Most of us love to roster the youngsters, but often times it doesn’t pay off. We’ll consider the case of a third baseman and an outfield in today’s piece. We’ll also hit on a third baseman who is heating up and a starting pitcher who seems to be cooling just a bit.
BE WARY OF YOUNGSTERS
I say it all the time. For every Mike Trout that we see there are, literally, 75 youngsters, if not more, each year who fail to live up to the hype. One of those players this year is destined to be Nolan Arenado of the Rockies.
The minor league leader in RBI last season with 122, Arenado was hyped to all hell by the baseball establishment. Some thought he would open the season as the Rockies third baseman given that they didn’t really have an elite option there. Even those that took the moderate road said that, worst case scenario, Arenado would be starting at third for the Rockies by the All-Star break.
Then there were folks like me who pointed out the obvious.
(1) Arenado is 21 years old.
(2) Though he had 122 RBI last season, it was at High-A. Think about that. Were you really expecting a guy who didn’t have a single at-bat even at Double-A to be in the big leagues quickly? ‘But wait Ray, Bryce Harper didn’t have a lot of upper level minor league work, and look how good he has been.’ There’s a huge problem with this line of thought, and it’s everywhere. Just because Harper and Mike Trout have exploded on the scene people assume that it’s fairly normal for elite prospects to do this. Flat out – it simply isn’t. Consider some of the top-10 prospects from recent seasons… did any of them immediately explode at the big league level?
I could go on, but you should just stick this in your memory banks and remember it always. IT IS RARE FOR ANY YOUNG PLAYER TO BE A STAR FROM THE START OF HIS CAREER. It happens, but you’re never going to win a fantasy league if you build your team around players with no big league experience – the odds are extremely against that move ever paying off with a championship.
(3) Arenado is not a finished product. He hit two homers in 54 games in 2009. In 2010 he hit 12 homers in 92 games. Even last season, with all his success, he had only 20 homers in 134 games. This season, at Double-A, he’s hitting .293 but he has only seven homers and 38 RBI in 75 games. He’s done a great job with pitch recognition with a 0.89 BB/K mark, but he’s just not driving the ball with authority. As a result of that, and a few other things it seems, the Rockies announced that he is likely to spend not the rest of the first half but the entire 2012 season in the minor leagues. Here are the words of GM Don O’Dowd.
”Nolan Arenado’s maturity level has not yet reached his talent level. He will probably finish the season at Double-A, unless there are injuries or other circumstances”.
Yes, there is more to being a big leaguer than just knocking in runs.
Hopefully you took the moderate path with Arenado and weren’t counting on him to be a savior in the second half of the 2012 season.
Before leaving this topic, a brief note about the man who is currently manning third base for the Rockies. Jordan Pacheco hasn’t flashed any power at all with one homer and eight doubles in 173 at-bats, but he’s struck out only 22 times and is hitting .306 on the year giving the Rockies a cheap, moderately effective option at the hot corner who is paying big time dividends for those that rostered him in NL-only leagues.
PIRATES YOUNGSTER IN TROUBLE
Jose Tabata took the league by storm as a rookie in 2010 hitting .299 with 61 runs scored and 19 steals in 102 games. Since then, he’s been a disappointment. Limited to just 91 games last season because of injury, he still stole 16 bags but hit a mere .266 while knocking in 21 runs left him as a spotty play even in NL-only leagues. This year his performance has worsened, dramatically, as he’s hitting .226 with a .288 OBP and .339 SLG through 68 games. He’s also stolen a mere eight bases while somehow being caught eight times. And, 11 RBI in 68 games – is he even trying? “One thing you can bring every day is your attitude and your effort. I demand that, and I think we’ve had some disconnects with that,” manager Clint Hurdle said. He also hinted that a demotion to Triple-A could happen for Tabata in the near future. A stalled prospect, at this point there’s no reason to be paying any attention to Tabata unless you are in that aforementioned NL-only league, and even then, his star is clearly dimming.
