Mike Aviles has been a wonderful player this season with five homers, 19 RBI, 21 runs scored and four steals for the Red Sox, and he’s been a stupendous fantasy player given his low draft day cost. But all is not necessarily rosie with Aviles. His average has dipped to .266, his OBP is awful at .304, an over his last eight games he’s failed to go deep while he’s also gone seven games without an RBI. People just assumed, based on the hot start, that Aviles was in line for fantasy greatness this year. Don’t get me wrong he can hit and he should run enough to be a very solid middle infield option in mixed leagues, but the prevailing wisdom that he has somehow become a lock for the top-10 at the shortstop position this year isn’t a position that I would be wholeheartedly supporting at the moment.
Peter Bourjos had an impressive rookie season last year hitting .271 with 12 homers, 22 steals and 72 runs scored. He also plays some of the best defensive center field in the game. Alas, he has hit under .200 this year and he’s stolen just one base (perhaps that hip issue is way worse than he let on this spring – remember it was reported that he would likely need surgery when the year was over). I bring up Bourjos because he was left out of the starting lineup Thursday for the ninth time in 11 games. The Angels sent Bobby Abreu packing to the Dodgers, but they still have three other starting caliber outfielders in Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter and Mike Trout. We all know Trout is playing on a daily basis so it seems like Bourjos will be relegated to giving Wells/Hunter days off as needed. If you’re a Peta the Cheetah owner in a mixed league let’s hope you have ample other options to turn to because it doesn’t seem likely that he will be in the lineup on a regular basis at any point in the near future, barring an injury of course.
Willie Bloomquist has one hit in his last 19 at-bats to drop his average down to .209 on the year. Since the start of last season he has stolen 23 bases in just 121 games giving him some clear value in NL-only leagues, but he’s just not a mixed league option. Never has been, never will be. With Stephen Drew on the road to recovery, there is some growing hope that he might make it back to the D’backs by the end of the month, Fast Willie’s NL-only value could also soon be on the decline.
Lot’s of players are struggling at the dish and one of them is actually Miguel Cabrera who is just 6-for-34 in May (.176). I could care less. Cabrera will be his normal productive self by the time the season is completely. He already has seven homers and 22 RBI in 30 games despite the terrible start to May.
All everyone is talking about of late is Allen Craig, and while I agree that he has a nice bat, there are some serious issues here that the majority of people seem to just be ignoring. The good news is that he can hit. Craig is batting .333 with three homers and 11 RBI in just seven games this season, an in 126 career games he has hit .293 with 18 homers and 69 RBI in a mere 341 at-bats. An outfielder by trade, Craig played eight games at second base last year and he has appeared in seven games at first base this year adding to his positional flexibility in some leagues. However, he just doesn’t have a spot in the daily lineup with the Cardinals when everyone is healthy. When Lance Berkman returns from his strained calf, potentially Friday, he’ll be the every day first baseman. The outfield has Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday as everyday locks at the corners, and Shane Robinson is there with his .318 average to lend some depth. Craig cannot play center field on a regular basis, so that leave John Jay and his, oh, .379 batting average, in the daily lineup as well. The team also doesn’t think that Craig can handle second base for an extended period of time on the defensive side of the game. Craig will play, but he may only be out there four times a week which would severely damage his value in shallower mixed leagues. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Speaking of speedsters, the Yankees are about ready to welcome back Brett Gardner from an elbow injury. Out since April 18th, Gardner was batting .321 with a .424 OBP and two steals over nine contests. A 45-steal guy in 2010 and 2011, he’ll be off an running as soon as he’s back out on the field.
I think I’m going to stat to call Omar Infante The Little Engine That Could. Infante hit his 6th home run earlier this week to break a stretch of 12-straight homer-less outings. In 27 games this season Infante has one homer less than he hit in 148 games last year and two less than he hit in 134 games in 2010. How about this nugget? With six home runs this year Infante has as many homers as Starlin Castro, Elvis Andrus, Yonder Alonso, Joey Votto, Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols — combined.
