Orioles 3 Yankees 2

AL Division Series Game 2, Camden Yards

Baltimore Evened The Series Heading To Yankee Stadium For Game 3 By Outpitching Andy Pettitte, New York’s Most Accomplished Post-season Hurler.

These Are The Key Game-changing Plays As Defined By The Change In Win Expectancy. The Result Of Every At-bat In Every Baseball Game Changes The win Expectancy Based On A Probability Chart Of Historical Data. We Go Down The Line On The WE Chart For The Game At Fangraphs.com

1. Baltimore: Brian Matusz’s Eighth Inning.
Win Expectancy Before: 65.5%
Win Expectancy After: 86.5%
Net Change: 21.0%

The Erstwhile Phenom, Who Was The No. 4 Overall Pick In The 2008 Draft And Was In The Majors 14 Months Later, Has Become A Shutdown Reliever Since Being Converted Over The Summer In The Minors. He Was 5-10 With A 5.42 ERA When He Was Demoted After His July 1 Start. Recalled In Late August, He Made 17 Regular-season Appearance In Relief, Allowing Just Five Hits And Two Runs In 13 Innings, Striking Out 18 And Walking Three. On The ESPN Radio Broadcast, Dan Shulman Said Matusz Said The Difference Was The Adrenaline Pump He Got From Relieving And The Ability To Freely Attack Hitters.

Matusz Relieved Darren O’Day In The Seventh And Struck Out Nick Swisher With Runners On Second And Third. In The Eighth, A Leadoff Single By Mark Teixeira Added 8.6% To The Yankees Win Expectancy. But Matusz Clipped Off A Full 21% By Striking Out Russell Martin And Curtis Granderson And Getting Eduardo Nunez To Foul Out To First.

2. Baltimore: Chris Davis, Two-run Single In The Bottom Of The Third.
Win Expectancy Before: 46.7%
Win Expectancy After: 66.1%
Net Change: 19.4%

Yankees Starter Andy Pettitte Didn’t Get In Trouble Until There Were Two Out When Robert Andino And Nate McLouth Singled And J.J. Hardy Walked To Load The Bases. Davis, One Of The Unlikely Heroes This Season In Baltimore’s Island Of Misfit Toys, Singled To Score Andino And McLouth For A 2-1 Orioles’ Lead.

3. Baltimore: Wei-Yin Chen’s Fourth Inning.
Win Expectancy Before: 49.7%
Win Expectancy After: 68.5%
Net Change: 18.8%

Right After Pettitte’s Bases-loaded Trouble, The Orioles Starter Put Himself In The Same Position In The Top Of The Fourth. With One Out, Teixeira Singled, Martin Walked And Granderson Singled To Load The Bases. With The Bases Loaded And One Out, The Average Team Will Score About 1.5 Runs In The Inning. As A Result, Baltimore’s Win Expectancy Has Dipped Below 50%. But Chen Got Nunez To Pop Up To Short (–9.4%) And Derek Jeter To Ground Into A Fielder’s Choice (–9.4%) To Get Out Of The Jam And Restore Baltimore’s Win Expectancy To 68.5%.

Win Probability Added Leaders: Matusz, .188; Davis, .176; Orioles Closer Jim Johnson, .168; Chen, .133.
WPA Losers: Swisher, –.214; Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez, –.212; Nunez, –.090.