In my last post I discussed a handful of players that I felt were being overvalued in early mock drafts. For those of you who missed it, you can find it here.
After studying the Average Draft Position (ADP) reports from Mock Draft Central I have compiled a list of players that I feel are being undervalued throughout standard mixed leagues. Whether it being from injury concerns or a bad 2011 season, the players listed below are being drafted too late in early mock drafts.
Ryan Braun, OF (MIL)–17.63 ADP–In case you were living under a rock for the last few days Braun’s 50-game suspension to start the 2012 season has been overturned. His ADP has gone moved up 10 points since the news was announced and I expect that number to continue to climb. By the time draft season comes along he should be in the top 10, but as of now he is being undervalued.
Kevin Youkilis, 3B (BOS)–84.06 ADP–Injuries have plagued Youkilis each of the last three seasons, but there is still plenty of juice left in the tank. If he can get avoid the disabled-list for an extended period of time, a seventh round pick for a proven veteran could produce a quality return on investment in most fantasy formats.
Jayson Werth, OF (WAS)–96.92 ADP–I am giving Werth a pass for the 2011 season in the fact that he had to adjust to a new ballclub that didn’t have the surrounding cast like he had in Philadelphia. Although I don’t think he will return to full value from when he was with the Phillies, he still has the potential of getting back to 30 homers with an improved ballclub around him.
Adam Wainwright, SP (STL)–106.03 ADP–Since Wainwright has yet to pitch since the 2010 season, this is no surprise to see him being drafted outside of the top 100 in early mock drafts. Early reports form Spring Training indicate that Wainwright is on schedule for Opening Day and if he can return to at least 75 percent of what he was when he last pitched, he will be a steal come draft day.
Jason Heyward, OF (ATL)–106.62 ADP–Heyward suffered from the typical sophomore slump that the majority of young players go through following their rookie season. But if you put everything into consideration, he was bound to fail in 2011 in terms of fantasy. He was being drafted way too early in most drafts last season and in order to live up to expectations he would’ve had to stay healthy and not suffer any setbacks all season. With that said, this year he will be on the opposite side of the table in the fact that he may be overlooked in fantasy drafts and as an eighth or ninth round pick as of now he should have no problem outdoing his draft position.
Johnny Cueto, SP (CIN)–113.06 ADP–While I don’t expect Cueto to post a sub-3.00 ERA again like in 2011, he is still a better pitcher than his ADP indicates. He has made strides in improving his ERA each of the last three seasons and has also shown a dip in his WHIP as well. His home ballpark does not help his case, but if he continues to induce groundballs instead of going for strikeouts he will be a great investment this season, especially at his current ADP.
Carlos Beltran, OF (STL)–142.26 ADP–Beltran, who is always an injury concern, posted a four-year high in at-bats in 2011 finishing the season with 520 at-bats. Now playing in a more hitter-friendly division Beltran should be able to duplicate his 2011 production, especially in a solid lineup from top to bottom. There is no reason why outfielders like Nick Markakis (122.04 ADP) and Peter Bourjos (132.36 ADP) should be going ahead of Beltran considering his situation.
David Freese, 3B (STL)–162.36 ADP–Freese has had a hard time staying healthy in his young career, but when he has been on the field he has done nothing but impress. He has plenty of power-upside to become a top 10 third basemen by season’s end and in the Cardinals lineup, he will be looked upon to produce in plenty of situations to produce quality fantasy numbers. As long as he can stay on the field there is not a doubt in my mind that he will out produce his current draft position.
Carlos Marmol, RP (CHC)–166.10 ADP–Marmol fell upon few rough patches in 2011, but when you possess the strikeout ability like he does his fantasy stock should be higher than his current position. He is currently being drafted outside of the top 10 at his position and if he can improve his control enough to hold onto the starting job, he is going to be in the top five next year at this time. With that said he is going to give owners a ton of value if he can revert back to his 2010 version.
Kendrys Morales, 1B (LAA)–220.08 ADP–Although Morales has yet to play a game since the middle of the 2010 season, there is a ton of upside at his current draft position if he can get consistent playing time. In 2009, Morales was an MVP candidate after coming out of now where hitting 34 home runs and 108 RBIs with a .306 BA, but hasn’t played a full season since. With Albert Pujols playing first and a crowded outfield pushing Bobby Abreu to designated hitter, Morales will have to compete with Abreu for playing time. I expect his ADP to go up with a few good Spring Training games, but for now monitor his progress and jump all over him on draft day if he continues to be overlooked.
*All average draft position data courtesy of Mock Draft Central as of February 29, 2012.
Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at matthewbeck@rotoinfo.com. Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information.
