During the offseason fantasy writers/experts constantly discussed how shallow the third base position would be in the 2012 season, and on Monday night it got even shallower after a super star goes down. Rays third basemen Evan Longoria came up lip after sliding into second base in Monday’s game partially tearing his left hamstring. He is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks of action and his presence will be greatly missed in the Rays lineup and in fantasy lineups.
This is now the second season in a row in which Longoria will miss at least a month of action, and is now starting to look injury-prone as he reaches him prime. While the timetable for his return is within eight weeks, we have seen similar injuries in the past that have taken longer time to heel, so this could end up being a lingering problem for the better part of the season.
While Longoria is exiting fantasy lineups, fellow-third basemen Pedro Alvarez is resurfacing after a horrendous 2011 campaign. Last season Alvarez was considered to be a rising star at third base, but failed to live up to the lofty expectations everyone had for him, resulting in a .191 batting average with 80 strikeouts in 235 plate appearances. This eventually landed him in Triple-A and made his season a wash. This season on the other hand is almost the complete opposite after he has picked up the pace the last few weeks.
Since April 21, Alvarez has gone 14-for-36 with four home runs and 10 RBI while sporting a .389 batting average. The power surge from Alvarez couldn’t have come at a better time, considering the Pirates had one of the worst offenses in baseball to start the season. While he is not known for batting average, due to his lack of discipline at the plate, his power skills are nothing to joke about. He has already surpassed his home run total from a year ago connecting for six homers compared to just four in 2011 and he is now on track to become the player everyone thought he would be last season.
Will Alvarez be able to keep up at this pace? Probably not, but if you are lacking power and have a hole at third base, he should be your top option if he is still available to grab off the wavier-wire. If you were too late on Alvarez, below are a few other players that are solid fill-ins at the hot corner:
Chris Davis, 1B, 3B (BAL)–Like Alvarez, Davis was a big-time prospect who failed to get the job done early in his career. Davis posted a 17-homer and a 21-homer season in his first two years in the big leagues and then felt apart at the seams due to contact issues. He was later traded to the Orioles at the trade deadline in 2011 after three lack-luster seasons between the big leagues and Triple-A, but has now found his stripe in his new home. So far in 2012 Davis has hit five home runs and driven-in 13 RBI with an impressive .316 batting average. The batting average will likely go down as the season progresses, but his power seems to be legit and he should be consistent enough to be an every day starter in fantasy leagues for the foreseeable future.
Jed Lowrie, 3B, SS (HOU)–Lowrie started the season on the disabled-list, but has since returning to action is posting a .329 batting average with three home runs, nine RBI and 11 runs scored. What is even more impressive is that in his last 10 games he has compiled six multi-hit games including a three-hit game on Wednesday. He has been batting ahead of both Carlos Lee and J.D. Martinez in the majority of games, which should translate into a lot of runs scored if he continues to get on base. His multi-position eligibility gives him even more fantasy value considering the lack of depth at both third base and shortstop. So if you are in a deep mixed league or an NL-Only league, give Lowrie a good look.
Ty Wigginton, 1B, 3B, OF (PHI)–It seems like every season Wigginton surfaces on waiver-wire articles, so I figured I had to include him in today’s piece. In the beginning of April Wigginton wasn’t an everyday player for the Phillies as the team was trying to figure out a good way to fill the voids left by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. But after struggles from both John Mayberry and Jim Thome, Wiggninton has found himself consistent playing time and has produced at the plate. Since April 12, he has had only one game in which he did not record a hit when starting the game, and that game came on Monday. He has been a hitting-machine for the Phillies recording four multi-hit games in the last week and a half of play, but hasn’t had much to show for it besides a solid batting average. If you are in a deep mixed league and need help in the batting average category, Wigginton is a solid addition.
Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at matthewbeck@rotoinfo.com. Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information.
Now that the first full week of Spring Training is under way I think it is time to start ranking the best players leading into the 2012 season and get the party started! Now these rankings are my opinion so you may not agree with me but this should at least get the conversation started and make it feel like draft season. When compiling my overall top 100 players entering the season I take in consideration many factors from injuries to position scarcity to surrounding cast and are based on a standard 5 x 5 fantasy format. So sit back and enjoy and feel free to let me know how you feel about where your favorite players are ranked entering the 2012 season!