HEATING UP
Ryan Zimmerman has been awful for most of the year, and part of that blame has to go to the fact that he is trying to play through a shoulder injury. It’s always darkest before the dawn though, and perhaps a recent injection in his shoulder will allow this proud athlete to return to the level of relevance. He’s been hot in Colorado of late, an over his last 17 at-bats he’s gone for eight hits and he has two homers in his last two contests. Ryan Z also has an RBI in 4-straight contests and he’s only struck out once in five games. He’s still light years away from being someone you just plug and play in a 10 or 12 team mixed league at third base, but maybe we’ve written him off to early in terms of him being a solid fantasy contributor for the 2012 season.
COOLING DOWN
Jason Hammel likely wasn’t even drafted in your mixed league this season. Through his first 15 starts this season he is 8-3 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP which are stupendous numbers from a waiver-wire addition. Still, there are some warning signs that should be headed with Hammel.
(1) Though skilled, let’s not forget that the past two years his ERA was over 4.75 and his WHIP in the 1.40′s, and that for his career he owns a 4.80 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. You can partially blame Colorado of course, but those are still worse than big league average numbers.
(2) Though he’s up to 93 innings and 15 starts Hammel has never been able to throw 180 innings in a big league season, though he has been in the 170′s each of the past three years.
(3) He allowed eight runs Wednesday night and has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last nine outings. The other four times he’s allowed one or zero earned runs. That’s not exactly the type of consistency that we’d like to see.
(4) His current K/9 of 8.61 is two batters above his career rate.
(5) His current BAA of .227 is .043 points lower than it has ever been before. Part of the reason for that is that his line drive rate is currently 16.7 percent. Can a guy who owns a career mark of 20.3 percent, and one who has failed to better than rate in any of the last four seasons, keep the mark that low over the course of an entire season? Can a guy with a career 46 percent ground ball rate have a season where that mark is 54 percent?
I’m not saying it’s panic time with Hammel, but even if I was you got this guy for nothing meaning anything positive he has done is just gravy. What I am saying is that the best is likely already in the rear view mirror so it would be wise to kick the tires on the trade front and see what his value currently is on the trade market.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
The Mariners may not be known for their offense, but two players in particular have turned it on as of late to give the Mariners just what they needed. Justin Smoak and Joe Saunders have been on fire recently while showing no signs of slowing down as the Mariners continue to pile up runs, which is something they haven’t been able to do the past few years.
Smoak, who was acquired from the Rangers in the deal that sent Cliff Lee packing for The Lone Star State in 2010, has had a very up-and-down career thus far with the Mariners, but has swung his way back into fantasy relevancy after compiling five home runs with 14 RBIs in his last 12 games dating back to May 25. While it is unlikely he will be able to keep a one RBI per game pace, he can still be a solid fantasy contributor hitting near the middle of the Mariners lineup.
The main concern with Smoak moving forward is his below-average batting average. Right now he is sitting on a .229 batting average, and finished the 2011 season with a .234 batting average in 123 games played. So if you are a team that is struggling in that category, Smoak may not be the answer to your prayers moving forward. If that is the case you may want to consider his teammate Michael Saunders.
Saunders, who finished the 2011 season with a .149 batting average, worked on his mechanics this offseason and has swung his way into the Mariners everyday lineup. Currently Saunders is batting .277 with six home runs and 20 RBIs and has compiled five multi-hit games out of his last eight games. What is even more impressive is that in each of his multi-hit games he has recorded at least three hits including one four hit game.
His batting average will likely take a hit moving forward, but Saunders should be productive enough to be a starting fantasy outfielder in standard leagues. Whatever he fixed this offseason has really helped him take the steps in the right direction to become an everyday player on the major league level and with any luck he will be able to continue this hot streak for those in need of outfield help.
Either way, the Mariners future is starting to look promising with the recent success of both Smoak and Saunders, to go along with the likes of Jesus Montero, Kyle Seager and Ichiro Suzuki. This is really starting to look like a team to watch out for one or two years down the road.
If Smoak and Saunders aren’t available or don’t fit what you need on your team, below are a few other players that are available universally in a lot of fantasy leagues:
Jordan Pacheco, 1B, 3B (COL)–There is nothing flashy about Pacheco, but he has really gotten the job done for the Rockies since being recalled from Triple-A. Since May 15, Pacheco has just two games in which he has not recorded at least one hit, and if you do the math, that’s 20 out the last 22 games. That is very impressive for a young player, who had just 84 plate appearances on the major league level prior to the 2012 season. The Rockies are not ready to bring up their top third base prospect, Nolan Arenado, so Pacheco should be at the hot corner for the remainder of the season, so he is worth picking up if you need help in that area.
