Time is money when considering your ultimate fantasy football team at work.
An outplacement firm estimates that if fantasy football is made during the work day it could cost employers $6.5 billion in lost productivity.
Although acknowledging their study is “very rough” and “non-scientific,” outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas have calculated that if 22.3 million American workers spend one hour each week managing their fantasy team the cost to American employers in terms of waged paid to unproductive workers throughout the 15-week season would approach $6.5 billion.
According to the Denver Post, Challenger Chief Executive John Challenger noted that the estimate, “would not even register as a blip on the economic radar.”
“Employers will not see any impact on their bottom line and, for the most part, business will proceed as usual,” he said in a statement to the Post. “However, even if the economic impact is faint, it is important to acknowledge fantasy football’s overall impact as a societal and workplace phenomenon.”
Technology plays a complementary role to the rising popularity of fantasy football in the workplace.
The vast majority of leagues are played online, and players can now manage their teams using apps on smartphones, meaning it won’t just be office workers that are distracted with roster moves and trade proposals.
Another factor affecting workplace productivity is the league’s decision in 2006 to schedule Thursday night football games, as opposed to all-weekend games that could be prepared for later.
According to Challenger, here is how they reached the $6.5 billion figure:
It assumed that 8.2 percent of the 24.3 million fantasy football participants (as estimated by the Fantasy Sports Trade Association) are unemployed, leaving about 22.3 million employed team managers. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that weekly earnings for all Americans in the second quarter averaged $773 or $19.33 per hour. Assuming on the conservative side that fantasy football participants spend one hour each week researching stats and tweaking their rosters, the firm multiplied the $19.33 figure by the 22.3 million employed participants. That results in a dollar amount of approximately $430.9 million each week in unproductive wages paid by employers to fantasy footballers. Multiply that by 15 weeks and the total reaches $6.46 billion.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas are headquartered in Chicago.
Football — the real football, not that Trent Edwards/Brady Quinn stuff that’s been served up on a platter for the past month — is back for 2012. Changes you’ll be seeing in Week 1 include replacement referees, longer games laced with more automatic reviews, later afternoon start times and some new QB in Denver. A change you’ll see right now involves our weekly start/sit column.
In the past, we’ve used a formula to give you each player’s start-ability on a 100-1 scale. This season, we’ll be offering up average rankings from our list-makers, meaning that for the first time in years in this space, lower numbers reign supreme.
Thanks to truninerfan for ranking all six fantasy positions with me, to murphysxm for hitting QB/RB/WR/TE and to unc_rules1540 for ranking QBs and WRs. I’ve combined their rankings with my own, which are published at Fantasy Pros along with those from analysts across the fantasy landscape, to give you the Cafe’s first Start/Sit of the season.
Rank
Quarterbacks
Team
Opp
Average
1
Aaron Rodgers
GB
vs. SF
1.2
2
Tom Brady
NE
at TEN
3.0
3
Drew Brees
NO
vs. WAS
3.8
4
Cam Newton
CAR
at TB
4.0
5
Matthew Stafford
DET
vs. STL
4.4
6
Matt Ryan
ATL
at KC
5.8
7
Eli Manning
NYG
vs. DAL
8.0
8
Tony Romo
DAL
at NYG
8.4
9
Michael Vick
PHI
at CLE
8.6
10
Robert Griffin III
WAS
at NO
9.8
11
Philip Rivers
SD
at OAK
11.0
12
Jay Cutler
CHI
vs. IND
12.6
13
Peyton Manning
DEN
vs. PIT
13.6
14
Ben Roethlisberger
PIT
at DEN
13.6
15
Matt Schaub
HOU
vs. MIA
14.4
16
Carson Palmer
OAK
vs. SD
16.8
17
Andrew Luck
IND
at CHI
17.2
18
Joe Flacco
BAL
vs. CIN
19.0
19
Jake Locker
TEN
vs. NE
20.2
20
Russell Wilson
SEA
at ARI
20.2
21
Josh Freeman
TB
vs. CAR
21.0
22
Sam Bradford
STL
at DET
22.4
23
Alex Smith
SF
at GB
22.6
24
Ryan Fitzpatrick
BUF
at NYJ
23.0
25
Matt Cassel
KC
vs. ATL
24.2
26
Andy Dalton
CIN
at BAL
25.0
27
Christian Ponder
MIN
vs. JAC
27.0
28
Mark Sanchez
NYJ
vs. BUF
27.6
29
Brandon Weeden
CLE
vs. PHI
28.8
30
Blaine Gabbert
JAC
at MIN
29.0
31
Ryan Tannehill
MIA
at HOU
30.6
32
John Skelton
ARI
vs. SEA
31.2
33
Tim Tebow
NYJ
vs. BUF
33.4
34
Nick Foles
PHI
at CLE
34.6
Start: Robert Griffin III. We’re clearly buying into the RG3 hype in Week 1, ranking him ahead of proven options like Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning. You may have heard something about the Saints defense this offseason, and a rash of injuries could make for a highlight-package debut for the Heisman winner.
Sit: Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning may be the biggest “name” commodity in the history of fantasy football, but if you can get past that Hall-of-Fame resume, you have a quarterback who still has trouble making all the throws necessary to succeed playing in an offense with a poor route-runner as a No. 1 option and a subpar line. If I owned him in any league (which didn’t happen in any of my drafts due to risk aversion), I’d sell high after one great performance. We don’t think that’s coming this week.