Miguel Cabrera, 1B (DET)–For the third season in a row Cabrera increased his batting average, while also hitting well over the .300-mark versus both right-handed and left-handed pitchers. He also posted his highest on-base percentage of his career in 2011 which was helped by setting a career-high in walks. Expect these trends to continue as he should finish with at least a .300 BA/30 HR/100 RBI season as the new king of fantasy baseball hitting in arguably the most potent offense in the American League.
Albert Pujols, 1B (LAA)–Pujols only slipped one spot from his usual No. 1 ranking after signing as a free agent with the Los Angeles Angels. However, Pujols posed a career-low in batting average for 2011 and failed to reach the 100-RBI mark for the first time in his career. He may require some time to get acquainted to the American League at the start of the season, but in the end he is still Albert Pujols and he is still a fantasy stud that should produce similar number to his career averages.
Matt Kemp, OF (LAD)–It is amazing what a little more focus can do for an athlete, and no one can prove that statement more than Kemp. Prior to the 2011 season, Kemp dedicated himself to the game of baseball and proved he was an MVP-caliber player and ended up being the fantasy baseball MVP. He set career-highs in every counting category in terms of fantasy in 2011 and fell one home run short of joining the 40/40 club. While his season 2011 season will likely be tough to duplicate, he has now shown what his true potential is and is now the best five-tool player in all of fantasy baseball.
Ryan Braun, OF (MIL)–Braun gave us all a big scare this offseason after testing positive for steroids, but in the end he won his appeal and now it is time to move on. In 2011, Braun had his best season as a Brewer, finishing the season with a .332 BA/33 HR/111RBI stat-line, but what even more impressive was his 33 steals. Now that he is given the green-light on the base paths more he can become an even more elite fantasy player. Although he doesn’t have his bash-buddy Price Fielder hitting behind him anymore, he will still be an elite fantasy player in 2012.
Jose Bautista, OF (TOR)–Bautista proved to his doubters that the 2010 season was not a fluke, following up his breakout season with 43 home runs and 103 RBIs to go along with a .302 batting average. His ability to hit for average rather than for strictly power was impressive, but he did cool off in the second half in 2011 (1st Half: .326 BA, 2nd Half: .278 BA). Depending on his position eligibility he may be considered the No. 1 third basemen in fantasy or the No. 3 outfielder but either way he is worthy of a top five pick in fantasy drafts this season.
Evan Longoria, 3B (TB)–I tend to be a little higher on Longoria than most people, but I do have my reasons. If you really breakdown his 2011 season, you would see that he had a career-low hit percentage (24%), which was the first time in his career that he was lower than 30 percent and the main cause for a batting average slide. He also suffered an oblique injury that made him miss time early in the season, but the power was still there despite the “down” season. As long as he can stay healthy all signs point to a rebound year as fantasy’s No. 1 third basemen.
Justin Upton, OF (ARI)–Upton rebounded nicely from somewhat of a down 2010 season finishing near the top of the MVP voting in the National League. His mix of power and speed puts him in a category of only a few and he still has room to grow at the age of 24. As the Diamondbacks continue to get better, so will Upton and his fantasy value.
Joey Votto, 1B (CIN)–Votto put together yet another solid season in 2011 for the Reds with a .309 BA/29 HR/103 RBI stat-line. Now entering his prime, I expect him to continue to put up similar numbers now that this seems to be his benchmark. Also keep in mind he will be a free-agent at the end of the 2013 season, so he has motivation to continue to improve since he will likely be starting to talk contracts with the Reds.
Robinson Cano, 2B (NYY)–Cano has now done it for three seasons in a row and has now permanently planted himself in the top 10 on my rankings for the foreseeable future. While there really isn’t anything too flashy about Cano, he gets the job done and considering the scarcity at second base, he is a clear-cut favorite to continue his fantasy success.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS (COL)–While many are a lot higher on Tulowitzki that I am, I still consider him to be a top 10 player, just not a top five player. What keeps him in my top 10 is the fact that he is a shortstop and there are very few shortstops that have his skill-set. Expect to see a .300 BA/25 HR/ 100 RBI season out of Tulowitzki this season, but it appears his speed is a thing of the past after two straight seasons of declined stolen bases.
Be sure to check back later in the week as I add to my overall top 100 player rankings for the 2012 season!
Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at matthewbeck@rotoinfo.com. Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information.
