Yankees 7 Orioles 2

AL Division Series, Game 1, Camden Yards

The Yankees, Who Finished Two Games Up On The Orioles In A Razor-thin AL East Race, Strike First In The Series With A Five-run Ninth Inning To Take Game 1 At Camden Yards.

These Are The Key Game-changing Plays As Defined By The Change In Win Expectancy. The Result Of Every At-bat In Every Baseball Game Changes The win Expectancy Based On A Probability Chart Of Historical Data. We Go Down The Line On The WE Chart For The Game At Fangraphs.com

1. New York: Russell Martin, Solo Home Run In The Top Of The Ninth Inning.
Win Expectancy Before: 50.0%
Win Expectancy After: 83.2%
Net Change: 33.2%

Martin’s Homer Leading Off The Ninth Swung The Win Expectancy In The Yankees Favour, Kicking Off A Five-run Inning Against Orioles Closer Jim Johnson And Tommy Hunter In Mop-up Duty.

2. New York: CC Sabathia Strands A Leadoff Double In The Bottom Of The Eighth.
Win Expectancy Before: 25.9%
Win Expectancy After: 50.0%
Net Change: 24.1%

After J.J. Hardy Led Off With A Double In The 2-2 Game, The Orioles’ Win Expectancy Was 74.1%. With A Runner On Second And None Out, The Average Team Will Score 1.1 Runs In The Inning. But Sabathia Struck Out Adam Jones, Sawed Off Matt Wieters’ Bat For A Foul Popup And Got Mark Reynolds To Ground Out To End The Inning And Return The Equilibrium Of The Game Back To 50%.

3. Baltimore: Robert Andino Throws Out Martin At Home In The Top Of The Seventh Inning.
Win Expectancy Before: 64.6%
Win Expectancy After: 49.9%
Net Change: 14.7%

Martin And Raul Ibanez Walked To Open The Inning And They Moved Up A Base On Derek Jeter’s Sacrifice Bunt. WIth The Infield Pulled In, Ichiro Suzuki Hit A Grounder To Andino At Second. Andino’s Throw Short-hopped Wieters At The Plate, But The Orioles Catcher Made A Clever Scoop And Tagged Out Martin Trying To Score.

Win Probability Added Leaders: Sabathia, .335; Martin, .309; Orioles Reliever Darren O’Day, .234.
WPA Losers: Johnson, –.489; Jones, –.160; Wieters, –.143.