Thanksgiving’s such a great holiday. I don’t care for the part where Native Americans got killed, but I do love turkey and all the side dishes that come with it. If we had to do a draft of Thanksgiving foods, I think stuffing or cranberry sauce would be my first pick. Sorry turkey, but cranberry sauce and stuffing don’t take a million hours to cook. One of my draft factors is development time.
I also have good news and bad news. Good news: no more bye weeks! Bad news: great fantasy players seem to be getting hurt now. I’ve always tried to cater my picks to the major injuries of the past week, but pickings are slim for QBs since there are only 32 of them and most of the good ones are due to drafts or injury. Bear with me.
Alright, that’s all I got. If you have any questions you want answered (or anything really), email me at skalaf21@gmail.com, or ask in the comments section below.
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PLUGS – These are players that have a favorable matchup this week and would be available in the majority of leagues. There could be injuries or a player has a really poor matchup this Sunday. These plugs could help fill that scoring void. Matt Moore, QB (MIA)- The Dolphins will play the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and this matchup will certainly be a [Thanksgiving pun]! Seriously though, Moore’s been playing rather well lately, and the Cowboys’ secondary looks better than they really are. Actually, they gave up a game-tying drive to Rex Grossman last Sunday. They are just not good.
Jabar Gaffney, WR, (WAS)- It’s hard to trust Rex Grossman, but you can trust Gaffney. The Seahawks are weaker against the pass than the run, and there are limited WR options for the Redskins. Gaffney has shown that he’s the primary guy with the absence of Santana Moss. Last Sunday, Gaffney was targeted 10 times for 7 receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown.
Carolina DEF- Normally I would never recommend them, but they’re going up against the Colts. I’m going to keep doing this until I’m wrong.
INVESTMENTS- If you have a free roster spot and want to bolster your depth, these players look like they could break out in a couple weeks. When they do, the other teams in your league will be scrambling to have them, but due to foresight (and some luck), you’ll be the one with them already on your bench. Caleb Hanie, QB (CHI)- With Jay Cutler out for the remainder of the regular season with a broken thumb, Hanie’s now in line to get the starting QB job for the Bears. Here’s the good news, though: the rest of Chicago’s schedule really isn’t that bad for the team or for Hanie. The remaining opponents for the Bears are: OAK, KC, DEN, SEA, GB and MIN. Besides the Packers, those games are winnable. Matt Forte will probably see even more time than he does already, and that could mean easy yardage for Hanie with short passes that have major YAC. Even the Green Bay matchup is favorable, since the Packers have one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Hanie should certainly be considered and watched this coming week, because with the matchups handed to him, he could put up nice numbers.
Kevin Smith, RB (DET)- With his chance, Smith absolutely demolished the Panthers with 16 touches for 140 yards and two touchdowns. He was also a receiving threat who caught four receptions for 61 yards and a score. It’s worth picking him up on his potential alone, since Jahvid Best’s return is cloudy and Maurice Morris is too old to be effective. Get him ASAP.
Joe McKnight, RB (NYJ)- By replacing an injured LaDainian Tomlinson , McKnight gave himself a little boost in the depth chart. He led running backs with 16 touches for 59 yards and also had six catches for 62 yards. McKnight also lost a fumble, but discounting that, he still had a game worth noticing. Although Shonn Greene (who was injured in the game against the Broncos) and Tomlinson say they will both be ready for the game against Buffalo this week, it’s still worth watching McKnight to see if he gets any continued attention. The rushing game is weak, and Sanchez isn’t a QB that can take the full burden of leading the offense. The Jets are not an offense to ignore the run anyway, so keep an eye out to see if McKnight’s allowed some more involvement.
Start--Carson Palmer, QB (OAK)–Palmer is coming off of a two touchdown performance last Thursday and will need to pass the ball in this game if the Raiders want to win. The Vikings are giving up the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season, which makes Palmer a must-start this week.
Sit–Michael Bush, RB (OAK)–Bush had a huge game against the Chargers last week, but this week faces off against a rushing defense that has given up just five rushing touchdowns all season. I am not saying he won’t be used often in this game, but this game is going to be won through the air.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins–1:00 pm
Start–Reggie Bush, RB (MIA)–Bush has scored three touchdowns in the Dolphins last two games and will look to continue that trend this week against the Bills, who give up nine touchdowns on the ground this season. He will be splitting carries with teammate Daniel Thomas but should still get enough chances to be worth starting this week.
