Wayne Bretsky
Twitter: @BretskyBall
Like us of Facebook: www.facebook.com/bretskyball
We’re taking a look at some of the studs and duds over the past couple of weeks. While you shouldn’t over-react to such a small sample size, there’s a good chance many of your league-mates will. Today, we’ll examine six pitchers who have been trending either for the better or for the worse. For some, recent performance is hidden in the overall numbers, which could provide you with an opportunity to extract some value on the open market, while others have been trending in the wrong direction and it’s time for you to pay them some attention.
Three up
Yovani Gallardo
Season: 6-6, 102.1 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 101 K, 47 BB, 8.9 K/9
Since May 8: 5-3, 69.2 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70 K, 33 BB, 9.0 K/9
Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo has turned his season around, ripping off five straight quality starts while posting a solid 2.97 ERA over his last 11 turns. Gallardo possesses enticing strikeout ability and has the raw stuff to make him a fantasy ace. What he lacks, however, is consistent control. Yovani is handing out 4.1 BB/9, a huge rise from the 2.56 number he posted in 2011. Gallardo allowed 3.6 walks per nine in 2010 after he put up a brutal 4.6 number in that category in 2009 and, while he had an ERA under four in both of those seasons, Yovani was a WHIP-killer for you mixed league team. Gallardo is doing much more of the same in 2012 and despite his improved performance, is still walking way too many batters. The strikeouts are nice, but a WHIP approaching 1.40 is unacceptable out of a fantasy “ace.” Do your ratios a favor and sell Gallardo based on his recent performance.
Bretsky’s recommendation: Sell
Players we’d trade Yovani for: Matt Garza, Ryan Vogelsong, Austin Jackson
Justin Masterson
Season: 5-7, 110.1 IP, 3.92 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 86 K, 43 BB, 7.0 K/9
Since May 15: 4-4, 62 IP, 2.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 53 K, 17 BB 7.7 K/9
Justin Masterson stormed out of the gates in 2012 with a ridiculous 10-strikeout performance on opening day. He followed that effort with a brutal seven game stretch in which he posted a 6.25 ERA and dropped three of four decisions. Masterson walked more batters than he struck out during the seven game run of awfulness, but has since turned a corner. Though he struggles, at times, to put away left-handed batters, Masterson has been just dominant in June and July, posting an ERA under 2 and a BAA under .200 over his past 42 innings; couple these gains with an improved wake rate and we can’t help but buy the recent performance. Though we don’t expect an ERA under 3 for the rest of the way, a number around3.50 seems reasonable with decent strikeout totals. Masterson checks in as a solid No. 4 or 5 starter for your mixed-league roster.
Bretsky’s recommendation: Buy
Players we trade to get Justin: Ubaldo Jimenez, Doug Fister, Mike Aviles
Mike Leake
Season: 3-6, 98.2 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.26, WHIP, 67 K, 22 BB, 6.1 K/9
Since May 15: 3-1, 67.0 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 51 K, 11 BB, 6.9 K/9
After a rough start to the season, Reds starter Mike Leake has turned things around. Leake tossed a complete game victory two turns ago and followed it up with a quality effort Wednesday. Leake has allowed three earned runs or less in 11 of his previous 12 starts, while lowering his ERA from 6.21 to 4.12 with a 51:11 K-to-BB ratio over his last 67 innings (2.55 ERA). The recent performance is surely what the Reds had in mind when they selected him No. 8 overall in the 2009 draft. After a mediocre rookie season, Leake took a step forward in 2011, putting up a 3.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while winning 12 games for Cincinnati. His fantasy value, however, has typically been capped by the so-so 6.1 K/9 rate he has posted through 63 career starts. Over his recent hot streak, the 25-year-old hurler has nudged that number right up toward 7.0 K/9, making him a lot more interesting fantasy commodity. Leake’s June FIP/xFIP of 3.31/3.11 are indicative of his improvement of late, and we are very much buying his success as a sign of things to come. Leake has developed into a solid back-end option for mixed leaguers and remains available in over 85% of standard 12-team leagues. Though not so useful for fantasy, Leake gets some extra love for providing his own run support with a superb .900 OPS on the year!