I hear a lot about Jason Kipnis and how the guy is a borderline star at second base. I will admit that his totals of five homers, 20 RBI, 19 runs and six steals paint him as an elite offensive option at second. However, I’ll share with you some of my concerns. (1) His average has fallen down to .265 over the past week. He hit .272 last year with the Indians after batting .280 at Triple-A in 92 games last season. He’s just not a .300 hitter. He may not even be a .280 hitter at this point. (2) Kipnis hit 29 homers in 972 minor league at bats so he has some pop, but 12 homers in 253 big league at-bats covering just 66 games? Is he really a 30 homer bat? I know his big league pace says that is possible, but I’ve got a real problem with that. Not only does his minor league track record suggests that is unlikely, so does his HR/F rate as an Indian. In his 66 games as a big leaguer his HR/F rate is 17.4 percent. That’s an impressive number that is indicative of a 30 homer bat (the big league average is about 9-10 percent). The problem is that Kipnis has never been that type of hitter. You can take those 253 at-bats and think that he has established some new baseline for power, but I’m more of the opinion that we’re looking at a sample size artifact meaning, the more at-bats he accrues, the lower that number will fall as things “even out.” (3) Where is this speed coming from on the bases? In 254 minor league games Kipnis swiped 24 bases, a pace of 14 thefts per 150 games played. As an Indian Kipnis has 11 steals in 66 games. Has he all of a sudden gotten faster? Have the catcher’s gotten worse? Hardly. He’s been terrific with 11 steals in 12 chances, but I’m also wary of this being a sample size situation meaning it’s simply not logical to expect him to steal 30 bases this season. Am I saying pull the plug on Kipnis? Absolutely not. He’s a fine young ball player with a very intriguing skill set. At the same time it seems highly unlikely to me that we are witnessing the birth of a perennial 20/20 threat at second base, so keep your expectations in check.
Jed Lowrie is hitting .301 on the year, but I continue to wave the yellow flag when his name is brought up. Over his last four games he has no runs, no RBIs and is just 2-for-16.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Some big name guys in the fantasy game have been laying eggs the first couple of weeks of the season. Since Easter is past, and none of the eggs we’re talking about are exactly of the Faberge variety, this clearly isn’t a situation that has anyone jumping for joy. I’ll give my thoughts on a few of these strugglers and try to point you in the right direction in terms of what some reasonable expectations are for each of them.
COLD STARTS
Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals (.197-3-8-7-0)
Are you really worried if you own Holliday? If you are, slow your roll. He will be fine. Period. Even in his down effort last year he hit .296 with 22 homers, and he appeared in only 124 games due to a variety of ailments. In eight previous seasons Holliday has never hit less than .290, an it’s highly doubtful he will fail to get there this season as well. What that means is that if you can add Holliday to the mix right now you’ll be getting a guy who should hit .300 for you this season. In addition, and it’s hard to tell given his dreadful start, it should be pointed out that he’s still on pace for about 30 homers and 80 RBI. He’ll be fine. Buy him from any panicked owner immediately.
Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins (0-3, 11.02 ERA, 2.33 WHIP, 0.92 K/BB ratio)
He might lose his rotation spot, and that would render his value nearly nil in the vast majority of fantasy leagues in the short-term. “They’ve given me the chance to start, and I haven’t done my job at all,” Liriano said, “so whatever they’re going to do it’s OK with me.” His manger was pretty honest too. “…We’re going to step back to see what we need to do to try to get his confidence back and try to figure some things out with him,” said Ron Gardenhire. One fact that is in Liriano’s favor is that Scott Baker is out for the year after undergoing arm surgery. Still, a move to the bullpen seems highly possible given that he’s walked 13 batters while allowing 25 hits in just 16.1 innings leading to those horrific ratios. Get him on the cheap if you can cause this is still an impressive arm, it likely won’t cost you anything to add him from a disgruntled owner, but 10/12 team mixed leaguers have every right to be concerned.
Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres (.183-1-4-10-4)
The 40 steals and 82 runs that Maybin racked up last season seemed to cover up a multitude of his sins in the eyes of many. First off, he hit only .264. That’s barely a big league average number (his career mark of .251 is below average). Second, he hit only nine home runs to give him 22 in 1,064 career at-bats entering this year. Third, he still strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats, a terrible number for a player with his skills. Fourth, he rarely walks. His carer 7.8 percent walk rate has led to a 0.31 BB/K ratio, well below the big league average of about 0.45. Add in the fact that he also owns a career line drive rate of 15.5 percent, well below the big league average of 19-20 percent, and what we have here is a talented player who has a lot of holes in his game.