Sit–Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB (BUF)–Fitzpatrick has now thrown eight interceptions in his last four games and against the Dolphins defense that number could continue to climb. I don’t trust anyone outside of Fred Jackson in the Bills offense at this point so be sure to find a different option if possible.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens–1:00 pm
Start–Torrey Smith, WR (BAL)–With Leon Hall out for the season Smith should be able to get open and finish with a solid game. Even with Hall, the Bengals were giving up 17.1 yards per game to opposing wide receivers.
Sit–Andy Dalton, QB (CIN)–The Ravens defense will be out for blood this week after an embarrassing loss to the Seahawks. Go with a different option here.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns–1:00 pm
Start– Cleveland Browns Defense/Special Teams (CLE)–The Jaguars offense hasn’t been explosive all season and they should be able to stop their only stud in Maurice Jones-Drew. Go with the Browns if your defense is on a bye-week.
Sit–Mike Thomas, WR (JAC)–The Jaguars passing game hasn’t been anything special all season, which has devastated Thomas and his fantasy production. Go with a different option here.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins–1:00 pm
Start–Laurent Robinson, WR (DAL)–Robinson has scored four touchdowns in his last three games and as long as Miles Austin is sidelined he is going to continue to be a solid target for quarterback Tony Romo. Ride Robinson until he gives you a reason not to.
Sit–Felix Jones, RB (DAL)–It appears Jones will be able to play this week against the Redskins, but the Cowboys came out and said that DeMarco Murray is the No. 1 running back from here on out. So be sure to keep that in mind going forward.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers–1:00 pm
Start–Mike Williams, WR (TB)–Although Williams has been a major disappointment this season this week he faces off against the Packers who have the fifth-worst passing defense in the NFL. Williams should break out of his slump this week finding the end zone at least once in this matchup.
Sit–LeGarrette Blount, RB (TB)–The Packers defense has been solid against the run this season and they are going to force Josh Freeman to beat them through the air. Go with a different option in this matchup.
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions–1:00 pm
Start–Jonathan Stewart, RB (CAR)–It has been a crapshoot all season with Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, but this week Stewart should be a solid start against the Lions, who give up a lot to opposing running backs in the passing game. Expect him to get the majority of the carries for the Panthers this week making him worth a shot.
Sit–Nate Burleson, WR (DET)–Burleson has just one touchdown all season and seems to have taken the backseat to Titus Young. Go with a different option here.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers–4:05 pm
Start--Kendall Hunter, RB (SF)–With Frank Gore’s availability in jeopardy this week, Hunter may become a great start this week. If Gore is out, look for Hunter to have his best game of the season in a great matchup.
Sit–Chris Wells, RB (ARI)–The 49ers have given up just 500 yards and zero touchdowns on the ground all season and will be able to manhandle the Cardinals offensive line. Go with a different option if it is possible because this one is going to be ugly.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams–4:05 pm
Start–Marshawn Lynch, RB (SEA)–Lynch has now scored a touchdown in five straight games and this week should be no different facing the Rams who have given up almost 1,200 yards on the ground this season. Expect another big day from Lynch this week.
Sit–Sidney Rice, WR (SEA)–His status is in question for this week and there is a good chance he won’t be able to play this week. Be sure to monitor his status up until game time and think about starting him if he plays.
San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears–4:15 pm
Start–Earl Bennett, WR (CHI)–Bennett has 11 receptions in his last two games and has been the only consistent wide receiver on the Bears roster. This week the Bears face off against the Chargers who have been beatable through the air.
Sit–Ryan Mathews, RB (SD)–Mathews is supposedly 100 percent healthy, but he was last week too and only received six carries in the game. I just don’t trust Norv Turner and Mathews at this point of the season.
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons–4:15 pm
Start–Harry Douglas, WR (ATL)–With Julio Jones likely out, Douglas could be a great start opposite Roddy White. After Jones left the game with an injury last week Douglas recorded eight receptions for 133 yards. So this is lining up to be a good start for Douglas this week.