Bretsky’s Recommendation: Buy
Players we trade to get Leake: Roy Oswalt, Kyle Lohse, Ivan Nova
Three Down
Anibal Sanchez
Season: 4-6, 101 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 92 K, 31 BB, 8.2 K/9
Since May 24: 2-4, 46.2 IP, 6.36 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 37 K, 17 BB, 7.13 K/9
Anibal Sanchez ripped off eight straight quality starts to begin the season before slumping in June along with the rest of his Marlins teammates. Though Anibal has been quite bad over his past eight turns, the upside remains. His walk-rate ballooned in June to almost four per nine innings, but his control was better during his last start despite allowing five runs and 11 hits in five innings. Sanchez’ FIP remains at a decent 3.51 with an xFIP of 3.58 for the year. As the Marlins begin to turn things around, Sanchez performance should come with it. If he can continue to regain the control he displayed early on in 2012 a 3.50 ERA with plenty of strikeouts is within reach. Sanchez wore down a bit in the second half last season, but for his career, the 28-year-old righty has posted a useful 3.40 ERA after the all-star break compared to a 4.14 number prior to the mid-summer classic. Use Anibal’s recent rough patch as a buying opportunity and grab the Marlins starter where you can.
Bretsky’s recommendation : Buy
Players we’d trade to get Anibal: Tommy Hanson, Johnny Cueto, Michael Cuddyer
Doug Fister
Season: 1-6, 54.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 46 K, 12 BB, 7.6 K/9
Since May 28: 1-4, 25.1 IP, 7.82 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 24 K, 5 BB, 8.5 K/9
For as bad as Doug Fister’s season-long numbers look, his recent performance has been even worse. Since May 28, Fister has posted an unpalatable 7.82 ERA and 1.73 WHIP, while also missing time for his second DL stint of the season. While the strikeout rate has actually been pretty solid over his last five starts, Fister has been far too hittable. He has, however, continued to limit the walks and while experiencing some poor batted-ball luck (.339 BABIP) and similarly poor fortunes in terms of HR/FB% (17.6). We like Fister’s ability to limit the free passes, but are not completely buying the improved strikeout rate. While he should certainly improve from his current levels, an ERA in the high 3s is not all that useful for mixed leagues.
Recommendation: Sell (10- and 12-team leagues); Hold (14-team and deeper leagues)
Players we’d trade Fister for: Phil Hughes, Francisco Liriano, Rajai Davis
James Shields
Season: 8-5, 111.2 IP, 4.11 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 104 K, 32 BB, 8.4 K/9
Since May 13: 3-4, 64.1 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 61 K, 17 BB, 8.5 K/9
Big Game James has suffered from some brutal luck over the past couple months and, as a result, is boasting a poor 4.11 ERA and painful 1.41 WHIP on the season. Those numbers are even worse since May 13, as Tampa’s No. 2 has stumbled his way to a 3-4 from that date. Still, Shields has posted better than a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk rate over that span and his season-long peripherals (3.69 FIP/3.43 xFIP) are fairly solid. The numbers are in line with his career ranges, however, he’s had varying degrees of success despite a similarly effective skill set. Shields is clearly suffering from a touch of poor luck with a low 68.6 LOB% and a .333 BABIP—career BABIP is .302.—and has, meanwhile, increased his strikeout rate just a bit. While it is going to be difficult to peg Shields for a sub-3 ERA from here on out, a performance that puts him on the outskirts of our top-30 in terms of starting pitchers for the rest of the season is anticipated.
Bretsky’s recommendation: Buy
Players we’re trading to get James: Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, Miguel Montero
Wayne Bretsky is the primary content author for BretskyBall.com. Wayne has been playing fantasy baseball since his teenage years growing up outside of Philadelphia, PA. Since his dreams of becoming the everyday third baseman for the Phillies have faded, Wayne is now on an endless quest to make fantasy sports as real as he is. Follow Wayne Bretsky on Twitter @BretskyBall or Like us on Facebook: www.facebook.com/bretskyball.
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