NFL Week 4 : Incarcerated Bob gives his picks and analysis on 4 picks + fantasy football adviceÂ .
NFL Picks Record 2011 Â Season : ( 33-15-1 +38.7Units L-Year)
NFL Picks Record 2012 Season : (5-9-0 -18.95Units YTD) :
Co Write-Up via Mike Adelmann (@m_adelmann84 on Twitter)
All Picks Tracked @Â http://gamblersfinalword.blogspot.com/p/bettors-edge-report_06.html
NFL Picks Week #4 9/30
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (Pick #1)
Vegas Line:Â NE Patriots -3.5
Vegas Total: Pats/Bills O/U 49
The Patriots are coming off of two straight losses, one to the upstart Cardinals, and the other on a last seconds field goal to the Ravens. The Bills have won two in a row, but have lost two of their star running backs in the process.
(Patriots Strengths, Offense) – Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. The Patriots have covered up their weaknesses at the offensive line by changing their offense; Brady has been moving the ball quicker, especially to Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker. Brady and Lloyd are beginning to click more and more each game, and Wes Welker is still abusing defenses underneath. Even though the Bills defensive line can get through this weak offensive line, Brady will utilize all his weapons to move the ball against this young, weak secondary.
(Patriots Strengths, Defense) – The biggest strength of the Patriots defense is their front lines. Their linebacking corps is the heart of this defense, and whatever running back the Bills happen to have this week will be shut down, but unfortunately for the Patriots, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a master of the 3rd down, with a QB rating of 115.5 on the down. If the Patriots can get pressure on Fitzpatrick, it will help their inconsistent secondary.
(Bills Strengths, Offense) – The duo of Fred Jackson and C.J Spiller has been nothing short of incredible, they have combined for 323 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, and 114 yards and 1 touchdown through the air. Granted most of this was C.J Spiller, but Fred Jackson is no pushover. Jackson has said that he is 75% sure that he will play, and I think he will suit up. But the true strength of this offense is the accuracy of Ryan Fitzpatrick on 3rd down. The Patriots defense on the other hand has been extremely generous on 3rd down, with 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 107.3 passer rating. If the Bills wants to win this game offensively, they will have to control the clock and convert on clutch downs.
(Bills Strengths, Defense) – Everybody can agree that Mario Williams has been a huge disappointment , but the interior of the line featuring Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus has been wreaking havoc for opposing quarterbacks, combining for 5 sacks. The weak Patriots offensive line will not be able to stop them, but the secondary will have to be the ones to take advantage. Jarius Byrd and Bryan Scott have been the two best defenders in the Buffalo secondary so far, rookie Stephen Gilmore will need to step up, he has been burned by Brandon Weeden and Mark Sanchez.
Key Injuries – The biggest injuries in this game are those to the Buffalo running backs, Jackson and Spiller. Spiller most certainly won’t play but Jackson has said that there is a 75% chance he will play. Even if Jackson plays, he doesn’t have the explosion Spiller has, and if Jackson doesn’t play, Tashard Choice will start and I don’t need to tell you that he won’t be much of a factor.
Key Matchup: Tom Brady vs. Buffalo Secondary – The young and inconsistent Buffalo secondary will be tested all day by Brady and his weapons. Julian Edelman will not be playing, but Lloyd, Welker, Gronkowski, and Branch will all be there. Brady will throw Gilmore’s way early and often, and if the Bills can create turnovers like they did last year, they will have a chance to slow down the Patriots.
Mike’s Pick – Patriots
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 8* PATRIOTS -3.5
NFL Picks Week #4 9/30
Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Pick #2)
Vegas Line: Cincy Bengals -1
Vegas Total: Bengals/Jags O/U 44.5
(Bengals Strengths, Offense) – Andy “Red Rifle” Dalton has been on fire lately, and no I’m not talking about his hair. He has thrown 6 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, while racking up 646 yards in the last two games, although this was against the horrid Browns and Redskins defenses. Not to mention, he has A.J Green at his disposal, and Jermaine Gresham is slowly becoming an elite tight end. The Jaguars secondary isn’t a pushover through the air, but on the ground, Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis should be able to improve his mediocre 3.6 yards per carry. The Jaguars are just two weeks removed from allowing over 200 yards to the Texans.