Sit–Tennessee Titans Defense/Special Teams (TEN)–The Falcons are coming off of a big loss to the Saints and will be ready for war, which is not a good sign for the Titans defense. Go with a different option here.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants–8:20 pm
Start–Brandon Jacobs, RB (NYG)–The Eagles defense has been better against the run, but the Giants and Jacobs will bring them back to earth. Expect a big game from Jacobs as the Giants try to bounce back from last week’s loss.
Sit–Michael Vick, QB (PHI)–Vick will likely be a game-time decision this week so do with a different option here.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots–8:30 pm
Start--Deion Branch, WR (NE)–Quietly Branch is having a solid fantasy season and besides Wes Welker is Tom Brady’s most reliable target. He has two touchdowns in his last three games and should continue that trend this week against the Chiefs.
Sit–Dwayne Bowe, WR (KC)–With Tyler Palko under center Bowe and his fantasy value definitely take a hit. Until Palko proves he can get him the ball, Bowe should be benched. Go with a different option here.
Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at matthewbeck@rotoinfo.com. Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information.
Coffin Corner: A look inside the numbers as you gear up for battles with clubs from the AFC.
BYE: Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
The Ravens are a stout defense, but Cedric Benson has had recent success against them with an average of 92 yards a game on the ground in their past four matchups.
Michael Bush is averaging 117.3 yards a game on the ground the past three weeks. The Vikings are the 11th easiest defense for runners to put points up against so it looks like a potential bonanza yet again with Darren McFadden highly unlikely to play.
Andre Carter had an amazing four sacks last week against the Jets. That gives him at least two sacks in three of his last four outings. This week he faces a Chiefs team that he had two sacks against in his last outing against them and he’ll be chasing a quarterback, Tyler Palko, who has thrown 13 passes in his NFL career. Warm up those IDP engines.
Andy Dalton is 4-1 on the road and has thrown for 10 scrores in those five games. It will be tough for him to throw for two scores this week against a Ravens club that has allowed only six passing scores this season. The Ravens are also the hardest team in fantasy for a quarterback to post points against.
Antonio Gates should have a day this week. The last time he faced the Bears he caught nine balls for 107 yards. The Bears are also the worst pass defense in the NFL in terms of fantasy points allowed to the tight end, and that includes seven scores in nine games.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis has scored in three of his four home games in 2011. However, he hasn’t scored since Week 5. Perhaps the Chiefs are the tonic he needs given that they have allowed nine rushing scores in nine games this season.
Shonn Greene is averaging 80.8 yards a game over the past four weeks, but he still has only two rushing scores on the season. He faces a Broncos team this week that is 13th in fantasy points allowed to the running back position.
Jermaine Gresham has caught three touchdowns in his last four outings. The Ravens are the the toughest defense in fantasy football for the tight end to post points against in the fantasy game, so the matchup isn’t gonna do Gresham any favors.
Santonio Holmes “broke out” for six catches and 93 yards in Week 10. In his previous three games he caught eight balls for 116 yards as the Jets seem to not understand that they need to get the ball into his hands. The Broncos have been repeatedly beaten this year through the air as they have allowed 18 scores in nine games, though Champ Bailey often does a great job against team’s top options.
Fred Jackson leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 1,309. He’s also averaging 103.2 yards a game on the ground when playing away from Buffalo. It’s a tough matchup this week though for Jackson since the Dolphins are allowing just 105.1 yards a game on the ground and just three rushing scores.
Chris Johnson enjoys facing the NFC. In 13 career games against the conference he’s averaged 108.1` yards a game on the ground. He’s coming off his best game of the season, a 130 yard effort, but he faces a Falcons club that has been holding opposing runners to 90.3 yards a game this season.
Maurice Jones-Drew has run for at least 80 yards in eight of his nine games this season. The last two games in which he’s faced the Browns he’s averaged 108 yards a game on the ground.
Dustin Keller has faced the Broncos twice in his career. In those two games he’s racked up 152 yards.
Brandon Marshall has absolutely killed it against the Bills the last two times he’s faced them. Killed it. Marshall has gone for at least 10 receptions and 100 yards the last two times he’s faced the Bills in a home game. The last two times he’s faced the Bills, regardless of location, he’s averaged 102 yards a game.