Rank
Running Backs
Team
Opp
Average
1
LeSean McCoy
PHI
at CLE
1.4
2
Arian Foster
HOU
vs. MIA
3.0
3
Matt Forte
CHI
vs. IND
3.0
4
Ray Rice
BAL
vs. CIN
3.4
5
Darren McFadden
OAK
vs. SD
5.0
6
Marshawn Lynch
SEA
at ARI
7.4
7
Steven Jackson
STL
at DET
8.0
8
DeMarco Murray
DAL
at NYG
8.2
9
Doug Martin
TB
vs. CAR
9.4
10
Chris Johnson
TEN
vs. NE
9.4
11
Jamaal Charles
KC
vs. ATL
14.8
12
Fred Jackson
BUF
at NYJ
14.8
13
Rashad Jennings
JAC
at MIN
15.4
14
Stevan Ridley
NE
at TEN
15.4
15
Shonn Greene
NYJ
vs. BUF
15.8
16
Darren Sproles
NO
vs. WAS
16.0
17
Reggie Bush
MIA
at HOU
16.8
18
Ahmad Bradshaw
NYG
vs. DAL
18.4
19
Kevin Smith
DET
vs. STL
18.8
20
Frank Gore
SF
at GB
22.0
21
Donald Brown
IND
at CHI
22.4
22
Willis McGahee
DEN
vs. PIT
25.0
23
Michael Turner
ATL
at KC
25.2
24
Cedric Benson
GB
vs. SF
26.0
25
Jonathan Stewart
CAR
at TB
26.2
26
Toby Gerhart
MIN
vs. JAC
26.6
27
Peyton Hillis
KC
vs. ATL
26.8
28
Ronnie Brown
SD
at OAK
27.6
29
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
CIN
at BAL
28.2
30
Michael Bush
CHI
vs. IND
28.4
31
DeAngelo Williams
CAR
at TB
29.4
32
Beanie Wells
ARI
vs. SEA
31.8
33
Ben Tate
HOU
vs. MIA
32.0
34
Mark Ingram
NO
vs. WAS
35.6
35
Roy Helu
WAS
at NO
37.2
36
Jonathan Dwyer
PIT
at DEN
37.4
37
C.J. Spiller
BUF
at NYJ
37.6
38
Jacquizz Rodgers
ATL
at KC
38.6
39
Trent Richardson
CLE
vs. PHI
39.8
40
Adrian Peterson
MIN
vs. JAC
39.8
41
Isaac Redman
PIT
at DEN
40.6
42
Maurice Jones-Drew
JAC
at MIN
40.8
43
David Wilson
NYG
vs. DAL
41.0
44
Daniel Thomas
MIA
at HOU
42.0
45
Ryan Williams
ARI
vs. SEA
42.8
46
Alfred Morris
WAS
at NO
44.2
47
Pierre Thomas
NO
vs. WAS
45.0
48
Evan Royster
WAS
at NO
45.8
49
Montario Hardesty
CLE
vs. PHI
48.6
50
Kendall Hunter
SF
at GB
49.0
Start: Rashad Jennings. Maurice Jones-Drew is back, but he’s relegated to carrying Jennings’s equipment this week, as the Jaguars have committed to starting the guy that’s been in camp all offseason. Against the Vikings, I think the Jags offense will consist of Jennings run on first, Jennings run on second, pass to Justin Blackmon on third. Count on 25 touches for the borderline RB1.
Sit: Isaac Redman. Redman has been drafted like a starter all throughout the preseason, but it turns out that he’s not only stymied by the impending return of Rashard Mendenhall (who could be back by Week 6) but also the emergence of Jonathan Dwyer, who seems likely to draw the start in Week 1 and could have a slight edge in touches by the end of the game. Sadly, Redman’s peak value came and went before any real football was played.
Rank
Wide Receivers
Team
Opp
Average
1
Calvin Johnson
DET
vs. STL
1.0
2
Brandon Marshall
CHI
vs. IND
3.4
3
Julio Jones
ATL
at KC
4.4
4
Larry Fitzgerald
ARI
vs. SEA
5.2
5
Andre Johnson
HOU
vs. MIA
6.6
6
Roddy White
ATL
at KC
7.4
7
Greg Jennings
GB
vs. SF
7.8
8
Hakeem Nicks
NYG
vs. DAL
10.0
9
A.J. Green
CIN
at BAL
10.4
10
Jeremy Maclin
PHI
at CLE
11.4
11
Victor Cruz
NYG
vs. DAL
11.8
12
Dez Bryant
DAL
at NYG
12.2
13
Marques Colston
NO
vs. WAS
13.4
14
Percy Harvin
MIN
vs. JAC
13.4
15
Jordy Nelson
GB
vs. SF
14.2
16
Wes Welker
NE
at TEN
14.6
17
Steve Smith
CAR
at TB
18.2
18
Dwayne Bowe
KC
vs. ATL
21.2
19
Justin Blackmon
JAC
at MIN
21.6
20
Miles Austin
DAL
at NYG
22.8
21
Antonio Brown
PIT
at DEN
23.2
22
Eric Decker
DEN
vs. PIT
23.4
23
Vincent Jackson
TB
vs. CAR
23.6
24
Torrey Smith
BAL
vs. CIN
23.6
25
Reggie Wayne
IND
at CHI
24.0
26
Nate Washington
TEN
vs. NE
25.2
27
Mike Wallace
PIT
at DEN
28.8
28
Demaryius Thomas
DEN
vs. PIT
29.0
29
Pierre Garcon
WAS
at NO
29.6
30
DeSean Jackson
PHI
at CLE
30.4
31
Brandon Lloyd
NE
at TEN
31.6
32
Darrius Heyward-Bey
OAK
vs. SD
32.2
33