(Bengals Strengths, Defense) – The complete 180 that this defense has taken since last year is ridiculous. They are 32nd in the NFL in rush defense, and it isn’t even close. The plus side though, is the pressure they put on the quarterback. Geno Atkins leads the charge, and should be able to make the trigger-happy Blaine Gabbert turn the ball over. Dre Kirkpatrick will sit again, by Leon Hall will be back after missing last week. The secondary needs to step up in this game to take control.
(Jaguars Strengths, Offense) – The emotional win last week at Indianapolis will carry over into this game, but maybe not for all. Blaine Gabbert rarely takes shots downfield, and he should take advantage of this opportunity against a weak Cincinnati defense. Maurice Jones-Drew will benefit most though from this matchup, the 32nd ranked defense will not be able to stop this fierce rushing attack.
(Jaguars Strengths, Defense) – The Jaguars secondary is more talented than the Browns and the Redskins, but the issue that this defense has is the lack of pressure. If the Jaguars can finally get to the quarterback, they will be able to take advantage of defense through the air. Daryl Smith will likely be out for this game, so the Jags will have to focus on stopping the run.
Key Matchup: The most important matchup in this game is the Bengals run defense against Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD is obviously favored on paper against the league’s worst run defense, but if they can step up and slow down Jones-Drew, the Bengals secondary will take advantage of Gabbert’s mistakes.
Mike’s Pick – Bengals
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 10* BENGALS -1
NFL Picks Week #4
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (Pick #3)
Vegas Line: Philly Eagles -2
Vegas Total: Eagles/Giants O/U 47
(Giants Strengths, Offense) – Going on a 10 day break since their last game, the Giants offense without Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw absolutely torched the Panthers. Ramses Barden had his coming out party for 138 yards, as did Andre Brown for 100+ yards and 2 touchdowns. The Giants are missing David Diehl again for this game, but his replacement Will Beatty performed admirably in his absence, creating great lanes for Brown. With Bradshaw’s return, the Giants will have to establish the run, because the fierce pass rush of the Eagles will force Manning to throw short passes to Bennett and Cruz.
(Giants Strengths, Defense) – The Giants defense forced Cam Newton into 3 interceptions last week, and it was all because of their fierce pass rush. The pass rush hid their weaknesses in their secondary, which was torched by Tony Romo and Josh Freeman. The Giants have the 25th ranked run defense, so McCoy could be a problem all night. The Giants need to do what they did to the Panthers, and force Vick into some bad decisions. Vick has 9 turnovers in 3 games, including 2 fumbles last week. He struggles to read blitzes, and the Giants have some great ones. Vick could be in trouble all night, and make that Giants secondary look better than it really is.
(Eagles Strengths, Offense) – Where is LeSean McCoy? He only had 4 rushing attempts in the first half against the Cardinals last week. This offense has been mistake prone, mostly due to Michael Vick’s turnovers. Vick still has a rocket arm, but he has been holding onto the ball way too long, resulting in fumbles. He threw 4 interceptions against the Browns because he was trying to force tight throws. He will not be able to pull off the kind of play he has been using against the Giants. The Eagles need to establish McCoy early and often, then let Vick do his thing on play action.
(Eagles Strengths, Defense) – The way the Eagles will win this game is on defense, and they need to pressure Manning. Eli had all day in the pocket against the Panthers and he picked them apart. Babin, Cole, and Jenkins will need to expose this injured offensive line and get to Manning, forcing him to utilize Bennett. DeMeco Ryans will be used to slow down the tight ends, and stop whichever running back the Giants decide to use. The secondary was expose last weekend against Kevin Kolb, so they will need to shut down the dynamic duo of Nicks and Cruz.
Key Matchup:Â Giants’ defensive ends vs. Eagles’ offensive tackles – Tuck and JPP are arguably two of the biggest playmakers on the entire roster, and they are facing a weak offensive line. Demetress Bell and Todd Herremans will have the task of slowing down the pass rush, but they haven’t been successful in the 3 prior weeks, leading to 9 Vick turnovers. If the Giants can get to Vick early and often, this will be a turnover ridden game.
