BAUER MANIA NEEDS TO APPLY THE BREAKS?
Trevor Bauer is just about the hottest name in the fantasy game right now (I literally get about 10 questions a day from people about him). Here is what we know. He dominated at Double-A with a 1.68 ERA and 60 Ks in 48.1 innings. Moved up to Triple-A, it’s been more of the same with a 2.52 ERA and 31 Ks in 25 innings. That power arm is obviously why everyone is so excited about the next great strikeout arm in the game. However, three issues with 2012 expectations for the flamethrower need to be addressed.
(1) Even power arms don’t always burst on the scene with copious amounts of success. Matt Moore, every bit the the prospect that Bauer is, currently is sporting a 2-5 record with a 4.45 ERA and 1.48 WHIP for the Rays. The K’s have been there with 62 in 62.2 innings, but strikeouts don’t always translate into immediate success.
(2) Despite the accolades, and the massive arm, Bauer isn’t exactly a control ace. In 73.1 innings this season he’s walked 38 batters which leads to a 4.66 BB/9 mark. That’s an awful mark. If he comes up to the big leagues and struggles to throw strikes at that rate it’s going to be darn near impossible for him to be consistency successful. Don’t forget that minor leaguers aren’t in the bigs for a reason. One of the main reasons is that many of the hitters are unable to distinguish between pitches thrown by elite arms. It’s fair to ponder just how many of the strikeouts that Bauer has picked up are on pitches that aren’t strikes. If big league hitters lay off those pitches is it or is it not possible that Bauer’s walk rate could tick upwards a bit in the bigs? Just a thought.
(3) When will Bauer be called up? Everyone assumes it will be any day now, but that’s not necessarily the case. Don’t trust me, just read the worst of GM Kevin Towers.
“He’s pretty much done everything he probably could do at Double-A and Triple-A and he’s been very successful at it. Sometimes you’ve just got to wait your turn, wait for that opportunity…Right now, I don’t know who I’d take out of the rotation to make room for him. I don’t want to bring him up into the bullpen.”
The D’backs have Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill and Joe Saunders in their rotation, and none of them will be removed. The only potential drop out is Wade Miley, but would it make any sense to drop the guy with the best ERA (2.53) and WHIP (1.09) of the group? Of course not. Until there is an injury or someone gets bombed a few times in a row, there just isn’t a place for Bauer to enter the rotation.
AROUND THE BASES
Freddie Freeman had x-rays take on his left finger and luckily for the the Bravos and fantasy players, they came back negative. At this point the club is professing faith that he will be able to avoid the DL, and though he is hitting a mere .253 he is on pace to record roughly 100 RBI which would be pretty darn impressive for a second year player.
AL-only leaguers take note –Kosuke Fukudome was placed on the DL with a back issue that has been bothering him since the weekend though it’s not looking like a major loss for the White Sox who have gotten nothing from him thus far (.174 average). The team doesn’t expect the injury to linger meaning a return in 15 days seems likely, but the injury will open a door for Jordan Danks – can he walk through it? A perennial prospect for a breakout/breakthrough, the younger Danks, his brother is John, was hitting .302 with seven homers and five steals in 56 games at the Triple-A level. Danks possesses the skills to steal a bag, and he’s projected to have 20 homer power as well, but he’s also a strikeout artist on par with Adam Dunn, so it’s not like he is a lock to have success in his call up. Still, the Sox have long thought that the younger Danks could be a starter in their outfield, so perhaps this will finally be his chance to reward that confidence.
It’s easy to bash Bryan LaHair, and I admit that I’ve been one of the chorus who has been screaming that a slow down was coming. Oh it did too. LaHair hit .253 in May and did you realize that he’s gone deep just one time in 17 games? So I was 100 percent right. Still, maybe we’ve all gone overboard in the other direction at this point. In 163 at-bats the guy is hitting .307 with a .387 OBP and that OPS is pretty amazing at .964 – that’s the 11th best mark in baseball folks better than Andrew McCutchen (.961), Adam Jones (.936), Miguel Cabrera (.942) etc. I still see a further regression on the way for LaHair, but when all is said and done I think he will have produced numbers that will surprise everyone given what the expectations were back in March.
Brad Lidge has been activated from the DL returning after a only a couple of minor league rehab outings. With Tyler Clippard continuing to excel it’s unlikely that Lidge will be put into the 9th inning at any point in the near future, but the Nats have long expressed the belief that Clippard is best utilized in a setup role where he can work more than an inning if needed. Does that mean a gradual move is made to change the role of the two players? How does the fact that Henry Rodriguez was placed on the DL effect the bullpen? Is there now more of a need for Clippard to resume that setup role while Lidge slides back into his familiar 9th inning role? What happens when Storen returns in a month or so? This situation is starting to look awfully dicey, but for now you’ll still want to be the owner of Clippard.
The Rangers have decided to return Alexi Ogando to the starting rotation given the uncertainty with the shoulder of Derek Holland (the young lefty is getting his wing checked out by doctors after being placed on the 15 day DL with shoulder fatigue). Ogando has excelled in the bullpen this year with a 2.27 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 33 Ks in 31.2 innings, but as you all know he was also very effective last year as a starting pitcher before seeing his production wane as the innings piled up. In 29 starts last season he went 13-8 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, though his K/9 rate was under seven per nine innings. Obviously Ogando isn’t ready to go seven innings at this point, he may not even be able to go five, and he’s only getting the shot to start because of the health woes of Holland, but if he were to stick in the rotation he could be a difference maker meaning it would be wise to grab him if he is on waivers given the chance he could remain in the rotation pending the news with Holland.
AL-only leaguers take note Part II – The Twins optioned Cole DeVries down to the minors recalling Chris Parmalee. Given a chance at some substantial playing time earlier this year, Parmalee disappointed with a .179-0-3 line over 92 plate appearances doing his best imitation of a pylon. He had an immense amount of success in Triple-A hitting .391 with four homers, 12 RBI and 12 runs in just 14 games. He’s not going to have an everyday job just given to him at this point, but obviously if he can hold on to 80 percent of his minor league work the Twins will likely find plenty of at-bats for him.
Grady Sizemore recently had to slow down his running in his attempt to return from injury and surgery. Wow, a setback, I’m shocked.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