Titus Young
DET
vs. STL
32.4
34
Robert Meachem
SD
at OAK
32.8
35
Steve Johnson
BUF
at NYJ
33.0
36
Malcom Floyd
SD
at OAK
33.8
37
Lance Moore
NO
vs. WAS
35.4
38
Greg Little
CLE
vs. PHI
37.6
39
Michael Crabtree
SF
at GB
39.4
40
Danny Amendola
STL
at DET
39.8
41
Kendall Wright
TEN
vs. NE
42.4
42
Anquan Boldin
BAL
vs. CIN
42.4
43
Brandon LaFell
CAR
at TB
43.2
44
Sidney Rice
SEA
at ARI
44.0
45
Davone Bess
MIA
at HOU
44.2
46
Santonio Holmes
NYJ
vs. BUF
44.8
47
Austin Collie
IND
at CHI
46.2
48
Steve Smith
STL
at DET
46.8
49
Mike Williams
TB
vs. CAR
48.8
50
Santana Moss
WAS
at NO
49.6
51
Denarius Moore
OAK
vs. SD
52.0
52
Golden Tate
SEA
at ARI
52.6
53
Emmanuel Sanders
PIT
at DEN
53.8
54
Devery Henderson
NO
vs. WAS
54.4
55
Doug Baldwin
SEA
at ARI
55.0
56
Steve Breaston
KC
vs. ATL
55.6
57
Brandon Stokley
DEN
vs. PIT
56.2
58
Nate Burleson
DET
vs. STL
56.8
59
Earl Bennett
CHI
vs. IND
57.4
60
Harry Douglas
ATL
at KC
58.0
61
Donnie Avery
IND
at CHI
58.6
62
Early Doucet
ARI
vs. SEA
59.2
63
James Jones
GB
vs. SF
59.8
64
Laurent Robinson
JAC
at MIN
60.4
65
Julian Edelman
NE
at TEN
61.0
66
Jason Avant
PHI
at CLE
61.6
67
David Nelson
BUF
at NYJ
62.2
68
Jon Baldwin
KC
vs. ATL
62.8
69
Josh Gordon
CLE
vs. PHI
63.4
70
Keshawn Martin
HOU
vs. MIA
64.0
71
Randy Moss
SF
at GB
64.6
72
Eddie Royal
SD
at OAK
65.2
73
Preston Parker
TB
vs. CAR
65.8
74
Damian Williams
TEN
vs. NE
66.4
75
Domenik Hixon
NYG
vs. DAL
67.0
Start: Justin Blackmon. Let’s double up on Jaguars this week — did I just say that? The preseason has shown us that the Jaguars plan to take advantage of Blackmon’s catch-and-run abilities, a smart move considering Blaine Gabbert’s inability to stretch defenses. That’s going to mean a lot of wind sprints for Laurent Robinson and plenty of targets for Blackmon each week. I think he’s a safe WR2 at worst.
Sit: Santonio Holmes. The Jets offense looked like a complete mess this preseason, and while poor preseason play isn’t always a harbinger of things to come, fantasy owners can’t feel comfortable going to Holmes in Week 1, especially with Mario Williams likely setting up shop in the Jets backfield and pressing Mark Sanchez into five-yard ducks all day.
Rank
Tight Ends
Team
Opp
Average
1
Jimmy Graham
NO
vs. WAS
1.0
2
Rob Gronkowski
NE
at TEN
3.0
3
Vernon Davis
SF
at GB
3.6
4
Aaron Hernandez
NE
at TEN
3.6
5
Antonio Gates
SD
at OAK
4.2
6
Jermichael Finley
GB
vs. SF
6.6
7
Fred Davis
WAS
at NO
8.8
8
Kyle Rudolph
MIN
vs. JAC
10.0
9
Dustin Keller
NYJ
vs. BUF
10.2
10
Tony Gonzalez
ATL
at KC
10.6
11
Greg Olsen
CAR
at TB
10.6
12
Brandon Pettigrew
DET
vs. STL
11.0
13
Jared Cook
TEN
vs. NE
12.6
14
Jermaine Gresham
CIN
at BAL
14.2
15
Jacob Tamme
DEN
vs. PIT
15.2
16
Owen Daniels
HOU
vs. MIA
15.6
17
Brent Celek
PHI
at CLE
16.2
18
Lance Kendricks
STL
at DET
18.0
19
Heath Miller
PIT
at DEN
19.6
20
Dwayne Allen
IND
at CHI
20.8
21
Martellus Bennett
NYG
vs. DAL
22.6
22
Colby Fleener
IND
at CHI
22.6
23
Marcedes Lewis
JAC
at MIN
23.2
24
Anthony Fasano
MIA
at HOU
23.8
25
Jason Witten
DAL
at NYG
25.0
26
Ben Watson
CLE
vs. PHI
25.6
27
Scott Chandler
BUF
at NYJ
26.2
28
Dennis Pitta
BAL
vs. CIN
26.8
29
Kevin Boss
KC
vs. ATL
27.0
30
Tony Moeaki
KC
vs. ATL
27.4
31
Kellen Davis
CHI
vs. IND
28.4
Start: Kyle Rudolph. This Vikings second-year tight end is one of my favorite breakout candidates of the year. Fully recovered from an injury that dogged him all of last year and part of his final college season, Rudolph has developed good chemistry with Christian Ponder. The absence of Jerome Simpson will also help Rudolph immediately establish himself as an under-the-radar TE1 option moving forward.