Mike’s Pick – Giants
Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: 10* PHILLY EAGLES -1
NFL Picks Week #4
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys (BONUS Pick)
Vegas Line: Dallas Cowboys -3
Vegas Total: Cowboys/Bears O/U 41.5
(Bears Strengths, Offense) – Jay Cutler and the Bears have had 3 of the best quarters of their season in one game, and have been in a slump since. That came against week 1 against the Colts, at home. Their offensive line has been terrible, forcing Cutler into mistakes, including a 4 interception game at Lambeau Field. The Bears need Matt Forte back, and he most likely won’t play in this game, leaving the load to Michael Bush who was also hurt last week. Brandon Marshall hasn’t been at his best since week 1 either, dropping a touchdown against the Packers in a clutch moment. If Cutler gets his protection, him and Marshall will be able to get this offense going again.
(Bears Strengths, Defense) – This defense leads the league in sacks with 14, and they are going to flood Dallas’ backfield and slow down DeMarco Murray and put pressure on Romo. The weakness of the Cowboys is obviously their offensive line, so the Bears should be able to keep this offense at bay for the most part.
(Cowboys Strengths, Offense) – The Cowboys offense is extremely similar to Chicago’s right now, they are both in a slump. Dez Bryant has been invisible the past few weeks, and Jason Witten is having the worst season of his career. He leads the league in drops with 6, and has looked slow off of the line. The Cowboys will need to do what they did in week 1 against the Giants, and exploit the secondary. They need to get Miles Austin and Kevin Ogletree in the middle of the field, and the biggest need is for Witten to have a bounce back game and beat Urlacher in the flats.
(Cowboys Strengths, Defense) – Whether or not Brandon Carr moves to safety, this is still a really talented secondary with Morris Claiborne and Mike Jenkins. But they may not have to worry about the secondary, because DeMarcus Ware is going to have a field day with this offensive line. He is going against J’Marcus Webb, who has has a terrible start to his year, and won’t bounce back against one of the best pass rushers in the game.
Key Matchup: Jason Witten vs. Brian Urlacher will be a great matchup if Witten returns to form. He is one of the best tight ends in the game when he is on, and when he is on, Tony Romo becomes extremely confident. The offensive line is under performing, so the check down will be utilized frequently, whether or not Witten shows up or not.
Mike’s Pick – Cowboys
INCARCERATED BOB’S PICK – EMAIL NOW FOR INFO ON THIS 10* PLAY…
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Mike & Incarcerated Bobâ€™sÂ â€śFantasy Sleepersâ€ť (Week #4)
For those keeping score…from last week, 3/5 of my sleepers scored over 12 points.
1) Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings – Coming off of the best performance of his career, Ponder has shown how much he has grown as a quarterback. He is facing a weak Lions defense that allows 250 pass yards a game. With Harvin, Rudolph, and Jerome Simpson back, expect him to have another great game.
2) Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Washington Redskins have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Josh Freeman is coming off of a terrible performance against the Cowboys, but he torched the Giants secondary. The Redskins are significantly worse than the Giants, so Freeman will spread the ball around with ease. Expect Williams to reap the benefits.
3) Ben Tate, Houston Texans – Facing one of the worst rush defenses in the league, and he is a part of one of the league’s best rushing attacks. Foster will obviously get his, but Tate is a big part of this offense. This game will get out of hand, and Tate and Foster will split the carries.
4) Joel Dreessen – Peyton Manning loves his tight ends, and the Oakland Raiders just gave up 2 touchdowns to Heath Miller. Dreessen has been targeted as much as Tamme, and he will be a great red zone target. I see him scoring at least one touchdown.
5) Golden Tate – The Golden Taint, the touchception, the list goes on and on. But the numbers don’t lie. Tate caught 2 touchdowns against the Packers, and he is facing the Rams who actually have a surprisingly good secondary. He will be Wilson’s favorite target though, with Sidney Rice being inconsistent the entire season. Tate will be a big red zone target for Wilson.
**BONUS #IBN SLEEPER PICK** Tim Tebow- Yes the man the myth Mr Tebow will finally be showcased properly by the Jets when they face the smash mouth 49ers defense. I expect three big plays from Tebow, so go ahead and start him if you have room on a big roster.
**All NFL Lines are from 5Dimes (5Dimes.com)**
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