Cardinals 12 Nationals 4

NL Division Series Game 2, Nationals Park

A Three-run Second Inning By St. Louis, Followed By A Single Run In The Fourth And Two More In The Fifth Bled All The Drama Out Of This Game. Nationals Starter Jordan Zimmermann Faced 15 Batters And Allowed Seven Hits And Five Runs.

These Are The Key Game-changing Plays As Defined By The Change In Win Expectancy. The Result Of Every At-bat In Every Baseball Game Changes The win Expectancy Based On A Probability Chart Of Historical Data. We Go Down The Line On The WE Chart For The Game At Fangraphs.com

1. St. Louis: David Freese, Run-scoring Double In The Bottom Of The Second Inning.
Win Expectancy Before: 58.1%
Win Expectancy After: 69.7%
Net Change: 11.6%

Washington Jumped To A 1-0 Lead In The Top Of The Second But The Cardinals Responded With Three In The Bottom. The First Four Batters Reached Base; Freese Was The Third In The Chain, Doubling Home Allen Craig And Sending Yadier Molina To Third. Freese Now Has 23 RBIs In 21 Post-season Games.

2. Washington: Zimmermann, Run-scoring Single In The Top Of The Second.
Win Expectancy Before: 54.1%
Win Expectancy After: 64.4%
Net Change: 10.3%

The Nationals Starter Isn’t A Terrible Hitter For A Pitcher, He Has 20 Hits Over The Last Two Regular Seasons. He Helped His Cause By Driving In Ian Desmond And Putting Washington Ahead 1-0.

3. David Descalso, Run-scoring Single In The Bottom Of The Second.
Win Expectancy Before: 69.7%
Win Expectancy After: 77.1%
Net Change: 7.4%

Descalsco Hit Next After Freese And Singled Home Molina. One Out Later, Freese Scored On Skip Schumacher’s Ground Out.

Win Probability Added Leaders: Freese, .118; Cardinals 1B Allen Craig, .114; Descalso, .084.
WPA Losers: Zimmermann, –.258 (–.361 As Pitcher, .103 As Hitter); Nationals C Kurt Suzuki, –.104; Nationals 3B Ryan Zimmerman, –.076.