him down early (though none of us seem to have a firm handle on when that might be). What continues to be obvious is that the Nationals are handling this dynamic arm with kid gloves. Despite the fact that he has been one of the most dominating hurlers in baseball this year he’s still only gone seven innings five times this season, and over his last nine starts he is averaging just 5.48 innings a start. Moreover, in a career that spans 41 starts Strasburg has never recorded more than 21 outs in a game. Actually, it’s pretty remarkable that Stephen has 14 wins this year since the Nationals consistently pull him out of games so early.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
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