Ryan Theriot, 2B, SS (SF)–Theriot is a player that year-in and year-out makes it onto a waiver-wire article due to his hot streaks, but this time he may be becoming fixture in standard mixed leagues. As of Monday, Theriot was names the everyday second baseman by manager Bruce Bochy, so playing time will no longer be an issue for those interested in him. He has compiled five multi-hit games since becoming an everyday player for the Giants, with three of them coming in the last six games. While he isn’t known for power, Theriot can be a great help in runs scored, batting average and stolen bases in fantasy leagues.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF (NYM)–The Mets have too many players with too little spots to fill in their outfield, but Nieuwenhuis has been a fixture in the Mets outfield despite the overpopulation. Currently, he is batting .295 with three home runs and 20 RBIs, which are similar numbers to ones he put up last season before suffering a shoulder injury which cut his season short. Despite the fact that Jason Bay will be coming off of the disabled-list soon, Niewenhuis should continue to see regular playing time and he a solid fantasy starter as long as he continues to get on-base and get into scoring position.
Francisco Liriano, SP (MIN)–If you have played fantasy baseball for the last eight years, you know how inconsistent of a pitcher Liriano is, but since returning to the starting rotation he has been solid. He has lasted six innings in each of his last two starts, which is a victory in itself, but what is even more impressive is that he has just three walks combined in those two games with 17 strikeouts. While there is no way he will keep 17/3 strikeout to walk rate pace, he appears to have worked out his kinks and could be an asset moving forward. If you do pick him up be sure to start him in good matchups, since he is not fully trustworthy at this point.
Trevor Bauer, SP (ARI)–Reports out of Arizona say that Bauer is going to get called up soon, so now is the time to hit the waiver-wire and pick up this future stud. Despite being dominant on through all minor league levels, Bauer had command issues that have apparently been work out. So if you have to roster space and can way on him, Bauer is someone to invest in now because if you wait it out he will be gone once he gets called up.
Tom Wilhelmsen, RP (SEA)–The Mariners removed Brandon League from the closer role last week and since then Wilhelmsen appears to be their guy for now. He is a perfect two-for-two in save chances since taking over the role and has swing-and-miss stuff that can help you out in the strikeout category. While his time in the closer role may be short-lived in League can get his act together, he is still worth owning now in all fantasy formats.
Matthew Beck is a Fantasy Sports Columnist for Rotoinfo.com. If you have any questions or comments feel free to e-mail him at matthewbeck@rotoinfo.com. Also follow him on Twitter @MatthewRBeck for up-to-date Q&A and fantasy information.
The games have started. Too bad it’s been the Mariners and Athletics. There are still roster moves being made as we approach the actual start of the baseball season, and today I’ll hit on some of the players who fortunes might be a changing as we get ready for the calendar to his April.
Bartolo Colon tossed eight innings an allowed three hits an one run to the Mariners on the second day of the season. Felix Hernandez threw eight innings allowing five hits and one run on opening day against the Athletics. I’ll leave it to you to decide which hurler is going to be a better fantasy play in 2012.
Carl Crawford is going to start the season on the DL because of that wrist situation of his. Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine said that Crawford will likely need no more than 50 at-bats to get back in game shape, and that means we should, barring another setback, see him in the Red Sox outfield at some point in April. It’s hard to know what to do with Crawford, he is only a season removed from being an elite performer, but most seem to be on the side of the fence that suggests extreme skepticism. Still, let’s say that Crawford misses an entire month this season. Given Crawford’s career pace per 162 games (.293-14-77-99-51) that would equate to a season of roughly .293-12-64-83-43. Even if he “slumps” from those numbers, what about a .280-10-55-70-35 effort? There’s still plenty of value in that, isn’t there?