Bench: Jacob Tamme. His familiarity with Peyton Manning led to Tamme shooting up draft boards throughout August, but he could very well split targets evenly with Joel Dreessen this year. We still like Tamme as the better option, but not enough to rely on him as a starter until we see how things develop in Denver.
Rank
Team Defense
Team
Opp
Average
1
Texans
HOU
vs. MIA
2.2
2
Bears
CHI
vs. IND
3.8
3
Lions
DET
vs. STL
4.0
4
Giants
NYG
vs. DAL
4.4
5
Eagles
PHI
at CLE
6.2
6
49ers
SF
at GB
6.6
7
Seahawks
SEA
at ARI
8.2
8
Packers
GB
vs. SF
9.2
9
Bills
BUF
at NYJ
9.6
10
Ravens
BAL
vs. CIN
10.6
11
Patriots
NE
at TEN
11.0
12
Steelers
PIT
at DEN
11.2
13
Vikings
MIN
vs. JAC
12.0
14
Bengals
CIN
at BAL
12.0
15
Jets
NYJ
vs. BUF
13.6
16
Raiders
OAK
vs. SD
15.8
17
Falcons
ATL
at KC
16.8
18
Broncos
DEN
vs. PIT
17.4
19
Cowboys
DAL
at NYG
17.6
20
Saints
NO
vs. WAS
19.0
21
Buccaneers
TB
vs. CAR
19.8
22
Jaguars
JAC
at MIN
20.2
23
Cardinals
ARI
vs. SEA
21.2
24
Chargers
SD
at OAK
21.6
25
Panthers
CAR
at TB
21.8
26
Chiefs
KC
vs. ATL
26.4
27
Dolphins
MIA
at HOU
28.0
28
Colts
IND
at CHI
29.0
29
Redskins
WAS
at NO
29.0
30
Titans
TEN
vs. NE
29.2
31
Rams
STL
at DET
29.4
32
Browns
CLE
vs. PHI
30.4
Start: Buffalo Bills. The addition of Mario Williams makes this front seven an imposing bunch, while Stephen Gilmore gives the secondary an immediate talent boost. It’ll be hard for even great offenses to have regular success against this defensive unit, and the Jets offense is most certainly not great. Give the Bills multiple sacks and multiple turnovers this week.
Sit: Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have a rough task ahead of them in Week 1, taking on a Giants offense that has to be feeling a ton of disrespect after winning a Super Bowl and then being rewarded with 24-hour Tebow News Network coverage. They’ll take it all out at home on the Cowboys, who should struggle keeping up with all the weapons the Giants have to offer.
Rank
Kickers
Team
Opp
Average
1
David Akers
SF
at GB
1.6
2
Sebastian Janikowski
OAK
vs. SD
1.8
3
Jason Hanson
DET
vs. STL
4.6
4
Garrett Hartley
NO
vs. WAS
4.6
5
Robbie Gould
CHI
vs. IND
6.0
6
Alex Henery
PHI
at CLE
6.0
7
Stephen Gostkowski
NE
at TEN
6.2
8
Mason Crosby
GB
vs. SF
8.6
9
Dan Bailey
DAL
at NYG
10.2
10
Nate Kaeding
SD
at OAK
10.4
11
Matt Prater
DEN
vs. PIT
11.2
12
Matt Bryant
ATL
at KC
13.2
13
Lawrence Tynes
NYG
vs. DAL
13.4
14
Shayne Graham
HOU
vs. MIA
15.2
15
Dan Carpenter
MIA
at HOU
16.0
16
Mike Nugent
CIN
at BAL
17.0
17
Rob Bironas
TEN
vs. NE
17.2
18
Shaun Suisham
PIT
at DEN
17.2
19
Justin Medlock
CAR
at TB
20.2
20
Justin Tucker
BAL
vs. CIN
20.6
21
Steven Hauschka
SEA
at ARI
21.0
22
Rian Lindell
BUF
at NYJ
21.6
23
Greg Zuerlein
STL
at DET
21.6
24
Nick Folk
NYJ
vs. BUF
22.0
25
Jay Feely
ARI
vs. SEA
23.4
26
Connor Barth
TB
vs. CAR
25.4
27
Ryan Succop
KC
vs. ATL
26.4
28
Billy Cundiff
WAS
at NO
26.6
29
Josh Scobee
JAC
at MIN
27.4
30
Adam Vinatieri
IND
at CHI
29.0
31
Blair Walsh
MIN
vs. JAC
30.4
32
Phil Dawson
CLE
vs. PHI
32.0
Start: A kicker. If you did the smart thing during an early draft and passed on drafting a kicker in favor of picking up a wild card at the RB position, don’t forget to cut someone on your team and grab a kicker before it’s too late. We’ve seen in the past that kicker points are hard to predict — turn this list upside down and you might have just as good a shot at finding a good one …
Sit: Phil Dawson. Except for Dawson. The Eagles gave up the fewest points to kickers last season, and the defense has improved immensely, both at the LB position and by finally treating Nnamdi Asomugha like Nnamdi Asomugha and not Charles Woodson. If Trent Richardson can’t play or is limited, this offense doesn’t have a prayer at moving the ball, which could limit Dawson to four or five points at best. R.J. White is the head editor at the Cafe and contributes to CBSSports.com’s MLB Rumors blog. He has previously written for FanHouse, Razzball and FanDuel. Catch up with him in the forums under the name daullaz. Follow him on Twitter; don’t follow him in real life.