Ervin Santana, SP, Angels (0-3, 6.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.71 K/BB ratio)
He’s off to a slow start, but he has a track record of success, and that is what you should be focused on, that and the fact that he’s not dealing with any physical issues right now. The Angels righty has gone over 215-innings in three of the past four seasons, and in those three years he averaged 15 victories a season (he won eight games in 139.2 innings in 2009). Santana has also struck out at least 169 batters in three of his last four years showing a nice power arm. I know you don’t want to hear it, but he’s just struggled over three starts. There’s no reason for panic here. Stay the course.
Alexei Ramirez, SS, White Sox (.246-1-4-3-1)
No one seems to be happy when they call out this guys name on draft day, and people already seem willing to bail on him after just 15 games this year. I know he doesn’t own an outstanding skill, but he’s also extremely consistent and productive which has always caused me to be a bit confused at to why he doesn’t engender more love in the fantasy game. The past four years Ramirez has posted a 5×5 line of at least .269-15-68-65. Do you know how many shortstops have reached those numbers each of the past four years? The answer is one. In fact, only eight players in baseball have been able to hit all four of those levels each of the last four years, so consider Ramirez in some pretty damn good company (Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Hunter Pence, Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera). Ramirez should be just fine.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Brewers (.158-1-6-8-2)
Last year he had two homers in April and May. He finished the year with 26 homers. In eight of the last nine seasons he’s hit 25 bombs. Only time he missed was 2009 when he had 15 – in just 82 games played. The power will be there. As for the average, come on, you know that will rebound, right? For his career April has been his most difficult month for batting average at .255 (in no other month is that average below .271). His current BABIP is .182. His career mark is .288. I could keep going, but the point should be obvious. Ramirez will be a solid run producer by the time the year is over, he’s just off to a brutal start.
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers (.197-2-3-7-1)
I’ve said and written this many times, but for some reason people have a love affair with Weeks. I know he is talented and that he was a huge fantasy weapon in 2010 when he hit 29 homers, knocked in 83 runs and crossed home plate 112 times, but this guy has more holes than Swiss cheese. Since 2005 he has three seasons of less than 100 games played, and only four with more than 100. He’s also appeared in 130 games ONCE in his career. Once. He owns a career batting average of .254. The league average during his career is .266. A one time base stealing threat, Weeks has swiped 23 bases since the start of the 2009 season. That’s 23 steals in 331 games. He’s not a stolen base threat. So he always misses more than a month of games, rarely steals bases, and is nothing more than league average in batting average. So tell me again, what’s all the excitement about?
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
The games count. Finally. What are some of the main story lines as we get the 2012 season underway? So glad you asked.
Everyone is looking for saves, questions on the 9th inning probably make up a third of my daily queries, and now we have at least some clarity about the situation in Boston as Alfredo Aceves will be given the first shot to lock down the 9th inning (good luck with it lasting). As for the Nationals we have an answer to how they will handle the 9th in lieu of Drew Storen who hopes to be back in about two weeks. The Nationals will go with Brad Lidge and then Henry Rodriguez. Wait Ray, you said you had an answer as to how the 9th inning would play out, didn’t you? Yes I did, and yes I gave you an answer. That’s right, the Nationals plan is to alternate, daily, between Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Well, at least you’ll know who to start on a daily basis though if you’re in a weekly league this situation pretty much ruins the value of each arm.
Speaking of the Nationals, they made a surprising move on Wednesday as they demoted John Lannan, who still had options left, to the minors. All along the assumption was that Lannan would handle the 5th spot in the Nationals’ rotation until Chien-Ming Wang was healthy enough to return (the Nats believe Wang will be read to take his turn in the rotation right around the first of May). However, the Nationals decided to go with youngster Ross Detwiler in the rotation instead of Lannan (obviously angered, Lannan has officially requested a trade, but given that the Nats tipped their hand and showed they had no need for him, and the fact that he’s also owed $5 million this season, let’s just say the market has been slow to develop for Lannan’s services). From a fantasy perspective this is a great move as Lannan was nothing other than the quintessential innings eater who offered nothing at all in NL-only leagues. Detwiler on the other hand, does offer something. Detwiler, a first round selection in 2007, throws hard and has a decent feel for pitching. However, he’s not enjoyed much success in the bigs with a 4.07 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 172.1 innings, but at least he offers some “upside” whereas the dye had already been cast on the outlook of Lannan.