We’ve got stories today. A Cubs’ player gained 20 pound of muscle. What can we expect from a suddenly rejuvenated Lance Berkman? What is the prognosis on the A.J. Burnett injury? Are the Orioles seriously considering giving Nick Johnson some playing time? Will Evan Longoria miss any time with his hand issue? Is Brian Roberts finally showing some improvement?
I love the weight stories we get every year in Spring Training. Earlier in camp we got the story that Michael Pineda showed up 20 lbs heavier than his reporting weight last season. That was bad weight though, i.e. not in the muscle category if you catch my drift. Now we get a story out of the Chicago Tribune that says Darwin Barney also gained 20 lbs, but it was the good weight (i.e. muscle). “I’m a little bit overwhelmed from watching him (while coaching in Milwaukee),” manager Dale Sveum said. “He’s a lot stronger and a lot quicker than I thought.” I’ve said and written the following statement for years now, but let me repeat it yet again. There is no, none, zero, zilch, nada chance that any person can gain 20 lbs of muscle in six months. It just cannot happen. It can’t. How in the world are we to believe that a professional athlete no less, a person in extremely excellent shape to start with, can possibly gain that much weight in a half a year? If you’ve ever lifted weights for any period of time, you know what I’m saying is true, which leads to one of two positions. (A) Any player that claims they have gained that weight has used artificial means to enhance their body. (B) The report is inaccurate and the truth is that someone actually gained eight lbs, not 20. As for Barney, the extra weight is meant to help him to avoid a late season wear down job like he was subject to last year. Barney hit .306 with a .709 OPS over his first 75 games, but as the season wore on Barney’s performance dipped as he hit .238 with a .613 OPS over his final 68 games. Hopefully the extra weight will allow the contact, slap hitting second sacker, to maintain his productivity over the course of an entire season. He makes for a solid option in NL-only leagues up the middle.
Lance Berkman blew up in 2011. Berkman hit .301 which was a three year high (he had failed to hit .275 either of the past two seasons). Berkman hit 31 homers which was a four year high. Berkman had 94 RBI which was a three year high. Berkman had 90 runs scored which was a three year high. Berkman had a .412 OBP which was a three year high. Berkman had a .547 SLG which was a three year high. You get the point. It would be one thing if Berkman all of a sudden consolidated his skills. It’s a totally different thing though when we’re talking about a player who began his career in 1999. Berkman had slowly seen his performance erode, and in 2009 and 2010 he looked old. Berkman did come to camp in 2011 with the Cardinals in good shape, but it’s still hard to explain how Berkman rolled back the clock four years. His eye at the plate remained strong – his 0.99 BB/K mark was slightly above his career 0.93 mark. As for his style of hitting, Berkman was only one percent above his carer fly ball rate at 39.2 percent, but the key was a 19.9 percent HR/F ratio that was a four year best. Players usually set rolling three year levels in the HR/F category, so seeing a return to the level of his salad days was a bit surprising. The bottom line with the 36 year old Berkman is that you should be operating under the assumption that his batting average and home run total should both regress this season.
A.J. Burnett injured himself during a bunting drill, and the result was a fractured orbital bone that required surgery. After original estimates placed his recovery at 2-4 weeks, it now appears that a more likely scenario will require Burnett to sit out anywhere from 8-12 weeks. That means you shouldn’t count on Burnett to be starting for the Pirates until June. Pardon the pun, but that’s a terrible break for Burnett and the Pirates.
How long can it be before Erik Bedard gets hurt?
Nick Johnson might make the opening day roster if he’s healthy, that is according to manager Buck Showalter. “If Nick is healthy and on the field, I think he’s contributor,” Showalter said. “I think he brings some things that I’d really like to have our guys feed off of with some of the on-base percentage and deep counts.” Here are my issues with that statement. (1) Johnson is never healthy. The last time he appeared in 30 major league games was 2009. He played 24 games in 2010 and not a single big league game last year. Over the course of a career that began in 2001, Johnson has appeared in 100 or more games four times. Four. He cannot be trusted. (2) The Orioles have Chris Davis and need to commit to playing him or why bother having him on the squad. I know he has a totally different skill set than Johnson, but come on now. Johnson last hit 10 homers in 2006. Two thousand and six Orioles. How in the world can you have a first baseman who can’t reach double digit in homers? The Orioles aren’t stupid enough to count on Johnson playing every day, but Showalter does seem comfortable with using Johnson which likely means there could be less at-bats thrown in the direction of Chris Davis than, in my opinion, should be.