The drafts are finally done, the rosters have been set, and it’s time to play that first game of the fantasy football season. I am not going to do a waiver wire article this week, because most people are not going to need to hit the waiver wire hard before the start of the season. If you do have a waiver wire question, feel free to ask in the comment section of this article. We will have a Waiver Wire and Start/Sit Article every week beginning in Week 2.
For those of you that are just returning to the website, it has a much different look than it did last year. However, the articles are going to work the same. I am going to pick several players to start and sit each week and will have a comment section where I answer questions. I am not going to waste your time telling you to start Philadelphia Eagles RB LeSean McCoy or sit New England Patriots TE Visanthe Shiancoe. The players I will try to pick to start or sit are going to be players that are RB2 or WR3 quality.
So you know what to expect for Q&A, here’s how everything will work this season. I will make every effort I can to have a question answered in 24 hours. Waiver Wire I will try to answer more quickly, because I know that you need quick advice when deciding to keep or release players. Please choose to leave comments and questions in the article that best suits your question and avoid leaving questions in last week’s article, as doing so will give you a quicker answer. We will have the new Waiver Wire Article up at noon (Central Time) on Mondays, the Start/Sit Article and Weekly Rankings up at noon on Tuesdays, and the Weekly Pick’em up at noon on Wednesdays. That said, please contact us if you have any questions about article schedules and Q&A. Now on with the show!
Here are my recommendations for Week 1. Good luck to everyone this season, I hope everyone starts the season on a solid note, unless you are playing against me.
Start of the Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Doug Martin – The Carolina Panthers were one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last year. They allowed 1,952 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns to running backs. They also allowed 88 receptions for 782 yards and eight receiving touchdowns to running backs. While they did add LB Luke Kuechly in the draft and MLB Jon Beason is returning from injury; I still think the Panthers have a defense that will be vulnerable to stopping the run.
Enter Doug Martin, who is the top back on the Buccaneers depth chart and is going to be playing in an offense that would love nothing more than to feature the run. They also want to throw to him out of the backfield. I could easily see 120 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. He should warrant a RB1 ranking in the first game of the season.
Other Players to Start
Detroit Lions RB Kevin Smith – I think you start him while you can, because he could be hurt in a couple weeks. The Lions seem to be very good at finding injury prone running backs. However, the Rams are the 28th ranked fantasy running back defense from last year and Smith will be at home. I do not have faith in him as a viable fantasy running back for the season, but I love his opening week match-up and think he is a viable RB2 against the Rams rebuilding effort on defense.Â
Tennessee Titans QB Jake Locker – The Titans open the season at home and while their opponent is the defending AFC Champion New England Patriots, the Patriots allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks of any defense in 2011. The Patriots did add several rookies and free agents in an attempt to upgrade the defense, but it is still a work in progress. I may change this recommendation if WR Kenny Britt is suspended for the first week of the season, but as of the date of publishing this article Britt appears to have a good chance to play in this game. Even if he does not, they have a number of other good targets to rely upon. Locker is a QB2 with upside playing the Patriots at home.
San Francisco 49ers QB Alex Smith – He is not the flashiest fantasy quarterback, but consider his Week 1 opponent, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers were 31st against fantasy quarterbacks, 31st against fantasy tight ends and 31st against fantasy wide receivers. If Smith is going to have a solid season, he needs to put up numbers against a rebuilding Packers Defense. I think Smith is a solid QB2 this week with upside. It is a tremendous match-up that warrants consideration to start him.
We like Blackmon’s matchup against the Minnesota secondary.
(source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/xtrah/6183913459)
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Justin Blackmon – Blackmon had a rocky start to his NFL career with two DUI arrests, but in about five quarters of preseason games, he has tallied eight receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown. He looks entrenched as the Jaguars top receiver, playing in Minnesota against last years 29th ranked fantasy receiver defense. The Vikings gave up 2,834 yards and 22 receiving touchdowns to fantasy receivers last season. Blackmon is a sneaky WR3 this week in a favorable match-up against the Vikings weak secondary.
San Diego Chargers WR Malcom Floyd – It is going to take a while to see which Chargers receiver emerges as the favorite target in the Chargers vertical passing offense. My prediction is it ends up being WR Robert Meachem, but Floyd has the inside track to start the season, because he has played with QB Philip Rivers longer. WR Eddie Royal could also emerge from the slot position. The Chargers should have a big passing day to open the season; the Oakland Raiders were 30th in the NFL last year against fantasy receivers, surrendering 2,839 yards and 21 receiving touchdowns. Rivers should be able to attack this secondary with his wide receivers. Floyd would be the favorite of the three to emerge; I think he has WR2 to WR3 value this week.
Minnesota Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph – Rudolph is a TE2 with sneaky upside this year as the top tight end in the Minnesota Vikings offense. The Jacksonville Jaguars were just 29th against tight ends last year, giving up an average of 9.0 points per game to tight ends. I think Rudolph could be a good candidate to break 50 yards receiving and score a touchdown. He is not an elite tight end, but could have an impressive opening to the regular season.
New York Giants TE Martellus Bennett – The Giants do not feature the tight end much with their impressive wide receiver talent, but Bennett was a talented player that never received a shot playing behind veteran Dallas Cowboys TE Jason Witten. Bennett faces his old team, which was 27th against tight ends, allowing 8.5 points per game to tight ends. Bennett will have revenge on his mind and has a favorable matchup to have a solid fantasy debut for the Giants.