Dan Haren reported that he’s dealing with something that plagues him every spring – dead arm. “I’ve been battling it for a couple days,” Haren said. “Usually, right about now, if not a little bit before, you get it. It lasts about a week or so. I’m sure it’ll be fine.” While that make you uneasy about drafting Haren, or nervous as all get out if you’ve already drafted him, it should be pointed out that in 20.2 innings this spring his ERA is 2.18 and he has a 10.1 K/BB ratio. Seems like all pitchers should want to be dealing with a period of dead arm.
The Cubs decided to demote ground baller Randy Wells to the minors to allow him to continue to work out of the starting rotation. The reason he was removed from the big league rotation is because the Cubs are excited about Jeff Samardzija and his potential for the coming season. JS, that last name is a typists nightmare, has walked only one batter this spring, quite the change for a guy who has averaged 5.30 walks per nine for his career. If JS can continue to pound the strike zone, his impressive stuff could certainly lead to him being a strong option as a depth play in NL-only leagues. The guy has a heck of an arm.
The Marlins have two injured outfielders right now, though the team is expressing optimism with both. Ginacarlo Stanton is currently sidelined with a knee issue, but the team expects him to return to action Friday and to be just fine. As for Logan Morrison, the team believes that his knee should be good enough for him to make it out there on Opening Day as well. However, LoMo has appeared in just one Grapefruit League game this spring, and I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty darn worried about him at this point. I wouldn’t be shocked in the least if he didn’t perform poorly in April, so you might file this report in your mind. If it’s late April and Morrison is hitting .220 with no power, you might want to make a play to add LoMo on the cheap from a disgruntled owner.
Justin Smoak has started the year going 1-for-9 for the Mariners. The one hit was a homer at least. Still, we’re talking about a guy who literally has hit his weight during his career (.225). At some point Smoak is going to have to pick things up or he’ll cease to have relevance to the Mariners. How is that for overreacting to a small sample size?
Edinson Volquez lowered his spring ERA to 3.48 after allowing two runs in seven innings against the White Sox Wednesday. As I’ve said many times this offseason, Volquez is an excellent late round gamble to fill out a rotation. His combination of a power arm, 8.67 strikeouts per nine innings, the ballpark (Petco Park is arguably the best pitching yard in the game), and the fact that his ground ball rate has been at least 52 percent the past two years, paint him as just the type of guy you’ll want to take a chance on late. He’s a much better flier option than guys like Derek Lowe and John Lannan.
B.J. Upton will almost certainly start the regular season on the DL because of the back issue that arose when he collided with Desmond Jennings in the outfield weeks ago. The team has said all along that Upton was fine, that there was nothing to worry about, but turns out they were being less than honest about the whole situation. Their still saying that Upton is fine, this won’t be a long term concern, even Upton said the same thing, but the point is he’ll miss time the first month of the season. While this is a regrettable situation for anyone who has drafted Upton, it might represent a nice buy low opportunity. People are notoriously shy about drafting players that are injured, and they often bail on them when they are injured. Perhaps Upton will fall a few rounds or cost a few bucks less at your draft, or perhaps his current owner might accept a lesser player in exchange for Upton. Remember, he’s only likely to miss a couple of weeks, an in the grand scheme of things that means he could still play over 140 games so take advantage of a nervous owner if there is one in your league.
I did a draft last night on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. It was a standard 12 team mixed league, and here are the Draft Results. The reason I draw your attention to the draft is to make a point about how you should construct your team. In the 8th round I selected Brett Gardner, and in the 11th I drafted Mark Reynolds. Someone might look at this duo and think – one guy is all speed, the other is all power, and both have holes. Yes, both hitters do have issues, for Gardner a lack of power and run production, and for Reynolds a complete inability to reach even acceptable levels in batting average. But, what happens when you add the two of them together? Look what happens. Here are the 2011 numbers for each.
Combine those two sets of numbers together an I end up with two players who averaged 22 homers, 61 RBI, 86 runs scored and 27 steals. Toss in a .239 average an I basically added two Chris Young’s (.236-20-71-89-22). Remember, it’s not always about the individual players you draft, it’s how you construct your team with those players. Players may excel in a certain area, or fall flat in another, but when combined with the right pieces the end result could still give your squad a chance to emerge victorious.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
