Reds 9 Giants 0

NL Division Series Game 2, AT&T Park

The Reds Go Home To Cincinnati For Game 3 With A 2-0 Lead In The Best-of-five Series After Pummelling Matt Cain And Madison Bumgarner In San Francisco.

These Are The Key Game-changing Plays As Defined By The Change In Win Expectancy. The Result Of Every At-bat In Every Baseball Game Changes The win Expectancy Based On A Probability Chart Of Historical Data. We Go Down The Line On The WE Chart For The Game At Fangraphs.com

1. Cincinnati: Scott Rolen, Run-scoring Single In The Top Of The Fourth Inning.
Win Expectancy Before: 68.3%
Win Expectancy After: 82.8%
Net Change: 14.4%

Bumgarner, The Giants Starter, Got Himself Into Trouble Quickly In The Fourth On Back-to-back Singles By Joey Votto And Ryan Ludwick To Start The Inning. One Out Later, Rolen Made The Score 2-0 With His Single To Right That Scored Votto. Bumgarner Lasted Only 4 1/3 Innings, The Fourth Time In His Last Seven Starts That He Failed To Get Through The Fifth Inning.

2. Cincinnati: Ryan Ludwick, Solo Home Run In The Top Of The Second.
Win Expectancy Before: 50.0%
Win Expectancy After: 62.1%
Net Change: 12.1%

Ludwick’s Homer Gave Reds Starter Bronson Arroyo All The Support He Would Need. By The Time Brandon Belt Got The Giants’ First Hit In The Bottom Of The Fifth, San Francisco Was Down 4-0 And Only Had A 6.5% Win Expectancy. Arroyo Just Kept Bleeding The Giants Dry. In The Fourth Through The Six Innings, Arroyo Got Eight Of His Nine Outs On Ground Balls. One Of  The Drawbacks Of Win Probability Added As A Statistic To Judge Performance Is That Arroyo Was So Efficient, And The Reds So Far Ahead Early, That His WPA Of .261 Underrepresented His Dominance.

3. Cincinnati: Ryan Hanigan, Two-run Single In The Top Of The Fourth.
Win Expectancy Before: 82.8%
Win Expectancy After: 90.7%
Net Change: 7.9%

On Rolen’s Single, Giants Right Fielder Hunter Pence Missed All The Cutoff Men, Allowing Ludwick And Rolen To Move To Second And Third. Hanigan Followed With His Single To Score Both Runs.

Win Probability Added Leaders: Arroyo, .261; Rolen, .162; Ludwick, .159.
WPA Losers: Bumgarner, –.264 (–.253 As Pitcher; –.011 As Hitter); Giants CF Angel Pagan, –.041; Giants LF Gregor Blanco, –.039.