Tommy Hanson will have no restrictions placed on him when he starts Thursday. Seemingly recovered from his concussion, Hanson also seems to have a rather healthy wing after experiencing some shoulder woes. Some people seem to have forgotten that Hanson had 142 strikeouts last season in 130 innings, and that his WHIP was 1.17 (in three years his WHIP has been 1.18, 1.17 and 117. How is that for consistency?). People might look at the 3.60 ERA from last season and be nonplussed, but that would overlook the fact that before his shoulder started acting up last season that his ERA was 2.44 through 17 starts at the All-Star break (that number skyrocketed to 8.10 over his final five starts when he clearly wasn’t healthy). He’s a risk because of healthy concerns so I’ve been willing all preseason to drop him about five spots in my rankings, but at the same time if there’s a guy who was being taken in the late 20′s at the pitchers spot who has a better chance at being a fantasy ace this season I would be surprised.
Do not, let me repeat do not, go running to the waiver-wire to add Kyle Lohse after his masterful outing last night against the Marlins (7.1 innings, two hits, one run, no walks, three strikeouts). You might be saying to yourself ‘but Ray, I don’t need to run to the waiver-wire since I drafted him after his 3.39 ERA, 1.17 WHIP effort from last season.’ Let’s break things down with Lohse. Yes, his overall numbers last season were impressive, but he also posted a 4.55 ERA in June, a 5.53 mark in July and a 5.92 ERA in August giving him a 5.29 ERA over 15 starts in the middle of last season. Of course that means he was great over his other 15 starts, but the point is that is that he is not an elite arm, never has been, never will be. (1) For his career, and we’re talking about 323 games including 299 starts, Lohse owns a 4.62 ERA. (2) If we remove the “15 good games” he threw last season when he posted a 1.94 ERA, Lohse has posted a 4.80 ERA over 308 games (284 starts). (3) In an 11 year career he’s posted an ERA under 4.15 just twice. (4) In 2009 his ERA was 4.74. In 2010 his ERA was 6.55. I could keep going on an on, but I think the point should be fairly obvious, shouldn’t it? Lohse can be a decent stop gap option in the right match up, but he’s not a 3.00 ERA type of arm, not with a 1.12 GB/FB ratio for his career along with a mere 5.59 K/9 ratio.
Speaking of the Cardinals, how good was it to see that Rafael Furcal went 3-for-5 with an RBI on Wednesday? Sure it was only one game so it doesn’t make much sense to read anything into it, but it is heartening to see that Furcal may have some juice left after he looked lost at the dish during spring. Furcal is best served as a middle infield option right now in mixed leagues, but given that he’s failed to appear in 100 games in three of the past four years you would be best served to have another option on your roster that you could turn to as well. Still, the guy is one year removed from hitting .300 with 22 steals in just 97 games for the Dodgers, and he is just 34 years old so it’s not like he is ancient. Obviously there is no hope for him to return to his salad days of 2003-06, but if you added him late in your mixed league draft you might have gotten yourself a weapon that could aid you pretty substantially in 2012… if he can stay out of the doctor’s office.
It has nothing to do with fantasy baseball, but everyone has seen the new deal that Joey Votto signed with the Reds right? If you take the two years on his current deal, and then add in the 10 year deal he just signed, we arrive at a 12-year deal worth $251.5 million. That’s the third most money ever given to a player – both of Arod’s deals were for more – but the 12 years are an all-time record for any professional baseball player. (Albert Pujols got $240 over 10 years while Prince Fielder received $214 million over nine years). On yeah, the Reds also have the option of paying Votto $20 million in 2024 when he is 41 years old. I think they’ll probably buy him out for the $7 million that the contract includes. Votto is a great player, but paying a guy in his late 30′s and into his 40′s $25 million a year is, frankly, stupid. I realize the Reds needed to do something like this to keep Votto in the fold, but there are going to regret this deal, big time, in about six or seven years when Votto is no longer an elite force.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Now that the first full week of Spring Training is under way I think it is time to start ranking the best players leading into the 2012 season and get the party started! Now these rankings are my opinion so you may not agree with me but this should at least get the conversation started and make it feel like draft season. When compiling my overall top 100 players entering the season I take in consideration many factors from injuries to position scarcity to surrounding cast and are based on a standard 5 x 5 fantasy format. So sit back and enjoy and feel free to let me know how you feel about where your favorite players are ranked entering the 2012 season!