Sit of the Week
Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning – The NFL Schedule did no favor for Manning in his first game back from four neck surgeries. The future Hall of Famer begins his comeback at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers allowed only 13.9 points per game to fantasy quarterbacks last season. It was the stingiest fantasy quarterback defense in the NFL.
We said what? Yes, it might be a good idea to sit Manning week 1.
(http://www.flickr.com/photos/denverjeffrey/7736934858)
I like what I have seen from Manning and while any player can suffer a season ending injury on any play, he has shown enough that I think he is capable of making it through a NFL season and putting up big numbers. This is not the week to start him though, I expect him to put up mid to low QB2 type numbers. You will have better options in the first week of the season.
Other Players to Sit
Cincinnati Bengals QB Andy Dalton – Dalton opens his season against the Baltimore Ravens. He played them twice last season and had mixed success. He did throw for 373 yards in the first meeting, but had only one touchdown and three picks. In the rematch, he had just 232 yards passing with no touchdowns and no picks. He did not top a 70.0 QB rating in either game. I would look elsewhere than Dalton playing Baltimore on the road to open the season.
Green Bay Packers RB Cedric Benson – Benson looks to have secured the starting job and could be a good flex play this season in the right match-up. This is not the right match-up, the 49ers allowed only 1,027 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to running backs last year. They also allowed 78 receptions for only 612 yards receiving and one receiving touchdown. Their 11.4 fantasy points allowed per game to fantasy running backs was the lowest in the NFL, 2.6 points per game ahead of the Houston Texans. Sell Benson having any impact in his Packer debut.
Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson – Peterson is coming off a major knee injury and has seen no game action in the preseason. He is likely to earn the start, but even if he does, the Jacksonville Jaguars were a respectable 10th against fantasy running backs last year, allowing only 16.7 points to fantasy running backs. I would sell on starting Peterson until we see how many carries he receives and how he looks cutting on his surgically repaired knee. I think he has RB1 potential this year, but starts the season slow coming back from last season’s knee injury.
New England Patriots WR Brandon Lloyd – The Tennessee Titans were a very underrated secondary last year, allowing the fourth fewest points to fantasy receivers with just 17.6 points per game. They also had a terrible tight end defense, ranking 24th with 8.2 points allowed to fantasy tight ends per game. I think the Patriots expose the tight end match-up and stay away from the receivers, especially Lloyd on the deep routes. Lloyd will have WR2 value this year, but probably not in this game.
New York Jets WR Santonio Holmes – The New York Jets have not been able to score an offensive touchdown this preseason and they open up against a Bills defense that was 11th against fantasy receivers last year. Keep in mind, the Bills added LB Mario Williams and rookie CB Stephon Gillmore has been very impressive in preseason. I am selling the Jets scoring a touchdown in this game and I am selling Holmes having a meaningful impact in a season where he needs to redeem himself. He may have WR3 to WR4 value at times this year, but I do not expect to see it in this game.
Detroit Lions TE Brandon Pettigrew – The St. Louis Rams allowed just 3.8 points to tight ends last year, which was tops in the NFL. That was 1.4 points better than the second best team, the Baltimore Ravens. Pettigrew has mid to low TE2 value in this tough match-up.
Cincinnati Bengals TE Jermaine Gresham – Speaking of the Baltimore Ravens, they open up against the Bengals potential breakout tight end. I would stay clear of Gresham on the road playing against the Baltimore Defense. I could see him as a low TE1 to high TE2, but not in this game.
Tom Brady has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 32-straight games. With one more TD pass he will pass John Elway (300) for the 5th most passing scores in league history. The last three times that he has faced the Titans he’s thrown for 824 yards, eight scores and nary an interception.
Ronnie Brown should handle the majority of touches against the Raiders with Ryan Mathews on the shelf. It’s not like you should expect Brown to be a top-10 runner in Week 1, but he does have a nice career track record against the Silver and Black (in four career games he has averaged 94.5 yards a game).
Reggie Bush led the NFL in rushing yards last September and he finished the year with 4-straight games of at least 100 yards rushing. In two career games against the Texans he has carried the ball 21 times for 52 yards though he has caught 13 balls for 73 yards. Daniel Thomas had a lot more success against the Texans with a career best 107 yards on the ground in his last meeting against the Texans.
Jairus Byrd, a safety for the Bills, has four interceptions in six games against the Jets. With Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow throwing the pigskin, that number could grow in Week 1.
Matt Cassel is 10-4 in his career against NFC opponents. In those 14 games he has passed for 3,048 yards, 23 scores and just nine interceptions. He faces the Falcons in Week 1.
Jamaal Charles is averaging 6.1 yards per carry during his NFL career. With one more carry, he has 499, he will have the fifth best mark in the history of football (Michael Vick leads the way at 7.2 but Charles would be #1 amongst running backs).
Andy Dalton shredded the Ravens for a career best 373 yards and three scores in Week 11 last year. He completed only 22 of 44 passes for 232 yards and no scores against the Ravens in Week 17.
Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 264 yards and three scores the last time that he faced the Jets. In addition, he tore up the vaunted Jets’ pass defense for five scores and just one interception last season.
Antonio Gates has success against everyone. The Raiders are certainly not immune to his talents as he has caught 10 touchdown passes in 18 career games.