Evan Longoria took a pitch off his hand Thursday, and though x-rays were negative for a break, he’ll likely sit out game action through the weekend. Longoria should still be drafted at the top of the third base board on draft day, after all he did hit 31 homers with 99 RBI last season in just 483 at-bats, but I’m always slightly concerned when a batter injures his hands.
Brian Roberts, still working his way back from a concussion, is showing signs of improvement. Roberts is taking grounders and whacking away in the batting cage trying to find out if he can finally get over the hump. Roberts, a fantasy star as recently as 2009 (.283-16-79110-30), has appeared in a total of 98 games the past two seasons. He is getting no love at all in mixed leagues, but I’m here to suggest that you consider rostering him with one of your last selection. Take him in the 28th round in your mixed league. If he doesn’t pan out, hit the waiver-wire early. However, if he’s healthy, there is no chance that he won’t return a great amount of value for that late round selection. Just make sure you’re operating with the understanding that there is a very real chance that the choice of Roberts could lead to frustration.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
The Tampa Bay Rays are playing very good and are a very good team, but there are a few players they could look into to making them an amazing team. If they keep up this good play they will defintly be buyers by the deadline.
A team like the New York Mets matchup very well with the Rays and the Mets need young pitching bad and Tampa Bay is loaded with young pitching. With the Rays surplus of pitching I could see them going after shortstop Jose Reyes. A deal for the star shortstop would take a good haul for the Mets to trade him but with the Rays awsome minor league system they could hammer a deal out.
What would the Rays have to give up some people may be asking, well it would take atleast two solid arms and possibly a third player. A deal with this much magnitude the Rays would have to center it around right-handed pitcher Chris Archer who the Rays received in the Matt Garza trade before the season began. With the Rays giving up one of their two high profile arms in their farm system they’d have to give up one more good arm and my thought would be left-handed pitcher Enny Romero.
If Archer were in any other organization he would rank so much higher but with Matt Moore on this team he will always be second banana as far as prospect rankings go. Right now at Double A Archer is struggling with an 0-1 record, 5.93 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 25 strike outs and 16 walks. The Rays have been working hard with Archer to get his walks down and once he does we will see his inflated ERA go back down to normal. In the Mets system he would easily be the number one prospect pitcher right up their with Matt Harvey. Archer once he fills out his body will have a body like Edwin Jackson and can consistently throw strikes he will be a dangerous pitcher. Â
Romero would insure that the Mets got a great haul for giving up one of the most coveted players at his position. Romero is off to a slow start for Single A Bowling Green with a 1-2 record, 6.33 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 30 strike outs and 16 walks in 21.1 innings pitched. Like Archer he is struggling with being wild and walking to many batters and once he gets that down his numbers should come back down to where they should be. He is striking batters out at a good clip right now though he is striking out 12.7 batters per nine innings which will help his case as being one of the center pieces to bring in Reyes.Â
The Rays could use Reyes speed as their leadoff hitter and Reyes can do many things that Carl Crawford once did for them which will help make their offense more versatile. He will also be a more consistent hitter and get on base more then Reid Brignac the Rays shortstop at the moment. Also with Reyes on board this will help bring another solid face to the franchise to help third baseman Evan Longoria and starting pitcher David Price sell tickets.Â
The Rays need to capatilize on their awsome farm system and move a couple prospects to help bring in more fans and help them win their first world series. With Reyes still being rather young they could sign him long term and have one of the best shortstops in the major league.
Aramis Ramirez reacts after a strike out. Maybe the Cubs should try moving this grimace elsewhere (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
It started with the Tampa Bay Rays, and quickly spread to now have impacted Florida, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Washington, San Francisco (twice) and Los Angeles.
It is a rash of injuries to third basemen around the league, injuries that have knocked out some of the top players in the game at the hot corner.
Each day, ESPN’s baseball podcasts has been tallying up these mishaps, and on Monday’s edition tossed out a line to poke fun at stat guru Mark Simon, a big New York Mets fan:
Maybe the run on trouble at third gives the Mets an opportunity to finally trade David Wright.
It was laughed off by Simon as the joke it was.
But maybe it is the correct move for the Cubs, a chance to trade Aramis Ramirez (.291/.351/.388) to a team that is worried they may have issues at third for the long term, and can’t risk falling too far behind in their division races.
When the year started, the Cubs needed everything to go perfectly for them to compete for the NL Central crown.
