Today I’ll review the glamor position of football, the quarterback. I’ll point out some statistical oddities, some interesting tidbits, an in the process hopefully delineate some interesting bits of data that make you rethink some of your suppositions about the signal callers.
MICHAEL VICK OR TIM TEBOW?
On the surface this seems like a patently stupid comparison to draw. Vick was insanely good last year, a fact I pointed out in Who is the Real Michael Vick? Given how amazingly productive that Vick was last year, and the fact that Tebow isn’t even certain to open the year as the Broncos starting quarterback it’s fair to ponder â have I simply lost my mind? I haven’t, I don’t think, so hear me out.
Current ADP data is exceedingly hard to come by given the lockout and all that mess, but according to Fantasy Football Calculator, in 12 teams PPR leagues, Vick is being drafted 11th overall as everyone is clearly buying into his effort from last season (I’m not one of them. Read my piece above for some thoughts on why I’m running counter to the prevailing wisdom with the Eagles’ signal caller). At the other end of the spectrum is Tebow’s and his ADP which is in the 13th round. Clearly no one is believing in him, largely because of the fact that we don’t even know if he will open the season under center for the Broncos. This info further solidifies your thoughts that I’m crazy, doesn’t it? Let me point out three facts before you make up your mind on this matter.
(1) Per Game averages.
Vick appeared in just 12 games last season as injuries limited his time on the field. Tebow touched the ball in just seven games, though the last three weeks he was heavily involved for the Broncos. Let’s compare Vick’s numbers to what Tebow did over the final three weeks (average per game).
Vick: 252 yards, 1.75 TDs passing. 47 yards, 0.75 TDs rushing per game.
Tebow: 217 yards, 1.33 TDs passing. 66 yards, 1.0 TDs rushing per game.
It’s a lot closer than you thought isn’t it? And that leads right into point #2…
(2)Final three weeks of the 2010 season.
In the SiriusXM Fantasy Football Experts League, which included all the radio hosts from the station, Tim Tebow was the most productive player in the NFL over the final three weeks of the season (the league was a standard PPR setup, and oh, by the way, yours truly emerged as the champion). Tebow averaged 27.8 points per game over that span. On the year Vick average 29.4 points per game.
Is Tebow going to be better than Vick? That’s highly improbable. Could be bring a better Return on Investment? That seems probable given that his ADP is 12 rounds later than Vick. If Tebow earns the starting nod with the Broncos, I find it hard to believe that he won’t be the more effective performer based on your price to acquire him.
Tom Brady led the NFL with a 111.0 QB Rating. That was just the second time he had ever been over 100.0. Obviously the other time was in 2007 when he tossed 50 scores, a single season record. Oddly, though Brady had a remarkable season that included only four interceptions and the second best TD mark of his career (36), he failed to pass for 4,000 yards, a total he has reached three times previously. He finished the year with 3,900 yards passing. He also rushed 31 times for 30 yards. Stick to passing the ball Tom.
Peyton Manning led the NFL with 450 completions (two more than Drew Brees). It sucks to be Brees given that he completed the second most passes in the history of the game for a single season yet still finished second in the league in 2010 in that category. Manning and Brees are the only two quarterbacks to have ever completed 420 passes in a season with Brees also owning the third (440) and 5th best (413) completion efforts in the history of football. As for Manning, last season was the first time he reached the magic 400 level, hardly a surprise given that there have only been eight such seasons in the history of the game. Since we’re discussing this duo, why not also point out that they attempted the second (Manning 679) and third (Brees – 658) most passes in the history of the league for a single season. Drew Bledsoe fired 691 passes in 1994.
No quarterback dossed for 4,800 yards (an average of 300 per game). Three did top 4,500 yards though; Philip Rivers (4,710), Peyton Manning (4,700) and Brees (4,620). Oddly though, there were only two other passers who chucked the pigskin for 4,000 yards in Matt Schaub (4,370) and Eli Manning (4,000). To compare, that total of five quarterbacks tossing for 4,000 is a low given the numbers put up in the recent past.
Five QBs tossed at least 30 scores in 2010.
36 â Brady
33 â Brees, Peyton Manning
31 â Eli Manning
30 â Philip Rivers
How does that total of five stack up with the recent past?
Everyone knows that Vick led all signal callers with 676 yards rushing. Some know that Josh Freeman was second with 364 rushing yards. Few, if any, know that Drew Brees rushed the ball 18 times last year with the result being (-3) yards. That’s the same total as Sage Rosenfels, though he only ran the ball three times. They were both bettered, or worsened (is that a word?), but Brian Hoyer who ran 10 times for a (-8) yards.
For those of you who are in leagues that penalize for fumbles, keep the following in mind.
There were four men who fumbled the ball at least 10 times last year.
11- David Garrard, Vick
10 â Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler
Cutler lost six of those fumbles, Garrard four, Vick three and somehow McNabb only turned the ball over one time on a fumble despite the fact that he coughed up the ball 10 times. The player with the most fumbles who didn’t lose one was Troy Smith who fumbled six times but failed to turn the pigskin over.
And finally, do you know how many quarterbacks took every snap for their team last year? Give up? The answer is a lonely group of three: Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco and… Sam Bradford.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Tags: AFC, Fantasy Football, NFC, NFL