BenJarvus Green Ellis has scored 24 rushing touchdowns since the start of 2010. Only one other running back has more – Arian Foster with 26. With Bernard Scott out of action for Week 1, look for BJGE to try his darnedest against a Ravens squad that is traditionally very difficult to run on (the Ravens were at the top of the AFC last year allowing just 92.6 yards per game on the ground as they allowed 10 rushing scores).
Darrius Heyward-Bey caught a career best nine passes the last time that he faced the Chargers.
Santonio Holmes had a down season last year but he did tie his career best with eight touchdowns. In Week 1 he will be aiming for a 4th straight game against the Bills with a touchdown.
Andre Johnson just kills the Dolphins. In five games against the Fish he’s gone hog wild for four scores and an average of 104 yards per game. He appears to be over the leg woes that limited him this preseason.
Chris Johnson has faced the Patriots one time in his career. He ran for 128 yards on 17 carries.
Stevie Johnson is one of the few receivers in football who you can confidently start against Darelle Revis. In two outings against the Jets last year he caught 11 balls for 159 yards an a score. He says his groin is 90 percent, and he should be good to go for Week 1.
For his career Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Rashad Jennings, who will get the start and the majority of touches in Week 1, has averaged 5.4 yards per carry in his career.
Dustin Keller isn’t 100 percent physically right now but he’s had two games against the Bills in his career in which he has scored twice (10/3/10 and 11/27/11).
Greg Little caught 61 passes last season, 2nd most in Browns history for a rookie wideout (Kevin Johnson had 66 in 1999). He’ll enter the 2012 as the Browns top option in the passing attack.
Jake Locker will make his first career start in Week 1. He will be facing a Patriots team that scores to often that teams are often forced to pass, heavily, to try and catch up. Last year the Pats defense was 2nd worst in the NFL allowing 294 yards passing a game. They also permitted 26 passing scores.
Peyton Manning will be wearing a Broncos jersey for the first time, but he’s faced the Steelers three times in his career (how is it only three times? Shocked it’s so low). In those three games he’s averaged 263 yards and two scores per contest.
Darren McFadden has posted a 5.5 yard per carry mark against the AFC West in his career. Against the Chargers that numbers is just 4.2 yards in four games.
Carson Palmer has made five career starts against San Diego. His per game average is 348 yards and 2.6 touchdown passes.
Ed Reed has intercepted nine passes against the Bengals, the most he has against any one team in his illustrious career.
Ben Roethlisberger really likes to throw the ball in Denver. In his last two starts there he has completed 70.3 percent of his passes for 523 yards and seven touchdowns. Seven. We’ll overlook the three interceptions if he passes at that rate again, right?
Mark Sanchez has been effective the last two times he has faced the Jets. He may have only thrown for 410 yards in those two games but he also has five passing scores an a 91.4 QB Rating.
Matt Schaub is 4-0 in his career against the Dolphins. Unfortunately he’s only thrown for five scores despite averaging an impressive 297 yards passing per contest. The last time he faced them he threw for 230 yards and two scores.
Torrey Smith had 165 receiving yards against the Bengals on November 11th last season, the most of any game in his young career.
Demaryius Thomas has fond memories of the Steelers. In the playoffs last season he not only scored a game winning 80 yard touchdown in overtime for the Broncos, he also caught three other passes 124 yards as well in that contest.
There is some concern that Mike Wallace might start out slowly after he held out for the majority of the preseason. Perhaps he’ll be able to get off to a quick start since he will be facing a Broncos club that he caught four balls for 69 yards and a score in his only career matchup against them.
Wes Welker had 10 receptions for 150 yards and two scores in his last outing against the Titans. He needs four receptions to reach 558 for his career which would be a new Patriots record (Troy Brown had 557).
RANDOM START OF THE WEEK
(That one player you would never consider starting but for some reason he might be worth a look if you’re desperate.)
Heath Miller has faced the Broncos three times in his career catching 13 passes for two scores if you are already desperate at the tight end position. You also read above just how impressive that Big Ben has been throwing the ball in Denver, so Miller is the choice here. Remember what this section is for before you go and start thinking that I’m telling you to bench Vernon Davis to start Miller (I’m not saying that). I’m merely saying that if you are looking for a hail mary play at tight end that Miller might be a solid option.
FUN FACT
Everyone is ga-ga over quarterbacks this season, but remember this. IN THE HISTORY OF THE NFL only five quarterbacks have ever thrown for 4,500 yards in back-to-back seasons: Philip Rivers (2010-11), Dan Fouts (1980-81), Warren Moon (1990-91), Peyton Manning (2009-10) and Drew Brees (2010-11).
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87, Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT. Ray’s analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Jared Allen has 20.5 sacks in his last 14 games and 32 in his past 25 contests. He also has 105 sacks since the start of the 2004 season, the highest total in football.
Cliff Avril led the Lions with 11 sacks last season. He also led the NFC with six forced fumbles. In two career outings against the Rams he has no sacks and no forced fumbles.
Cedric Benson is one of only five NFL runners who has run for 1,000 yards each of the past three seasons. This week he faces a 49ers defense that led the NFL last season allowing just 77.3 yards per game on the ground. The Niners also allowed three rushing scores all season. The Bucs had an NFL worst 26 rushing scores allowed in 2011.
Most seem to have forgotten that Drew Brees set NFL records for yardage (5.476) and 300-yard games (13) last season. He also set NFL records for completions (468) and completion percentage (71.2). Oddly, the Redskins seem to he his Kryptonite. In four career matchups he has thrown for only three touchdowns while tossing seven inceptions. However, in the last meeting he turned all that around and threw for 419 yards and two touchdowns.