Dexter McCluster has had some success the past two weeks, even if it’s been limited by a smallish workload. He’s averaging 5.4 yards a carry the past two weeks (15 carries, 81 yards) as he’s caught seven passes. With a rookie under center this week, there has to be a chance that he is the recipient of a lot of dumpoffs this week, especially against a Patriots squad that is allowing the most passing yards a game in the league at 308.9 a game.
Colt McCoy has completed 65.4 percent of his passes in five career games in November. Unfortunately he’s only thrown for three scores in those five games. He faces a Jaguars club this week that is allowing only 189.3 yards a game through the air.
Willis McGahee isn’t at full strength, but he’s had a lot of success running the ball against the Jets in his career with five 100 yard outings in eight career match ups.
Ray Rice is averaging 118 yards from scrimmage in his last four match-ups with the Bengals. Coming off a down week in terms of touches, look for the Ravens to heavily feature Rice this weekend even in a tough match up with a Bengals squad that is allowing 86.8 yards a game on the ground, the best mark in the AFC.
Tim Tebow is the only quarterback in NFL history to have a touchdown pass an at least 25 yards rushing in each of his first seven starts.
Random Start of the Week
(That one player you would never consider starting but for some reason he might be worth a look if you’re desperate.)
Damian Williams had 107 yards last week, the highest total of his young career. He’s also scored in 2-straight weeks for the Titans. The Falcons have also permitted nine passing scores to be delivered to outsides this season while performing as the 12th easiest defense for opposing wide receivers to post points. Add that all up and Williams has to at least be on your WR3 radar for Week 11.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Throughout the first 10 weeks of the season there has been a diminutive variation of the top-five performers in each week. In fact, 18 times that player has been a quarterback as well as a running back, 10 times it has been a wide receiver, and 4 times it has been a defense/special teams. Not once has a kicker or tight end cracked the top-five barrier. Will this be the week that changes? Or will it be more of the same old? Let’s take a look.
Top 5 performers of week 11:
5. Fred Jackson- Back –to-back subpar performances shouldn’t worry owners out there. Actually, it hasn’t been Jackson that has been off, it has been Fitzpatrick who has been in a funk. Although that does affect how well Jackson does he did run for over 100 yards against a solid Cowboys defense, and over 80 yards against an experienced Jets defense. In addition, he is still catching balls out of that backfield and getting as many touches as usual. His week 11 opponent also happens to be the 2-7 Dolphins. Allowing more than 100 yards/game on the ground and over 360 yards/game overall, Jackson should go back to the numbers he was putting up in the beginning of the season. Also, if you are still concerned, here are some stats that should put you at ease. Jackson leads the league in rushing yards (917), is second in rushes over 20+ yards (10) and is fifth in rushing touchdowns (6).
4. Tom Brady- Last week versus the Jets put to rest any rumors of Brady falling off. 330 yards passing and three touchdowns against one of the most diabolical secondary’s in the league is a more than impressive performance. In addition, Brady’s stats speak for themselves, through 10 weeks Brady is second in the league in passing yards (3,032) and touchdown throws (23) and third in completion percentage (66.1%) and yards per attempt (8.42).
3. LeSean McCoy- No games this season in the single-digits, two games with 20+points and one game over 30 points mean that McCoy has had a very successful season thus far. With numbers like that, McCoy is the #1 RB in the league to this point. It is hard for him to be anything but #1 since he is second in the league in rushing yards (906), tied first in touchdowns (10) and tied for second with runs over 20+ with Fred Jackson (10). Wither this week vs. the Giants it is Vick or Young who starts, it is likely McCoy will get plenty of touches. In addition, the Giants currently have the 20th overall rush defense, allowing over 120 yards/game rushing.
2. Adrian Peterson- There is a reason AP has the nick-name All Day. It is because he just doesn’t stop, and is an absolute work-horse. Each and every time he touches the ball, AP is looking to knock over whomever is in his way, and reach the end zone. With a mentality like that, AP is currently 5th in the league in rushing yards (846), and tied for first in touchdowns (10). Currently the 4th overall RB in leagues, AP is facing an Oakland defense that is currently 25th in the league versus the rush, allowing more than 125 yards/game on the ground. Expect AP to exploit that and run all over them.