They needed to stay healthy; they needed breaks to go their way.
The season may only be a month old, but the breaks haven’t gone for the Cubs. Losing two starters on the same day was a big blow. Having Ryan Dempster pitch like an arm off the scrap heap hasn’t been helpful either.
And the struggles that the Cubs have had scoring runs continue. Outside of Alfonso Soriano’s sudden power surge (mostly with no one on base), the Cubs just aren’t pushing runs across.
Holding onto Ramirez in the hope that there is a pennant run coming doesn’t make sense any longer.
All the teams with the exception of Washington have some glimmer of hope that they can compete for their division title this season. They are going to want a player better than a standard replacement to help them in their time of need.
To be sure Ramirez hasn’t been stellar this season, ranking at just 0.5 wins above replacement for the year. But that is still greater than zero, however small that might be. Add in that playing on a team competing for a title might push Ramirez, and teams could be willing to take a shot. That he would be going to an actual contender would give Aramis a reason to ditch his no-trade clause (which also earns him a nice $1 million bonus this season).
To understand why teams may want Ramirez, you have to look at a team that has already suffered through the replacement cycle.
Tampa Bay lost Evan Longoria at the beginning of the season, and has been using a replacement player at third base since. While the team has performed well, the positional replacement has not.
Between Sean Rodriguez and Felipe Lopez, who have garnered the majority of the at bats, third base has yielded an .189/.229/.337 line for the Rays.
Perhaps because of the sudden breakout of Sam Fuld and some awesome pitching, Tampa hasn’t been absolutely lost with the hole that Longoria created.
The two-headed monster of Rodriguez and Lopez is what a normal replacement player looks like. This is what a player like Ramirez could counteract.
Assuming that Aramis would approve such a move, the Cubs would have a hole of their own at third base.
But for now, they could fill that hole with Jeff Baker, who rates out as a decent fielder at third (and actually an improvement over the defense that Ramirez offers based on runs saved). Plus Baker has had a hot bat this season, even given the small sample size.
While he has previously been suggested as a platoon option with Carlos Pena at first base, this would enable Mike Quade to get his bat in the lineup every day (even if his place in the lineup changes from day to day), especially since the manager seems reluctant to sit Pena’s large contract.
(If he ever decides to do that, and Baker is over at third, the Cubs have Tyler Colvin sitting on the bench. Colvin might not be the best option, but at least it is an option.)
And if Baker can just hold the position steady until the All-Star break, the Cubs could take a chance on bringing up a piece of the youth movement that is coming in the next few season.
Josh Vitters (AA, 24 G, 4 HR, .241/.292/.470) might not be totally ready for the Majors, but he is expected to be the next third baseman for the Cubs. A half of a season in the big leagues would give the club a chance to judge where he is, especially since the Cubs might be out of it by the break.
Ramriez’ contract is going away at the end of the year and the Cubs are unlikely to resign him or exercise the option year given his performance recently. The best move for the long term health of the team is to try and move him, especially with teams looking for a replacement for their injured players (and if they are getting a decent bench option once their starter returns).
If the Cubs were truly serious about making the move, the most promising opportunity could be in San Francisco, where the Giants have lost both Pablo Sandoval and Mark DeRosa. The team is seriously considering starting Aubrey Huff (never a great fielder there, and hasn’t played at third since 2008) at third base while both players are out. Huff is currently sporting a .198/.257/.290 line.
Yes, San Francisco qualifies as desperate.
And the Cubs shouldn’t be afraid to deal Ramirez in their own division either, if the Cardinals or Reds show interest (can you imagine Ramirez back playing under Dusty Baker? That seems like a recipe for disaster). Chicago is unlikely to contend, and they may get important pieces back in return.
The time is now for Jim Hendry to move if he wants to make the impact trade.
It may seem early to make such a drastic move, but teams are hurting now and might be more open to the discussion than in July.
And for the Cubs, it would be an important first step in reshaping the team for the future. The Cubs emptied out a good portion of the farm system dealing for Matt Garza in the off-season. They should be targeting some prospects in return.
Ramirez isn’t going to draw the top talent, but if the Cubs could get another back of the rotation starter (as we have seen, a massive need), or even some high-risk infield prospect, they could consider the trade a success.
The real impact won’t be known right away (the Cubs will probably get two to three players back, and chances are only one will pan out), but it is the momentum they need.
Now if there were just a run of injuries to left fielders too.
