WHAT MAKES A GOOD PITCHER?
I got blasted by a few people on Twitter today for my thoughts on Sean Marshall (you can find the link to my Twitter account below). What did I say? I said that Marshall has pitched at an “elite” level this year. I then got a few of those ‘Ray you’re an idiot he has a 4.80 ERA and 1.67 WHIP this year.’ I stood my ground. Why? Because facts are facts. I know we’re only talking 15 innings here, but the fact of the matter is that Marshall has pitched at an elite level despite what the ERA and WHIP say. You want proof? Here you go.
Marshall has a 13.20 K/9 mark, the 13th best in baseball amongst pitchers with at least 15 innings.
Marshall has a 1.80 BB/9 mark.
Marshall has a 7.33 K/BB ratio. A mark like this gets you to the HOF by the way.
His 2.60 GB/FB ratio is superb, and better than guys like Craig Kimbrel, John Axford, Brett Myers, Fernando Rodney, Brandon League, Jonathan Broxton, Joe Nathan, J.J. Putz, Rafael Soriano, etc.
How about this.
For the year Marshall is BETTER than Aroldis Chapman in BB/9, K/BB, GB-rate and GB/FB ratio. Better. He’s also just two tenths behind Chapman in my favorite xFIP.
I’m not saying that Marshall hasn’t made some mistakes, but the fact of the matter is that his skills are elite even if few people seem to recognize the fact.
STRUGGLING HITTERS
Willie Bloomquist is batting .275 but… OK, I jest. For once, he actually isn’t struggling, he’s doing well. Moreover, he’s been killing it the past week as he’s boosted his average up from .214 just 10 days ago. Willie has at least two hits in six of seven games an in three of those contests he has three hits.
Todd Helton has gotten old before our eyes. Hitting a mere .220 on the year, Helton has but a mere RBI in his last nine games. A career .321 hitter, Helton currently has an OBP of .307, just .113 points below his career level. Helton will certainly rebound though with this start dreams of him matching even lats years muted totals (.302-14-69-59) appear unlikely to be answered.
Derek Jeter is struggling, of course that’s if you can struggle while hitting .348. Jeter has hit .303 in May with hits in “only” 11 of 12 games for the Yankees.
Howie Kendrick is hitting .256 for the Angels. I don’t feel like I even need to give a real breakdown to suggest that the number will increase in what should be one of the most obvious statements of the day. A career .290 hitter, only once has Kendrick hit under .285 in a season and that was when he he hit .279 in 2010. Even with his limited average he’s still on pace to go 15/10 with 68 runs scored so he’s been a passable play at second even while struggling.
Jhonny Peralta powered 21 balls into the seats while racking up 86 RBI last season as one of the best power bats among shortstops. This season through 134 at-bats he has two homers and 12 RBI. As disappointing is the fact that his average has fallen from .299 last year down to .246 this year. However, gotta be honest here, Peralta is way more likely to hit .246 this year than .299 given that he owns a career mark of .267 and that he’s only hit .280 twice in his career. As for the homer dip, I’m a bit more concerned there. First, his ground ball rate is at a three year high at 42 percent, though his career mark is 44 percent so there isn’t anything crazy about his current number. Second, and of bigger concern, is the fact that his fly ball rate is 27 percent. Logic tells you that number will rise as the season progresses given that he’s been over 43 percent the last two years and because he owns a 36.0 percent mark for his career. I’d say the sample size is to blame here, though I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that he did have one year, 2009, in which he finished the year with a 30.6 percent fly ball rate. Third, his HR/F rate is 11 percent for his career but he’s currently sitting at 7.1 percent. Still, the last time he posted a mark that equaled his career rate was 2008, and in two of the past three years he ended the year with a mark in below eight percent. Add that all up and there would appear to be a very real concern about Peralta reach the 21-86 marks he first up there for the Tigers in his first full season for the club.
Alexei Ramirez has been one of the most consistent options at shortstop the past four years ending each year with a batting line of at least .269-15-68-65-7. Nothing stands out there I know, but remember, those are his worst totals the last four years meaning that every season Alexei has been either in, or right on the cusp, of being a top-10 shortstop. So why in the world has he been so bad this year hitting .200 with one homer, 17 RBI, 11 runs and three steals? Well, as awful as he has been he’s still on pace for about 65 RBI and 11 thefts, so he’s not off the pace in those two categories. The average drop though is befuddling. The last two years Ramirez had a line drive rate of 19 percent. Given that his batting average is down 70 points you’d figure that he’s just not hitting the ball hard, right? The truth of the matter though is that he is hitting it as solidly as ever with a 19.1 percent line drive rate. He’s also hit a few more balls on the ground which should, in theory, help him a wee bit in the batting average category. Given those facts I look at his BABIP as a major culprit here. Ramirez has posted a mark between .288 and .300 each of his four years, once again flashing his trademark consistency. However, that mark has fallen down to .234 this year. I’m preaching patience there as I think things will even out though that is not a statement from me that you shouldn’t sit him on your bench until some of those batted balls start falling for hits.
Ichiro Suzuki hit .272 last year so his current mark of .283 is a wee improvement, but well below his standard of greatness (.325 for his career). With 22 runs on the year he’s on pace to fall just short of the 80 runs he totaled last year (his current pace equates to about 77). The thing that somewhat saved Ichiro last year were the 40 steals. Unfortunately he’s currently swiped six bases which leaves him on pace to steal about 21 bags this season which would be the first time that he failed to steal more than 26 bases in a season (the 26 thefts in 2009 is the only time in his career that he has stolen fewer than 30 bases). I guess it’s time to face facts with Ichiro as we’ve got nearly 900 at-bats from him at his current level of blahness. The production that made him a fantasy star isn’t coming back, an unless he picks up the stolen base pace he’s going to limp home with number that would look in place on the back of a ball card of a fella like Denard Span.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