Calais Campbell has 4.5 sacks the last four times that he has faced the Seahawks.
Chris Clemons of the Seahawks has 11 sacks in his last 15 games. In six career games against the Cardinals he’s picked up four sacks while forcing a fumble.
Marques Colston finished last season on a roll with an average of 105.5 yards a game over his last four contests while scoring five times. His worst effort in that stretch was seven catches for 81 yards. In his last game against the ‘Skins he had a TD but he caught only two passes for 46 yards.
Vernon Davis had four catches for 126 yards an a touchdown in his last game against the Packers. In three career matchups he has 308 yards and three scores.
Larry Fitzgerald has played one full season against the Seahawks – 16 games. In that time all he has done is catch 102 passes for 1,371 yards and 10 touchdowns. Ho hum.
Matt Forte is the only player in league history with at least 900 yards rushing and 400 yards receiving in each of his first four seasons. He’s also the only player in league history with at least 900 yards rushing and 50 receptions in each of his first four seasons.
Josh Freeman has faced the Panthers four times in his career and thrown just five touchdown passes. Even worse, he’s also tossed six interceptions while losing two fumbles in the matchup.
Tony Gonzalez has never faced the Chiefs in his career. Of course, that’s because he played for the club from Kansas City for 12 seasons.
Steven Jackson has rushed for 1,000 yards in seven straight seasons. That marks him as one of only seven runners in league history to attain that level. Since the start of the 2006 season he leads the NFL with an average of 114.7 yards from scrimmage (minimum 60 games played). In three career games against the Lions he has scored twice while running for 344 yards and catching 10 passes for 94 yards. That’s an average of 146 yards from scrimmage per game.
Chris Long has 10 sacks in his last 10 games. In seven of those 10 games he’s actually picked up a sack. In two games against the Lions Long has one sack and six tackles.
Brandon Marshall is going for a sixth straight season of 1,000 yards. He caught 206 passes for 2,590 yards in 2007-08 when he was working with Jay Cutler, who is now his QB once again in Chicago. In two career games against the Colts Marshall has 24 receptions for 223 yards and three scores.
LeSean McCoy led the NFL last season with 20 touchdowns (17 rushing, three receiving) and 102 first downs. He’s also the only back in the NFC with 1,000 rushing yards and 45 receptions each of the last two seasons.
Santana Moss is one of just four players in the league who have caught 45 balls for at least 500 yards in each of the past nine seasons. Still, with a dwindling role, it would be shocking if he matched his per game performance against the Saints of 89.7 yards and 0.67 scores (three games).
Cam Newton lit up the Bucs last year in two games posting a 130.9 QB rating as he produced eight, eight, scores (four passing and four rushing).
Christian Ponder has made two starts against AFC clubs in his young career. Facing the Jaguars this weekend he will try to build on a ledger that has seem him record 592 yards and five touchdowns.
Aaron Rodgers has been predictably terrific against the Niners in his career. In two games he has thrown for five scores without an interception on his way to a 118.9 rating.
Evan Royster ran for 132 and 113 yards the last two weeks of the 2011 season. Alfred Morris was second in the NFC with 195 yards rushing in the preseason. Roy Helu is the most talented runner of the trio, and he caught 49 passes while rushing for 640 yards in his rookie season. Good luck figuring out this three-headed monster.
When Matt Ryan has a 100 QB rating the Falcons are undefeated (23-0). He’s also won 43 games as a starting QB, the second most by a QB in his first four seasons since 1950. In his one outing against the Chiefs Ryan posted a QB Rating of 120.6.
John Skelton went 5-2 as a starter last season for the Cardinals. He’s also led six game winning drives in the fourth quarter and OT in his last 10 games. In his one outing against the Seahawks he threw for 271 yards, one score and one interception.
Alex Smith has posted a QB rating of 100.0 ten times in his career and the Niners have won each of those 10 contests. In two regular season meetings with the Packers he has a 69.8 QB Rating.
Matthew Stafford threw for 5,038 yards and 41 scores last season, only the third time in league history a QB has reached both those marks. He also became the 2nd youngest QB ever to thrown for 4,000 yards with 30 scores in a season (Dan Marino). He had none of that success in his lone matchup with the Rams when he threw for just 168 yards, no score, and one interception.
Michael Vick should be nearly 100 percent in Week 1 against the Browns. In his two outings against them in his career he has not performed well, not even close. Vick has completed just 41.3 percent of his passes for two scores while he has thrown three interceptions and lost a fumble.
DeAngelo Williams has run for eight scores in 10 games against the Bucs. He also scored two times in their last matchup, and the three times that he has carried the ball at least 19 times against the Buccaneers he’s averaged 153 yards a game.
Russell Wilson will start his first NFL game in Week 1. He set an NCAA-FBS record by throwing 379 straight passes without being picked-off. I wonder how many passes he will throw in the NFL before his first turnover through the air?
RANDOM START OF THE WEEK
(That one player you would never consider starting but for some reason he might be worth a look if you’re desperate.)
Lance Mo0re, WR, Saints
Adrian Arrington is dealing with a knee issue. Marques Colston is dealing with a foot issue. Darren Sproles has been slowed this preseason with a knee issue. Moore is player that Drew Brees trusts. He’s also had a bushel of success against the Redskins in his career: one game, one catch, seven yards. See why it makes so much sense… because it doesn’t make sense.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87, Monday through Thursday at 7 PM EDT and Friday’s at 9 PM EDT. Ray’s analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.