1. Aaron Rodgers- Any one surprised by this? Nobody is hotter right now than Rodgers. He has been on an absolute tear so far and manically picking apart any defense he has faced this season. Number one overall fantasy player through 10 weeks, period. Not once has he gone under 20 points in a game, has had one game with 30 points and another with 45. It seems that nobody can stop him, no one. That is why Rodgers currently is 4th in passing yards (2,869) 1st in touchdowns (28), 1st in INT thrown (3), 1st in QB rating (130.7) and completion percentage (72.7%). If Rodgers continues this he is on his way to break a number of records. His unfortunate adversary in week 11 is the Buccaneers who are 28th in passing yards allowed a game, allowing over 263 yards/game. Anticipate nothing but shear domination.
Already without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, Houston was dealt a devastating blow on Monday when it was revealed that Matt Schaub will likely miss the rest of the season with a foot injury.
It’s a real shame for Houston, who is currently in first place in the AFC and finally seemed to be showing the resiliency that has been noticeably missing for years. It’s also a real shame for all the fantasy owners who were relying on Schaub to propel them into the playoffs.
The buzz in fantasy circles seems to be that Schaub’s injury will make Arian Foster and Ben Tate even more valuable, the theory being that the Texans will allot more touches to their backs to keep Matt Leinart’s influence to a minimum.
I don’t doubt that Houston, who has more rushing attempts and yardage than any team in the league, will attempt to feed Foster and Tate the ball even more than they do already. I do, however, question how successful they will be.
For one thing, the ‘experts’ already know that the Texans will look to shift some of the offensive focus from the QB position to the RBs, so you’d better believe that coaches around the league are on to it as well. I expect defensive coordinators to gameplan accordingly, stacking the box mercilessly and essentially daring Matt Leinart to make plays downfield. I don’t want to take anything away from the Foster/Tate combo, but you have to attribute some of their success to Schaub’s ability to keep defenses honest. That advantage is gone now.
Also gone is the tremendous chemistry Schaub and Foster had built up in the passing game. Right now, Foster is second on the team in targets (45) and receiving yards (445). Who knows whether Leinart will be inclined – or able – to get Foster the ball that frequently.
If you play a 14-week season with two weeks of playoffs, Foster’s postseason schedule (vs. Panthers; at Colts) is promising. But if you’re still fighting to lock up your playoff spot, beware of his matchups down the stretch. In weeks 13 and 14, Houston faces the Bengals and Falcons, both of whom are among the top three rushing defenses in the league.
So here we are. If you’re an Arian Foster owner, you’re not going to like what I’m about to say, but I don’t get paid to tell you what you want to hear. I’m here to drop truth bombs, people. And the truth, as I see it, is that there’s a very real possibility that Foster’s value for 2011 has peaked. That being said, it’s not crazy to shop Foster right now if you aren’t able to keep him for next year. Obviously, it only makes sense if you get a big payday in return, but I would advise you to put some feelers out. You might find someone willing to make it worth your while. You can thank me later.
2. It’s Time to Give Tebow His Due
You want to tell me he’s unorthodox? In my league, you don’t get extra points for good mechanics. You want to tell me his accuracy is suspect? I say that’s John Fox’s problem. I only know one thing when it comes to Tim Tebow: The man scores points. Period.
Last week, I started Cam Newton and left Tebow on my bench. I lost by seven-plus points, essentially ending my season. If I had started Tebow, I would have eked out a win.
I don’t regret starting Newton. It was the right move, but the point still stands. It’s time to give Tebow the credit he deserves. Here are the facts: In seven career starts, Tebow is averaging 168 yards per game through the air and another 69 on the ground. In those seven games, he’s got 14 total touchdowns and just five turnovers. In my league, that adds up to a whopping 23.1 points per game. That would put him fifth among QBs this year, behind only Aaron Rodgers,Tom Brady,Drew Brees, and Newton.
If you need a QB (Calling all Matt Schaub owners!) and your league is one of the 40% of Yahoo leagues in which Tebow is inexplicably still available, feel free to close this window immediately and go to your league page to scoop him up. I’m all out of wisdom for the week anyway.