Miguel Cabrera, 1B (DET)–For the third season in a row Cabrera increased his batting average, while also hitting well over the .300-mark versus both right-handed and left-handed pitchers. He also posted his highest on-base percentage of his career in 2011 which was helped by setting a career-high in walks. Expect these trends to continue as he should finish with at least a .300 BA/30 HR/100 RBI season as the new king of fantasy baseball hitting in arguably the most potent offense in the American League.
Albert Pujols, 1B (LAA)–Pujols only slipped one spot from his usual No. 1 ranking after signing as a free agent with the Los Angeles Angels. However, Pujols posed a career-low in batting average for 2011 and failed to reach the 100-RBI mark for the first time in his career. He may require some time to get acquainted to the American League at the start of the season, but in the end he is still Albert Pujols and he is still a fantasy stud that should produce similar number to his career averages.
Matt Kemp, OF (LAD)–It is amazing what a little more focus can do for an athlete, and no one can prove that statement more than Kemp. Prior to the 2011 season, Kemp dedicated himself to the game of baseball and proved he was an MVP-caliber player and ended up being the fantasy baseball MVP. He set career-highs in every counting category in terms of fantasy in 2011 and fell one home run short of joining the 40/40 club. While his season 2011 season will likely be tough to duplicate, he has now shown what his true potential is and is now the best five-tool player in all of fantasy baseball.
Ryan Braun, OF (MIL)–Braun gave us all a big scare this offseason after testing positive for steroids, but in the end he won his appeal and now it is time to move on. In 2011, Braun had his best season as a Brewer, finishing the season with a .332 BA/33 HR/111RBI stat-line, but what even more impressive was his 33 steals. Now that he is given the green-light on the base paths more he can become an even more elite fantasy player. Although he doesn’t have his bash-buddy Price Fielder hitting behind him anymore, he will still be an elite fantasy player in 2012.
Jose Bautista, OF (TOR)–Bautista proved to his doubters that the 2010 season was not a fluke, following up his breakout season with 43 home runs and 103 RBIs to go along with a .302 batting average. His ability to hit for average rather than for strictly power was impressive, but he did cool off in the second half in 2011 (1st Half: .326 BA, 2nd Half: .278 BA). Depending on his position eligibility he may be considered the No. 1 third basemen in fantasy or the No. 3 outfielder but either way he is worthy of a top five pick in fantasy drafts this season.
Evan Longoria, 3B (TB)–I tend to be a little higher on Longoria than most people, but I do have my reasons. If you really breakdown his 2011 season, you would see that he had a career-low hit percentage (24%), which was the first time in his career that he was lower than 30 percent and the main cause for a batting average slide. He also suffered an oblique injury that made him miss time early in the season, but the power was still there despite the “down” season. As long as he can stay healthy all signs point to a rebound year as fantasy’s No. 1 third basemen.
Justin Upton, OF (ARI)–Upton rebounded nicely from somewhat of a down 2010 season finishing near the top of the MVP voting in the National League. His mix of power and speed puts him in a category of only a few and he still has room to grow at the age of 24. As the Diamondbacks continue to get better, so will Upton and his fantasy value.
Joey Votto, 1B (CIN)–Votto put together yet another solid season in 2011 for the Reds with a .309 BA/29 HR/103 RBI stat-line. Now entering his prime, I expect him to continue to put up similar numbers now that this seems to be his benchmark. Also keep in mind he will be a free-agent at the end of the 2013 season, so he has motivation to continue to improve since he will likely be starting to talk contracts with the Reds.
Robinson Cano, 2B (NYY)–Cano has now done it for three seasons in a row and has now permanently planted himself in the top 10 on my rankings for the foreseeable future. While there really isn’t anything too flashy about Cano, he gets the job done and considering the scarcity at second base, he is a clear-cut favorite to continue his fantasy success.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS (COL)–While many are a lot higher on Tulowitzki that I am, I still consider him to be a top 10 player, just not a top five player. What keeps him in my top 10 is the fact that he is a shortstop and there are very few shortstops that have his skill-set. Expect to see a .300 BA/25 HR/ 100 RBI season out of Tulowitzki this season, but it appears his speed is a thing of the past after two straight seasons of declined stolen bases.
Be sure to check back later in the week as I add to my overall top 100 player rankings for the 2012 season!
Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at matthewbeck@rotoinfo.com. Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information.
