Coffin Corner: A look inside the numbers as you gear up for battles with clubs from the AFC.
Cedric Benson ran for 64 yards in his lone career matchup with the Rams, but he’s likely to blow past that mark this weekend as the Rams are allowing an average of 157 yards a game on the ground, the worst mark in football. The bad news for Benson is that the Rams have allowed only 10 rushing scores.
History says Joseph Addai is a good play against the Titans as he has three rushing scores against the club in his last three games. Unfortunately, Addai can’t seem to get his body to cooperate, and as such he’s a terrible play this week. Meanwhile, Donald Brown has a rushing score in two of the past three games.
Dwayne Bowe has managed to have success even with Tyler Palko under center )Bowe has averaged four receptions and 68.5 yards the last four weeks). Luckily for Bowe he’ll have a different quarterback throwing him passes this week. That’s significant because he is just 63 yards away from a 2nd straight 1,000 yard season. The Packers are a solid matchup for Chiefs as they are allowing the most passing yards in the NFC ‚Äď 288.5 a game.
Tom Brady has led the Patriots to a 10 win season for the 9th straight year. Only two other teams have done that (Niners, Colts). The Pats have also won 9-straight games in December. They’ve also scored 30 points in 5-straight games. Brady hasn’t had tremendous success against the Broncos though as he’s thrown for an average of 253 yards and just 10 scores in six games against them.
Antonio Brown is 75 receiving yards from one of the most improbable 1,000 yard efforts in recent memory. Hines Ward is nine away from his 1,000 milestone, though for the venerable vet that’s career receptions (he’d be the 8th guy to reach that total).
Michael Bush is averaging 87.8 yards a game on the ground as a starter in 2011. The Lions are allowing an average of 136.1 yards a game, sixth from the bottom in the league. The Raiders are tied for the AFC lead with 15 rushing scores (Houston), but the Lions have allowed only nine rushing scores on the year.
Reggie Bush has five rushing scores in his last six games. He faces a Bills club that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and one that has allowed 13 rushing scores in 13 games.
Andy Dalton gas made seven starts on the road this season. He’s averaging 212 yards a game while throwing for 12 scores and six interceptions. He faces a Rams squad that only allows 209 yards a game through the air but they‚Äôve permitted 19 passing scores in their 13 games.
Joel Dreessen has caught five passes for 45 yards the last three weeks. Why do I bring that up? Because three of those receptions have gone for touchdowns. The Panthers have allowed only four scores to the tight end position this season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for only four scores, against four interceptions, the past four games. The last time he faced the Dolphins he threw for no scores and two interceptions, an in his career against the Fish his ratio is 3:4.
Joe Flacco threw for 190 yards and two scores in his lone career outing against the Chargers. The last three weeks, as the Ravens focus more intently on their rushing attack, Flacco has averaged 182 yards and one passing score per game.
Arian Foster is 43 yards from his second straight 1,000 yard effort. Foster is averaging 87.0 rushing yards a game this season, and in his career he’s played 15 games at home running for an average of 106.6 yards. Carolina is allowing 129 rushing yards a week and has permitted 15 rushing scores in 13 games.
Dwight Freeney has 13 sacks against the Titans in 17 career battles.
Blaine Gabbert has thrown for two passing scores each of the last two weeks after failing to hit that total in any other game this season. He’s also hit exactly 19 pf 33 passes in those two games while throwing for 195 and 217 yards. This week he faces a Falcons defense that is allowing 241 passing yards while allowing 18 touchdowns on the year.
Antonio Gates has caught 11 passes for 183 yards and two scores in his last two games against the Ravens.
Shonn Greene leads the NFL with four rushing scores in December. He faces an Eagles club that has allowed 11 rushing scores in their 13 games this season.
Rob Gronkowski has scored in 6-straight games, and though the Broncos have allowed only five scores to the tight end and the fourth fewest points to the position this season, you’d be a moron if you didn’t start Rob and expect a huge outing.
Santonio Holmes has eight catches for 92 yards the past three weeks, simply dreadful numbers. However, he’s caught a touchdown pass in each of his last three games to give his fantasy owners some hope that things could still turn around. He faces an Eagles team that held him to three catches and 32 yards in his only matchup against them.
Chris Johnson has run for 100-yards in three of his six road games this season. He faces a Colts’ defense that held him to 34 yards on 14 carries in Week 8, but the Colts are the third worst run defense in football allowing 144.3 yards a game this season, and have allowed an AFC worst 18 rushing scores.
Maurice Jones-Drew leads the NFL with 1,222 rushing yards this season. He’s run for at least 80-yards in every game but one this season, and over the last four weeks he’s started to catch passes again with a total of 20 receptions.
Brandon Marshall needs 63 yards this week to reach 1,000 for the 5th straight year. Marshall was shut down in his last game against the Bills catching only one ball for five yards, but in his previous four meetings with them he had averaged 8.5 receptions for 85 yards. Look for him to fair better this week.
Dan Orlovsky has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 489 yards the past two weeks. Not bad for a guy who no one expected to start a game in 2011.
Philip Rivers is 22-2 in his career in the month of December, the best winning percentage of any QB in the Super Bowl era (.917). Rivers has enjoyed success against the Ravens with an average of 277 yards and two passing scores in three games against them (the last time he faced them he threw for 436 yards, the second best mark of his career).
Matt Ryan has the 5th most fantasy points of any quarterback in football since Week 9. In his last seven starts at home against an AFC club he’s thrown for 1,852 yards, 13 scores and just two interceptions. This week he faces a Jaguars’ secondary that is really beat up.
Stevie Johnson averaged seven receptions and 85 yards the first three weeks of the season. He then went on to have a stretch of 7-straight games where he failed to go for 60 yards (he also had only one score in those seven games). The last three weeks he’s found his groove averaging six catches and 81 yards. He faces a Dolphins club that has allowed 15 scores to the wide receiver this year.
Jason Taylor has faced the Bills 25 times in his career and has 22 sacks, his highest total against any opponent. He needs 3.5 sacks to pass Michael Strahan for 5th on the all-time list.
Tim Tebow is 7-1 as a starter and has helped the Broncos to 6-straight wins, only the third time in history a team has done that after starting a season at 2-5. The Broncos have won, including the playoffs, six of the last nine matchups with the Patriots.
Demaryius Thomas has been a point producing beast the past two weeks. Despite a few untimely miscues including letting balls go right through his hands, Thomas has caught 11 passes for 222 yards and three scores the last two weeks. This week he faces the worst pass defense in the league, the one that belongs to the Patriots.
Nate Washington is beat up and missing practice, but he’s coming off the highest yardage total of his career (130 yards), and he’s tied with Roddy White for most receptions on third down (25).
Random Start of the Week
(That one player you would never consider starting but for some reason he might be worth a look if you’re desperate.)
Greg Little, Brown
Little is 2nd amongst NFL rookies with 52 receptions (A.J. Green has 55). Little faces a Cardinals defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to wideouts this season, while there total of 174 passes completed is worst in the NFC. There has to be some concern with Little this week though since his pass tosser this week is likely to result in a pretty dicey situation for all Browns’ pass receiving options.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Tags: AFC, Fantasy, Fantasy Football, mlb closers, NFC, Rotoinfo